The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Springfield Thunderbirds v W-B/Scranton Penguins

Kickoff: 2026-05-19 23:25 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Springfield Thunderbirds (Local)

Prediction 25.02%4.00fair odd
EV +2.83%
Edge +0.689%
Kelly +0.911%
Growth +0.026%

assuming max odds 4.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.73%25.02%24.98%25.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.723.804.1129.85%26.86%26.32%24.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

W-B/Scranton Penguins (Visit)

Prediction 53.31%1.88fair odd
EV -7.78%
Edge -4.50%
Kelly -10.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.82%53.31%53.32%57.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.631.701.711.7361.35%58.98%58.31%57.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.67%4.61fair odd
EV +1.43%
Edge +0.305%
Kelly +0.388%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 4.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.96%21.67%21.71%21.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.234.204.6825.00%23.64%23.81%21.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Springfield Thunderbirds (Local): 25.02%; W-B/Scranton Penguins (Visit): 53.31%; Draw: 21.67%. For Springfield Thunderbirds (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.00. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.11, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.83%.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯4.11I 24.33%NM 22.73%EV +2.83%E +0.689%K +0.911%G +0.026%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.31%EV -13.11%E -8.04%K -20.81%G +0.000%4.68I 21.37%NM 19.96%EV +1.43%E +0.305%K +0.388%G +0.006%7.0%2026-05-19 22:59
GTbets🎯3.83I 26.11%NM 24.32%EV -4.17%E -1.09%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -9.38%E -5.52%K -13.40%G +0.000%4.46I 22.42%NM 20.89%EV -3.34%E -0.749%K -0.965%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-19 12:40
Unibet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.31%EV -4.92%E -1.30%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.70%EV -8.31%E -4.83%K -11.54%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -8.97%E -2.14%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-19 12:39
Grosvenor🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.31%EV -4.92%E -1.30%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.70%EV -8.31%E -4.83%K -11.54%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -8.97%E -2.14%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-19 12:30
Unibet (NL)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.31%EV -4.92%E -1.30%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.70%EV -8.31%E -4.83%K -11.54%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -8.97%E -2.14%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-19 12:40
Casumo🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.31%EV -4.92%E -1.30%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.70%EV -8.31%E -4.83%K -11.54%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -8.97%E -2.14%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-19 12:39
PMU (FR)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.31%EV -4.92%E -1.30%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.70%EV -8.31%E -4.83%K -11.54%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -8.97%E -2.14%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-19 12:39
ATG (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.31%EV -4.92%E -1.30%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.70%EV -8.31%E -4.83%K -11.54%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -8.97%E -2.14%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-19 12:40
Svenska Spel🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.31%EV -4.92%E -1.30%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.70%EV -8.31%E -4.83%K -11.54%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -8.97%E -2.14%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-19 12:39
Unibet (UK)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.82%EV -6.18%E -1.65%K -2.25%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.79%EV -7.78%E -4.50%K -10.66%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.39%EV -5.72%E -1.32%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-19 14:30
LeoVegas🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -7.43%E -2.01%K -2.75%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 53.95%EV -11.51%E -6.93%K -17.44%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.84%EV -11.14%E -2.72%K -3.59%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-19 12:40
Betway🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 24.98%EV -8.68%E -2.38%K -3.27%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.32%EV -8.84%E -5.17%K -12.46%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -8.97%E -2.14%K -2.80%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-19 14:30
Winamax (DE)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.39%EV -11.18%E -3.15%K -4.38%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 53.65%EV -10.44%E -6.22%K -15.36%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.96%EV -6.81%E -1.58%K -2.06%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-19 14:30
Unibet (FR)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.13%EV -11.18%E -3.15%K -4.38%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 53.11%EV -10.44%E -6.22%K -15.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.76%EV -11.14%E -2.72%K -3.59%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-19 22:59
Betclic (FR)🎯3.47I 28.82%NM 25.27%EV -13.18%E -3.80%K -5.34%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 52.82%EV -11.51%E -6.93%K -17.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.92%EV -13.31%E -3.33%K -4.44%G +0.000%14.1%2026-05-19 22:37
Winamax (FR)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 25.91%EV -16.18%E -4.83%K -6.89%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 52.92%EV -12.58%E -7.67%K -19.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.17%EV -11.14%E -2.72%K -3.59%G +0.000%15.2%2026-05-19 14:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.86I 34.97%NM 35.00%1.54I 64.94%NM 65.00%-0.1%2026-05-19 22:59
Bet Right🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%5.0%2026-05-19 20:20
theScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%6.0%2026-05-19 14:30
William Hill🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%7.6%2026-05-19 13:10
BetRivers🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%7.8%2026-05-19 12:40
betPARX🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%7.8%2026-05-19 12:30
Bally Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%7.8%2026-05-19 12:40
Betr (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%7.8%2026-05-19 12:10
Smarkets◎2.60I 38.46%NM 35.48%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.52%8.4%2026-05-19 14:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.57%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.43%9.2%2026-05-19 20:20