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Texas Stars v Iowa Wild

Kickoff: 2026-04-09 00:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Texas Stars (Local)

Prediction 42.95%2.33fair odd
EV -4.22%
Edge -1.89%
Kelly -3.43%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.43%43.53%42.95%45.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.972.142.152.2350.76%46.83%46.51%44.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Iowa Wild (Visit)

Prediction 34.36%2.91fair odd
EV -5.52%
Edge -2.01%
Kelly -3.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.18%34.11%34.36%34.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.482.672.702.7540.32%37.44%37.04%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.69%4.41fair odd
EV -1.30%
Edge -0.298%
Kelly -0.387%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.33%22.36%22.69%24.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.863.704.3527.78%25.91%27.03%22.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Texas Stars (Local): 42.95%; Iowa Wild (Visit): 34.36%; Draw: 22.69%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.41. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.35, with an expected value of -1.30%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.43%EV -4.22%E -1.89%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.60%EV -5.52%E -2.01%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -16.04%E -4.34%K -5.94%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-08 18:49
Casumo🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.43%EV -4.22%E -1.89%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.60%EV -5.52%E -2.01%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -16.04%E -4.34%K -5.94%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-08 18:50
Grosvenor🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.43%EV -4.22%E -1.89%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.60%EV -5.52%E -2.01%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -16.04%E -4.34%K -5.94%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-08 18:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.43%EV -4.22%E -1.89%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.60%EV -5.52%E -2.01%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -16.04%E -4.34%K -5.94%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-08 18:49
PMU (FR)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.43%EV -4.22%E -1.89%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.60%EV -5.52%E -2.01%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -16.04%E -4.34%K -5.94%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-08 18:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.43%EV -4.22%E -1.89%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.60%EV -5.52%E -2.01%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -16.04%E -4.34%K -5.94%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-08 18:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.43%EV -4.22%E -1.89%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.60%EV -5.52%E -2.01%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -16.04%E -4.34%K -5.94%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-08 18:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.75%EV -6.36%E -2.92%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.52%EV -7.24%E -2.68%K -4.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -6.97%E -1.70%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-08 18:49
LeoVegas🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.52%EV -7.65%E -3.56%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.69%EV -8.95%E -3.38%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.80%EV -18.31%E -5.09%K -7.04%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-08 18:50
1xBet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.66%EV -8.08%E -3.78%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.86%EV -7.92%E -2.96%K -4.72%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.48%EV -1.30%E -0.298%K -0.387%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-08 23:59
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -9.80%E -4.67%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.19%EV -8.95%E -3.38%K -5.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -9.24%E -2.31%K -3.08%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-08 18:50
Codere (IT)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.75%EV -9.80%E -4.67%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.53%EV -10.67%E -4.10%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.73%EV -10.37%E -2.63%K -3.52%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-08 18:50
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.67%EV -11.95%E -5.83%K -11.38%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.31%EV -12.39%E -4.86%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.02%EV -13.77%E -3.62%K -4.92%G +0.000%14.3%2026-04-08 23:49
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.59%EV -14.10%E -7.05%K -14.10%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.65%EV -8.95%E -3.38%K -5.43%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.75%EV -6.97%E -1.70%K -2.25%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-09 00:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.24%EV -14.10%E -7.05%K -14.10%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.59%EV -14.11%E -5.64%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.17%EV -11.51%E -2.95%K -3.97%G +0.000%15.6%2026-04-08 18:49
Betclic (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.61%EV -14.10%E -7.05%K -14.10%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 34.36%EV -14.79%E -5.97%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.03%EV -16.04%E -4.34%K -5.94%G +0.000%17.3%2026-04-08 23:49
Tipico (DE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.48%EV -15.38%E -7.81%K -15.86%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.18%EV -7.24%E -2.68%K -4.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%EV -4.70%E -1.12%K -1.47%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-08 18:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.82I 54.95%NM 53.92%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.08%1.9%2026-04-09 00:00
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%5.1%2026-04-08 18:50
Bet Right🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.95%2.11I 47.39%NM 45.05%5.2%2026-04-08 22:34
William Hill🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%7.6%2026-04-08 14:50
betPARX🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%7.6%2026-04-08 18:50
Bally Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%7.6%2026-04-08 18:50
BetRivers🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.55%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.45%7.8%2026-04-08 18:49
Betr (AU)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.85%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.15%7.9%2026-04-08 14:20
Smarkets◎1.70I 58.82%NM 54.30%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.70%8.3%2026-04-08 18:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.74%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.26%9.4%2026-04-08 22:30