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Syracuse Crunch v Toronto Marlies

Kickoff: 2026-04-12 20:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Syracuse Crunch (Local)

Prediction 46.94%2.13fair odd
EV -1.42%
Edge -0.678%
Kelly -1.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.48%46.77%46.94%49.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.941.972.1055.56%51.59%50.76%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Toronto Marlies (Visit)

Prediction 30.46%3.28fair odd
EV -4.06%
Edge -1.29%
Kelly -1.89%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.90%30.08%30.46%31.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.043.083.1535.71%32.85%32.52%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.60%4.42fair odd
EV +0.121%
Edge +0.027%
Kelly +0.035%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.08%23.15%22.60%26.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.983.954.4328.57%25.14%25.32%22.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Syracuse Crunch (Local): 46.94%; Toronto Marlies (Visit): 30.46%; Draw: 22.60%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.42. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.43, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.121%.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.94%EV -10.34%E -5.41%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.96%EV -4.97%E -1.59%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.43I 22.57%NM 21.10%EV +0.121%E +0.027%K +0.035%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 19:59
Winamax (DE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.20%EV -11.75%E -6.25%K -13.35%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.72%EV -10.15%E -3.44%K -5.20%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.08%EV -2.82%E -0.655%K -0.854%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-12 20:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -15.51%E -8.61%K -19.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -5.58%E -1.80%K -2.66%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%EV -5.08%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-12 17:25
GTbets🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.22%EV -4.24%E -2.08%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.12%EV -7.71%E -2.55%K -3.80%G +0.000%4.16I 24.04%NM 22.66%EV -5.98%E -1.44%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-12 04:29
Unibet (UK)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.90%EV -7.06%E -3.56%K -7.20%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.45%EV -7.10%E -2.33%K -3.47%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.65%EV -7.34%E -1.79%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-12 17:18
Codere (IT)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.93%EV -9.87%E -5.14%K -10.73%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.54%EV -10.15%E -3.44%K -5.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.53%EV -9.60%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-12 17:20
Unibet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.95%EV -7.06%E -3.56%K -7.20%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.51%EV -4.06%E -1.29%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.54%EV -10.73%E -2.72%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-12 04:30
Grosvenor🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.08%EV -7.53%E -3.82%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.44%EV -4.06%E -1.29%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.48%EV -10.73%E -2.72%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-12 04:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.08%EV -7.53%E -3.82%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.44%EV -4.06%E -1.29%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.48%EV -10.73%E -2.72%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-12 04:30
PMU (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.08%EV -7.53%E -3.82%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.44%EV -4.06%E -1.29%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.48%EV -10.73%E -2.72%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-12 04:30
Casumo🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.08%EV -7.53%E -3.82%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.44%EV -4.06%E -1.29%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.48%EV -10.73%E -2.72%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-12 04:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.08%EV -7.53%E -3.82%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.44%EV -4.06%E -1.29%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.48%EV -10.73%E -2.72%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-12 04:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.08%EV -7.53%E -3.82%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.44%EV -4.06%E -1.29%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.48%EV -10.73%E -2.72%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-12 04:30
Winamax (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 47.36%EV -14.57%E -8.00%K -17.76%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.25%EV -13.19%E -4.63%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.39%EV -12.99%E -3.37%K -4.56%G +0.000%16.0%2026-04-12 20:00
LeoVegas🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.84%EV -9.87%E -5.14%K -10.73%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.49%EV -7.10%E -2.33%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.67%EV -14.12%E -3.72%K -5.04%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-12 04:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 46.55%EV -12.22%E -6.53%K -14.05%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.54%EV -13.19%E -4.63%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.91%EV -14.12%E -3.72%K -5.04%G +0.000%14.9%2026-04-12 19:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 46.56%EV -13.16%E -7.11%K -15.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.77%EV -14.72%E -5.26%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.67%EV -14.12%E -3.72%K -5.04%G +0.000%16.1%2026-04-12 20:04
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -1.42%E -0.678%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -8.63%E -2.88%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -20.90%E -5.97%K -8.36%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-12 20:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%5.1%2026-04-12 20:05
Bet Right🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%5.2%2026-04-12 17:10
William Hill🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%6.9%2026-04-11 04:39
betPARX🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%8.1%2026-04-10 20:05
Bally Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%8.1%2026-04-10 20:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%8.1%2026-04-11 20:04
Smarkets◎1.58I 63.29%NM 58.42%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.58%8.3%2026-04-12 17:20
BetRivers🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.06%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%8.5%2026-04-10 20:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%9.1%2026-04-12 19:49
Kalshi◎1.28I 78.13%NM 57.33%1.72I 58.14%NM 42.67%36.3%2026-04-12 20:05