The School of Odds
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Texas Stars v Bakersfield Condors

Kickoff: 2026-03-15 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Texas Stars (Local)

Prediction 37.68%2.65fair odd
EV -0.906%
Edge -0.344%
Kelly -0.556%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.17%37.45%37.68%38.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.482.462.6344.44%40.25%40.57%38.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bakersfield Condors (Visit)

Prediction 40.09%2.49fair odd
EV -4.18%
Edge -1.75%
Kelly -3.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.39

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.42%40.38%40.09%41.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.242.252.3946.51%44.56%44.44%41.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.23%4.50fair odd
EV -5.52%
Edge -1.30%
Kelly -1.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.49%22.17%22.23%23.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.803.993.954.2526.32%25.07%25.32%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Texas Stars (Local): 37.68%; Bakersfield Condors (Visit): 40.09%; Draw: 22.23%. For Texas Stars (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.65. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.63, with an expected value of -0.906%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.17%EV -0.906%E -0.344%K -0.556%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.11%EV -9.79%E -4.35%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.72%EV -13.30%E -3.41%K -4.59%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-14 07:50
Grosvenor🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.17%EV -0.906%E -0.344%K -0.556%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.11%EV -9.79%E -4.35%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.72%EV -13.30%E -3.41%K -4.59%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-14 07:50
Casumo🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.17%EV -0.906%E -0.344%K -0.556%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.11%EV -9.79%E -4.35%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.72%EV -13.30%E -3.41%K -4.59%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-14 22:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.17%EV -0.906%E -0.344%K -0.556%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.11%EV -9.79%E -4.35%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.72%EV -13.30%E -3.41%K -4.59%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-14 21:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.17%EV -0.906%E -0.344%K -0.556%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.11%EV -9.79%E -4.35%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.72%EV -13.30%E -3.41%K -4.59%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-14 22:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.17%EV -0.906%E -0.344%K -0.556%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.11%EV -9.79%E -4.35%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.72%EV -13.30%E -3.41%K -4.59%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-14 22:05
LeoVegas🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.20%EV -3.92%E -1.54%K -2.53%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.18%EV -12.60%E -5.78%K -10.68%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.62%EV -15.53%E -4.09%K -5.54%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-14 22:05
GTbets🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.07%EV -6.56%E -2.64%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 39.50%EV -4.18%E -1.75%K -3.01%G +0.000%4.21I 23.75%NM 22.43%EV -6.41%E -1.52%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-14 09:24
Unibet (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -7.69%E -3.14%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.01%EV -6.59%E -2.83%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.94%EV -5.52%E -1.30%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-14 13:05
Tipico (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.54%EV -7.69%E -3.14%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.63%EV -13.80%E -6.42%K -12.00%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.83%EV -8.86%E -2.16%K -2.86%G +0.000%11.7%2026-03-14 17:14
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.50%EV -9.57%E -3.99%K -6.84%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -9.79%E -4.35%K -7.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -11.08%E -2.77%K -3.69%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-14 13:05
1xBet🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 38.10%EV -9.95%E -4.16%K -7.16%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 39.42%EV -7.39%E -3.20%K -5.64%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.48%EV -9.97%E -2.46%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-14 18:10
Codere (IT)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.70%EV -10.33%E -4.34%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.87%EV -9.79%E -4.35%K -7.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.43%EV -11.08%E -2.77%K -3.69%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-14 13:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.40%EV -11.46%E -4.87%K -8.49%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.11%EV -9.79%E -4.35%K -7.84%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.49%EV -6.63%E -1.58%K -2.07%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-14 13:04
Betclic (FR)🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 37.69%EV -14.47%E -6.37%K -11.39%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 39.79%EV -13.80%E -6.42%K -12.00%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.52%EV -15.53%E -4.09%K -5.54%G +0.000%16.9%2026-03-14 23:34
Winamax (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.33%EV -15.22%E -6.77%K -12.18%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.11%EV -13.80%E -6.42%K -12.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.56%EV -11.08%E -2.77%K -3.69%G +0.000%16.0%2026-03-14 13:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.0%2026-03-14 17:40
theScore Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%4.8%2026-03-14 10:35
Bet Right🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%5.3%2026-03-14 23:35
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%7.9%2026-03-14 10:34
Smarkets◎1.89I 52.91%NM 48.92%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.08%8.2%2026-03-14 13:05
BetRivers🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%8.4%2026-03-14 07:50
Bally Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%8.4%2026-03-14 07:50
betPARX🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%8.4%2026-03-14 07:50
Betr (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%9.3%2026-03-14 18:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%9.3%2026-03-14 23:55