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Toronto Marlies v Charlotte Checkers

Kickoff: 2026-04-04 20:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Toronto Marlies (Local)

Prediction 33.49%2.99fair odd
EV -6.56%
Edge -2.35%
Kelly -3.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.47%33.38%33.49%34.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.702.752.7940.00%37.01%36.36%35.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Charlotte Checkers (Visit)

Prediction 43.97%2.27fair odd
EV -1.94%
Edge -0.871%
Kelly -1.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.57%44.29%43.97%46.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.932.132.152.2351.81%46.99%46.51%44.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.54%4.44fair odd
EV -4.67%
Edge -1.11%
Kelly -1.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.26%22.33%22.54%24.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.703.913.804.2327.03%25.59%26.32%23.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Toronto Marlies (Local): 33.49%; Charlotte Checkers (Visit): 43.97%; Draw: 22.54%. For Charlotte Checkers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.27. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.23, with an expected value of -1.94%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.79I 35.84%NM 33.68%EV -6.56%E -2.35%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 44.11%EV -6.34%E -2.98%K -5.61%G +0.000%4.23I 23.64%NM 22.21%EV -4.67%E -1.11%K -1.45%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 09:30
Unibet (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -7.89%E -2.87%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.60%EV -5.46%E -2.54%K -4.75%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -5.35%E -1.27%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-04 20:04
Unibet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.82%EV -7.89%E -2.87%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.71%EV -1.94%E -0.871%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -14.36%E -3.78%K -5.13%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-03 22:24
Casumo🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.82%EV -7.89%E -2.87%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.71%EV -1.94%E -0.871%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -14.36%E -3.78%K -5.13%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-03 22:25
Unibet (NL)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.82%EV -7.89%E -2.87%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.71%EV -1.94%E -0.871%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -14.36%E -3.78%K -5.13%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-03 22:25
Grosvenor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.82%EV -7.89%E -2.87%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.71%EV -1.94%E -0.871%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -14.36%E -3.78%K -5.13%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-03 22:24
Svenska Spel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.82%EV -7.89%E -2.87%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.71%EV -1.94%E -0.871%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -14.36%E -3.78%K -5.13%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-03 22:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.82%EV -7.89%E -2.87%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.71%EV -1.94%E -0.871%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -14.36%E -3.78%K -5.13%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-03 22:24
PMU (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.82%EV -7.89%E -2.87%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.71%EV -1.94%E -0.871%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -14.36%E -3.78%K -5.13%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-03 22:25
Codere (IT)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.75%EV -7.89%E -2.87%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 44.15%EV -10.30%E -5.05%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.09%EV -12.11%E -3.11%K -4.18%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-04 06:30
Tipico (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.47%EV -7.89%E -2.87%K -4.51%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 46.27%EV -15.13%E -7.84%K -16.27%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.26%EV -5.35%E -1.27%K -1.67%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-04 18:30
1xBet🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 34.17%EV -8.23%E -3.00%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.54%EV -5.46%E -2.54%K -4.75%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.29%EV -5.35%E -1.27%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-04 19:59
Betway🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.19%EV -11.24%E -4.24%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -7.66%E -3.65%K -6.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -9.86%E -2.46%K -3.29%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-04 20:04
LeoVegas🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.04%EV -11.24%E -4.24%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 41.57%EV -4.58%E -2.11%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.38%EV -16.62%E -4.49%K -6.15%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-03 22:25
Unibet (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 32.84%EV -11.24%E -4.24%K -6.81%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 43.95%EV -12.94%E -6.53%K -13.20%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.21%EV -15.49%E -4.13%K -5.63%G +0.000%14.9%2026-04-04 19:49
Winamax (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.45%EV -12.92%E -4.97%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.70%EV -9.86%E -4.81%K -9.39%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.85%EV -7.60%E -1.85%K -2.45%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-04 20:05
Betclic (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 33.74%EV -14.59%E -5.72%K -9.42%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.01%EV -12.06%E -6.03%K -12.06%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.25%EV -16.62%E -4.49%K -6.15%G +0.000%16.2%2026-04-04 20:04
Winamax (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.29%EV -16.27%E -6.51%K -10.85%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 42.86%EV -12.06%E -6.03%K -12.06%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.86%EV -15.49%E -4.13%K -5.63%G +0.000%16.7%2026-04-04 20:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.22I 45.05%NM 45.05%1.82I 54.95%NM 54.95%-0.0%2026-04-04 20:00
theScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%5.1%2026-04-04 20:04
Bet Right🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%5.3%2026-04-04 18:44
Bally Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%7.5%2026-04-03 17:50
betPARX🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%7.5%2026-04-03 17:50
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%7.5%2026-04-04 06:34
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.15%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.85%7.9%2026-04-04 07:19
Smarkets◎2.08I 48.08%NM 44.39%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.61%8.3%2026-04-04 08:04
BetRivers🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.76%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.24%8.6%2026-04-03 17:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.26%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.74%9.4%2026-04-04 19:49