The School of Odds
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Springfield Thunderbirds v Utica Comets

Kickoff: 2026-03-14 22:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Springfield Thunderbirds (Local)

Prediction 32.21%3.10fair odd
EV -5.95%
Edge -2.04%
Kelly -3.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.92%31.99%32.21%34.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.772.752.9238.46%36.13%36.36%34.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Utica Comets (Visit)

Prediction 45.44%2.20fair odd
EV -0.032%
Edge -0.014%
Kelly -0.026%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.16%45.74%45.44%47.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.902.042.012.2052.63%49.10%49.63%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.35%4.47fair odd
EV -3.44%
Edge -0.796%
Kelly -1.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.51%22.27%22.35%23.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.044.004.3226.67%24.78%25.00%23.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Springfield Thunderbirds (Local): 32.21%; Utica Comets (Visit): 45.44%; Draw: 22.35%. For Utica Comets (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.201. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.200, with an expected value of -0.032%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 32.33%EV -5.95%E -2.04%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.82%EV -6.39%E -3.10%K -6.03%G +0.000%4.32I 23.15%NM 21.85%EV -3.44%E -0.796%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-14 11:45
Unibet (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.20%EV -6.60%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.56%EV -6.85%E -3.34%K -6.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.24%EV -6.12%E -1.46%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-14 08:35
Tipico (DE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -6.60%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 47.20%EV -13.66%E -7.19%K -15.18%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.87%EV -8.36%E -2.04%K -2.70%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-14 17:14
1xBet🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 32.10%EV -7.89%E -2.76%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 45.23%EV -7.76%E -3.82%K -7.53%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.67%EV -9.47%E -2.34%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-14 16:50
Codere (IT)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.19%EV -9.82%E -3.51%K -5.45%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 45.29%EV -9.57%E -4.81%K -9.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.53%EV -10.59%E -2.65%K -3.53%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-14 08:35
Winamax (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -11.43%E -4.16%K -6.53%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.63%EV -10.03%E -5.06%K -10.23%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.51%EV -6.12%E -1.46%K -1.91%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-14 08:34
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.65%EV -11.43%E -4.16%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.90%EV -9.12%E -4.56%K -9.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.45%EV -10.59%E -2.65%K -3.53%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-14 08:35
Unibet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.35%EV -13.04%E -4.83%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.16%EV -0.032%E -0.014%K -0.026%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.48%EV -11.71%E -2.96%K -3.97%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-14 05:09
Unibet (NL)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.35%EV -13.04%E -4.83%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.16%EV -0.032%E -0.014%K -0.026%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.48%EV -11.71%E -2.96%K -3.97%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-14 21:50
Grosvenor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.35%EV -13.04%E -4.83%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.16%EV -0.032%E -0.014%K -0.026%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.48%EV -11.71%E -2.96%K -3.97%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-14 05:09
Betclic (FR)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 32.49%EV -15.29%E -5.81%K -9.38%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 44.73%EV -13.21%E -6.92%K -14.52%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.78%EV -16.18%E -4.31%K -5.88%G +0.000%17.0%2026-03-14 21:44
Winamax (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.20%EV -16.26%E -6.25%K -10.16%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 44.95%EV -12.75%E -6.64%K -13.86%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.85%EV -11.71%E -2.96%K -3.97%G +0.000%15.9%2026-03-14 08:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.69I 59.17%NM 56.22%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.78%5.3%2026-03-14 21:55
theScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%5.3%2026-03-14 05:25
Bet Right🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%5.3%2026-03-14 18:35
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%7.5%2026-03-14 05:25
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.15%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.85%7.9%2026-03-14 05:40
Smarkets◎2.12I 47.17%NM 43.47%1.63I 61.35%NM 56.53%8.5%2026-03-14 10:10
BetRivers🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.76%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.24%8.6%2026-03-14 05:10
Bally Bet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.76%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.24%8.6%2026-03-14 05:09
betPARX🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.76%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.24%8.6%2026-03-14 05:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%9.4%2026-03-14 21:55