The School of Odds
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Texas Stars v Iowa Wild

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 23:59 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Texas Stars (Local)

Prediction 33.62%2.97fair odd
EV -7.55%
Edge -2.75%
Kelly -4.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.01%33.95%33.64%36.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.612.552.7540.00%38.34%39.22%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Iowa Wild (Visit)

Prediction 44.02%2.27fair odd
EV +3.45%
Edge +1.47%
Kelly +2.56%
Growth +0.088%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.50%43.82%43.95%44.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.962.192.162.3551.02%45.75%46.30%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.36%4.47fair odd
EV -3.40%
Edge -0.787%
Kelly -1.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.35%22.23%22.40%24.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.003.954.3225.97%25.00%25.32%23.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Texas Stars (Local): 33.62%; Iowa Wild (Visit): 44.02%; Draw: 22.36%. For Iowa Wild (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.27. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.45%.

8 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.40%EV -14.28%E -5.60%K -9.21%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.50%EV +3.45%E +1.47%K +2.56%G +0.088%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.11%EV -13.91%E -3.61%K -4.88%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-03 09:50
PMU (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.40%EV -14.28%E -5.60%K -9.21%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.50%EV +3.45%E +1.47%K +2.56%G +0.088%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.11%EV -13.91%E -3.61%K -4.88%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-03 09:49
Unibet (NL)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.40%EV -14.28%E -5.60%K -9.21%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.50%EV +3.45%E +1.47%K +2.56%G +0.088%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.11%EV -13.91%E -3.61%K -4.88%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-03 09:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.40%EV -14.28%E -5.60%K -9.21%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.50%EV +3.45%E +1.47%K +2.56%G +0.088%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.11%EV -13.91%E -3.61%K -4.88%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-03 09:50
Grosvenor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.40%EV -14.28%E -5.60%K -9.21%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.50%EV +3.45%E +1.47%K +2.56%G +0.088%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.11%EV -13.91%E -3.61%K -4.88%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-03 09:50
Casumo🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.40%EV -14.28%E -5.60%K -9.21%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.50%EV +3.45%E +1.47%K +2.56%G +0.088%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.11%EV -13.91%E -3.61%K -4.88%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-03 09:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.40%EV -14.28%E -5.60%K -9.21%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.50%EV +3.45%E +1.47%K +2.56%G +0.088%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.11%EV -13.91%E -3.61%K -4.88%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-03 09:50
GTbets🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.05%EV -9.23%E -3.42%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.63%EV -2.27%E -1.02%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.24I 23.58%NM 22.32%EV -5.19%E -1.22%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-03 09:49
1xBet🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 35.12%EV -10.58%E -3.98%K -6.37%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.25%EV -4.91%E -2.27%K -4.24%G +0.000%4.32I 23.15%NM 21.63%EV -3.40%E -0.787%K -1.02%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-03 23:58
Unibet (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -7.55%E -2.75%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.18%EV -7.55%E -3.60%K -6.87%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.09%EV -6.08%E -1.45%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-03 09:50
Tipico (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -15.96%E -6.38%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.74%EV -7.55%E -3.60%K -6.87%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.37%EV -6.08%E -1.45%K -1.90%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-03 23:05
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -7.55%E -2.75%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.29%EV -9.76%E -4.76%K -9.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -10.56%E -2.64%K -3.52%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-03 09:50
Codere (IT)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.42%EV -9.23%E -3.42%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.02%EV -9.76%E -4.76%K -9.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.56%EV -10.56%E -2.64%K -3.52%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-03 09:50
Unibet (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.84%EV -10.91%E -4.12%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -9.76%E -4.76%K -9.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.42%EV -10.56%E -2.64%K -3.52%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-03 23:45
Betclic (FR)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.69%EV -11.59%E -4.41%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.87%EV -11.08%E -5.48%K -10.86%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.43%EV -11.67%E -2.96%K -3.96%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-03 09:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.83%EV -10.91%E -4.12%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.82%EV -11.96%E -5.98%K -11.96%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.35%EV -6.08%E -1.45%K -1.90%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-03 09:49
Winamax (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.38%EV -15.96%E -6.38%K -10.64%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 43.86%EV -13.72%E -7.00%K -14.29%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.76%EV -11.67%E -2.96%K -3.96%G +0.000%16.3%2026-10-03 09:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (8)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%5.0%2026-10-03 20:40
Bet Right🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%5.3%2026-10-03 20:10
Kalshi◎1.96I 51.02%NM 47.73%1.79I 55.87%NM 52.27%6.9%2026-10-03 23:55
Betr (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%7.1%2026-10-03 23:45
betPARX🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.66%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.34%7.6%2026-10-03 09:50
Bally Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.66%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.34%7.6%2026-10-03 09:50
BetRivers🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.92%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.08%8.2%2026-10-03 09:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.01%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.99%9.1%2026-10-03 20:10