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Syracuse Crunch v Toronto Marlies

Kickoff: 2026-03-11 23:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Syracuse Crunch (Local)

Prediction 50.21%1.99fair odd
EV -3.59%
Edge -1.87%
Kelly -3.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.29%50.69%50.21%52.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.841.851.9258.82%54.21%54.05%52.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Toronto Marlies (Visit)

Prediction 28.42%3.52fair odd
EV -4.81%
Edge -1.44%
Kelly -2.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.09%28.13%28.42%29.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.193.253.3533.90%31.36%30.77%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.37%4.68fair odd
EV -5.96%
Edge -1.35%
Kelly -1.75%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.32%21.18%21.37%23.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.114.004.4025.64%24.32%25.00%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Syracuse Crunch (Local): 50.21%; Toronto Marlies (Visit): 28.42%; Draw: 21.37%. For Syracuse Crunch (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.99. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.92, with an expected value of -3.59%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.29%EV -3.59%E -1.87%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.53%EV -7.65%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.18%EV -14.51%E -3.63%K -4.84%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-11 21:50
Casumo🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.29%EV -3.59%E -1.87%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.53%EV -7.65%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.18%EV -14.51%E -3.63%K -4.84%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-11 21:50
Grosvenor🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.29%EV -3.59%E -1.87%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.53%EV -7.65%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.18%EV -14.51%E -3.63%K -4.84%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-11 21:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.29%EV -3.59%E -1.87%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.53%EV -7.65%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.18%EV -14.51%E -3.63%K -4.84%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-11 21:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.29%EV -3.59%E -1.87%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.53%EV -7.65%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.18%EV -14.51%E -3.63%K -4.84%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-11 21:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.29%EV -3.59%E -1.87%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.53%EV -7.65%E -2.35%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.18%EV -14.51%E -3.63%K -4.84%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-11 21:50
GTbets🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.27%EV -5.60%E -2.98%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.21%EV -4.81%E -1.44%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.39I 22.78%NM 21.53%EV -6.17%E -1.41%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-11 22:54
1xBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.83%EV -5.60%E -2.98%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 28.78%EV -9.35%E -2.93%K -4.27%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.39%EV -12.37%E -3.02%K -3.99%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-11 22:54
Unibet (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.48%EV -7.11%E -3.84%K -8.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.30%EV -6.23%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.22%EV -5.96%E -1.35%K -1.75%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-11 21:10
LeoVegas🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.50%EV -7.11%E -3.84%K -8.36%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.49%EV -10.49%E -3.33%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.01%EV -16.64%E -4.27%K -5.74%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-11 21:50
Betway🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.81%EV -8.11%E -4.43%K -9.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.49%EV -9.07%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.70%EV -10.23%E -2.44%K -3.20%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-11 21:10
Codere (IT)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 49.86%EV -9.12%E -5.04%K -11.26%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.65%EV -10.49%E -3.33%K -4.88%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.49%EV -10.23%E -2.44%K -3.20%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-11 21:15
Winamax (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.02%EV -9.62%E -5.34%K -12.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.04%EV -11.91%E -3.84%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.94%EV -8.09%E -1.88%K -2.45%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-11 21:10
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 49.58%EV -11.63%E -6.61%K -15.30%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.61%EV -13.33%E -4.37%K -6.50%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.81%EV -14.51%E -3.63%K -4.84%G +0.000%14.6%2026-03-11 22:49
Winamax (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 49.65%EV -12.63%E -7.26%K -17.07%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.28%EV -16.17%E -5.48%K -8.29%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.07%EV -12.37%E -3.02%K -3.99%G +0.000%15.8%2026-03-11 21:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 49.21%EV -12.63%E -7.26%K -17.07%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 28.83%EV -15.61%E -5.25%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.96%EV -16.64%E -4.27%K -5.74%G +0.000%16.8%2026-03-11 22:38
Tipico (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.59%EV -14.64%E -8.61%K -20.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.09%EV -6.23%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.32%EV -5.96%E -1.35%K -1.75%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-11 21:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%4.9%2026-03-09 23:29
Kalshi◎2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%4.9%2026-03-11 22:54
Bet Right🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%5.3%2026-03-11 22:54
William Hill🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%7.4%2026-03-09 23:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%7.6%2026-03-11 21:10
Smarkets◎1.52I 65.79%NM 60.82%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.18%8.2%2026-03-11 21:10
BetRivers🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.36%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.64%8.3%2026-03-11 11:10
betPARX🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.36%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.64%8.3%2026-03-11 11:10
Bally Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.36%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.64%8.3%2026-03-11 11:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.04%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%9.2%2026-03-11 21:10