The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Texas Stars v San Diego Gulls

Kickoff: 2026-03-01 01:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Texas Stars (Local)

Prediction 36.42%2.75fair odd
EV -5.32%
Edge -2.04%
Kelly -3.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.50%35.96%36.42%36.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.492.502.6042.55%40.16%40.00%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

San Diego Gulls (Visit)

Prediction 40.73%2.46fair odd
EV -5.09%
Edge -2.19%
Kelly -3.83%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.65%40.55%40.73%41.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.262.262.3347.62%44.30%44.25%42.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.85%4.38fair odd
EV -4.71%
Edge -1.13%
Kelly -1.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.04%23.49%22.85%25.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.933.954.1728.57%25.45%25.32%23.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Texas Stars (Local): 36.42%; San Diego Gulls (Visit): 40.73%; Draw: 22.85%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.38. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.17, with an expected value of -4.71%; they did not produce positive expected value.

11 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.25%EV -5.32%E -2.04%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 41.15%EV -6.72%E -2.94%K -5.21%G +0.000%4.17I 23.98%NM 22.60%EV -4.71%E -1.13%K -1.49%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-28 14:00
Tipico (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.50%EV -5.32%E -2.04%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.87%EV -8.35%E -3.71%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.63%EV -20.02%E -5.72%K -8.01%G +0.000%11.5%2026-02-28 11:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.43%EV -7.14%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 40.92%EV -7.54%E -3.32%K -5.93%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.66%EV -6.31%E -1.54%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-28 11:00
1xBet🎯2.53I 39.53%NM 35.99%EV -7.87%E -3.11%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.02%EV -9.57%E -4.31%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 22.99%EV -9.51%E -2.40%K -3.21%G +0.000%9.8%2026-02-28 14:00
Unibet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.96%EV -8.96%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.65%EV -5.09%E -2.19%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.39%EV -9.74%E -2.47%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-28 09:04
Grosvenor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.96%EV -8.96%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.65%EV -5.09%E -2.19%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.39%EV -9.74%E -2.47%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-28 09:04
Unibet (NL)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.96%EV -8.96%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.65%EV -5.09%E -2.19%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.39%EV -9.74%E -2.47%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-28 09:04
Casumo🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.96%EV -8.96%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.65%EV -5.09%E -2.19%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.39%EV -9.74%E -2.47%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-28 09:04
ATG (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.96%EV -8.96%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.65%EV -5.09%E -2.19%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.39%EV -9.74%E -2.47%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-28 09:04
Svenska Spel🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.96%EV -8.96%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.65%EV -5.09%E -2.19%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.39%EV -9.74%E -2.47%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-28 09:04
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -8.96%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.61%EV -8.35%E -3.71%K -6.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -8.60%E -2.15%K -2.87%G +0.000%9.4%2026-02-28 11:00
Codere (IT)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.36%EV -9.69%E -3.91%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 40.81%EV -9.98%E -4.52%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.83%EV -9.74%E -2.47%K -3.30%G +0.000%10.9%2026-02-28 11:00
Winamax (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.88%EV -10.78%E -4.40%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.08%EV -10.39%E -4.72%K -8.66%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.04%EV -6.31%E -1.54%K -2.04%G +0.000%10.7%2026-02-28 11:00
LeoVegas🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.88%EV -11.51%E -4.74%K -8.05%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.84%EV -8.35%E -3.71%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.28%EV -12.03%E -3.12%K -4.22%G +0.000%11.6%2026-02-28 09:04
Winamax (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 36.64%EV -14.42%E -6.14%K -10.68%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.00%EV -14.46%E -6.89%K -13.15%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.36%EV -12.03%E -3.12%K -4.22%G +0.000%16.1%2026-02-28 11:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 36.26%EV -14.42%E -6.14%K -10.68%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.58%EV -14.46%E -6.89%K -13.15%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 23.16%EV -15.91%E -4.32%K -5.94%G +0.000%17.3%2026-03-01 00:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (11)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Bet Right🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%5.1%2026-03-01 00:44
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%5.6%2026-02-28 11:00
Bovada🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%6.8%2026-03-01 00:11
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%7.9%2026-02-28 11:05
BetRivers🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.92%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.08%8.2%2026-02-28 09:04
Bally Bet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.92%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.08%8.2%2026-02-28 09:04
betPARX🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.92%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.08%8.2%2026-02-28 09:04
Betr (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%8.2%2026-02-28 07:34
Smarkets◎1.94I 51.55%NM 47.57%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.43%8.4%2026-02-28 13:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.23%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.77%9.1%2026-03-01 00:44
Kalshi◎1.67I 59.88%NM 50.74%1.72I 58.14%NM 49.26%18.0%2026-03-01 00:44