The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Springfield Thunderbirds v W-B/Scranton Penguins

Kickoff: 2026-05-21 23:25 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Springfield Thunderbirds (Local)

Prediction 26.42%3.79fair odd
EV -3.57%
Edge -0.979%
Kelly -1.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.29%26.42%26.40%27.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.523.553.6531.25%28.39%28.17%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

W-B/Scranton Penguins (Visit)

Prediction 51.72%1.93fair odd
EV -6.90%
Edge -3.84%
Kelly -8.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.25%51.72%51.78%52.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.681.751.751.8059.52%57.27%57.14%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.86%4.57fair odd
EV -4.68%
Edge -1.07%
Kelly -1.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.03%21.86%21.82%22.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.954.214.254.3625.32%23.76%23.53%22.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Springfield Thunderbirds (Local): 26.42%; W-B/Scranton Penguins (Visit): 51.72%; Draw: 21.86%. For Springfield Thunderbirds (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.79. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.65, with an expected value of -3.57%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.35%EV -3.57%E -0.979%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.88%EV -9.49%E -5.42%K -12.65%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.77%EV -7.08%E -1.67%K -2.18%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-20 05:29
PMU (FR)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.35%EV -3.57%E -0.979%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.88%EV -9.49%E -5.42%K -12.65%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.77%EV -7.08%E -1.67%K -2.18%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-20 05:29
Casumo🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.35%EV -3.57%E -0.979%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.88%EV -9.49%E -5.42%K -12.65%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.77%EV -7.08%E -1.67%K -2.18%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-20 05:29
Grosvenor🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.35%EV -3.57%E -0.979%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.88%EV -9.49%E -5.42%K -12.65%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.77%EV -7.08%E -1.67%K -2.18%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-20 05:29
Unibet (NL)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.35%EV -3.57%E -0.979%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.88%EV -9.49%E -5.42%K -12.65%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.77%EV -7.08%E -1.67%K -2.18%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-20 05:29
ATG (SE)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.35%EV -3.57%E -0.979%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.88%EV -9.49%E -5.42%K -12.65%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.77%EV -7.08%E -1.67%K -2.18%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-20 05:29
Svenska Spel🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.35%EV -3.57%E -0.979%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.88%EV -9.49%E -5.42%K -12.65%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.77%EV -7.08%E -1.67%K -2.18%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-20 05:29
GTbets🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.23%EV -6.22%E -1.75%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.31%EV -7.94%E -4.46%K -10.18%G +0.000%4.34I 23.04%NM 21.46%EV -5.12%E -1.18%K -1.53%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-21 23:00
LeoVegas🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.29%EV -6.22%E -1.75%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.81%EV -12.08%E -7.10%K -17.25%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.90%EV -10.36%E -2.53%K -3.34%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-20 05:29
1xBet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -7.54%E -2.15%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.89%EV -6.90%E -3.84%K -8.63%G +0.000%4.36I 22.94%NM 21.42%EV -4.68%E -1.07%K -1.39%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-21 23:00
Unibet (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.45%EV -7.54%E -2.15%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.01%EV -7.94%E -4.46%K -10.18%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.53%EV -5.99%E -1.39%K -1.82%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-21 21:20
Betway🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -7.54%E -2.15%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.89%EV -8.46%E -4.78%K -10.98%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.87%EV -8.18%E -1.95%K -2.56%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-21 21:20
Winamax (DE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.00%EV -11.50%E -3.43%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 51.97%EV -10.01%E -5.75%K -13.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.03%EV -5.99%E -1.39%K -1.82%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-21 21:20
Unibet (FR)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.57%EV -11.50%E -3.43%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.45%EV -10.53%E -6.08%K -14.42%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.98%EV -11.46%E -2.83%K -3.76%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-21 21:20
Betclic (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.56%EV -12.82%E -3.89%K -5.57%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 51.25%EV -11.56%E -6.76%K -16.28%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.19%EV -13.64%E -3.45%K -4.62%G +0.000%14.1%2026-05-21 22:40
Winamax (FR)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 26.99%EV -15.46%E -4.83%K -7.03%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 51.41%EV -13.11%E -7.80%K -19.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.59%EV -12.55%E -3.14%K -4.18%G +0.000%15.8%2026-05-21 21:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70%1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30%0.8%2026-05-21 23:00
Bet Right🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%5.1%2026-05-21 13:00
theScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%6.0%2026-05-20 09:29
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%6.7%2026-05-20 07:39
Betr (AU)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%7.6%2026-05-20 23:09
Smarkets◎2.50I 40.00%NM 37.03%1.47I 68.03%NM 62.97%8.0%2026-05-21 21:20
BetRivers🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%8.2%2026-05-20 05:29
Bally Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%8.2%2026-05-20 05:26
betPARX🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%8.2%2026-05-20 05:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.68%8.9%2026-05-20 23:09