The School of Odds
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Texas Stars v Ontario Reign

Kickoff: 2026-10-25 00:08 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Texas Stars (Local)

Prediction 36.79%2.72fair odd
EV -6.18%
Edge -2.42%
Kelly -3.99%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.42%36.79%37.40%37.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.442.452.5544.44%40.96%40.82%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ontario Reign (Visit)

Prediction 40.69%2.46fair odd
EV -3.16%
Edge -1.33%
Kelly -2.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.96%40.69%40.06%42.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.262.282.3848.78%44.18%43.86%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.52%4.44fair odd
EV -2.50%
Edge -0.577%
Kelly -0.750%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.58%22.52%22.54%23.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.703.994.004.3327.03%25.08%25.00%23.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Texas Stars (Local): 36.79%; Ontario Reign (Visit): 40.69%; Draw: 22.52%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.44. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.33, with an expected value of -2.50%; they did not produce positive expected value.

9 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Betway🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.42%EV -6.18%E -2.42%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.01%EV -12.52%E -5.82%K -10.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -9.93%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-25 00:00
1xBet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.08%EV -7.29%E -2.89%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 41.34%EV -8.04%E -3.56%K -6.38%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.58%EV -2.50%E -0.577%K -0.750%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 23:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -8.02%E -3.21%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.16%EV -12.52%E -5.82%K -10.88%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.58%EV -5.42%E -1.29%K -1.69%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-25 00:05
Unibet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -9.86%E -4.03%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.96%EV -3.16%E -1.33%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.18%EV -9.93%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-24 09:15
Casumo🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -9.86%E -4.03%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.96%EV -3.16%E -1.33%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.18%EV -9.93%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-24 09:15
Grosvenor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -9.86%E -4.03%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.96%EV -3.16%E -1.33%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.18%EV -9.93%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-24 09:14
Unibet (NL)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -9.86%E -4.03%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.96%EV -3.16%E -1.33%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.18%EV -9.93%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-24 09:14
ATG (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -9.86%E -4.03%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.96%EV -3.16%E -1.33%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.18%EV -9.93%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-24 09:15
Svenska Spel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -9.86%E -4.03%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.96%EV -3.16%E -1.33%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.18%EV -9.93%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-24 09:15
Unibet (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.55%EV -9.86%E -4.03%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.00%EV -6.41%E -2.79%K -4.93%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.44%EV -7.68%E -1.87%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-24 22:40
Codere (IT)🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 37.40%EV -11.33%E -4.70%K -8.04%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.06%EV -8.45%E -3.75%K -6.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.54%EV -9.93%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-24 22:45
Betclic (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 35.82%EV -11.70%E -4.88%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.94%EV -14.55%E -6.93%K -13.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.24%EV -16.68%E -4.51%K -6.18%G +0.000%16.3%2026-10-25 00:02
Winamax (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 35.68%EV -11.70%E -4.88%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 41.78%EV -16.58%E -8.09%K -15.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.54%EV -14.43%E -3.80%K -5.15%G +0.000%16.8%2026-10-25 00:05
Unibet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 37.67%EV -17.22%E -7.65%K -13.78%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 39.42%EV -12.52%E -5.82%K -10.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 22.91%EV -16.68%E -4.51%K -6.18%G +0.000%18.0%2026-10-24 23:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (9)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Bet Right🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.42%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.58%5.4%2026-10-24 22:55
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%5.6%2026-10-25 00:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.40%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.60%7.1%2026-10-24 23:05
betPARX🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.33%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.67%7.8%2026-10-24 09:14
Bally Bet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.33%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.67%7.8%2026-10-24 09:15
BetRivers🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.46%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.54%8.1%2026-10-24 09:15
Smarkets◎1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%8.2%2026-10-24 22:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.23%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.77%9.1%2026-10-24 22:55
Kalshi◎1.82I 54.95%NM 48.15%1.69I 59.17%NM 51.85%14.1%2026-10-25 00:05