The School of Odds
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Springfield Thunderbirds v Providence Bruins

Kickoff: 2026-03-11 22:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Springfield Thunderbirds (Local)

Prediction 25.88%3.86fair odd
EV -2.69%
Edge -0.715%
Kelly -0.973%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.24%25.49%25.88%26.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.613.673.7630.77%27.68%27.21%26.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Providence Bruins (Visit)

Prediction 52.50%1.90fair odd
EV -6.54%
Edge -3.68%
Kelly -8.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.49%53.14%52.50%55.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.721.731.7861.73%58.29%57.80%56.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.61%4.63fair odd
EV -4.89%
Edge -1.11%
Kelly -1.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.39%21.38%21.61%22.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.204.204.4025.97%23.83%23.81%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Springfield Thunderbirds (Local): 25.88%; Providence Bruins (Visit): 52.50%; Draw: 21.61%. For Springfield Thunderbirds (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.86. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.76, with an expected value of -2.69%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯3.76I 26.60%NM 25.06%EV -2.69%E -0.715%K -0.973%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.53%EV -7.59%E -4.31%K -9.99%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.41%EV -4.89%E -1.11%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-11 22:00
Unibet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -2.95%E -0.785%K -1.07%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.38%EV -9.17%E -5.30%K -12.56%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -9.22%E -2.19%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-11 21:30
Casumo🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -2.95%E -0.785%K -1.07%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.38%EV -9.17%E -5.30%K -12.56%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -9.22%E -2.19%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-11 21:31
Unibet (NL)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -2.95%E -0.785%K -1.07%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.38%EV -9.17%E -5.30%K -12.56%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -9.22%E -2.19%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-11 21:31
Grosvenor🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -2.95%E -0.785%K -1.07%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.38%EV -9.17%E -5.30%K -12.56%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -9.22%E -2.19%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-11 21:31
Svenska Spel🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -2.95%E -0.785%K -1.07%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.38%EV -9.17%E -5.30%K -12.56%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -9.22%E -2.19%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-11 21:31
ATG (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -2.95%E -0.785%K -1.07%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.38%EV -9.17%E -5.30%K -12.56%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -9.22%E -2.19%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-11 21:30
Tipico (DE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.24%EV -4.24%E -1.15%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 55.37%EV -14.94%E -9.22%K -24.10%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.39%EV -4.89%E -1.11%K -1.44%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-10 14:25
LeoVegas🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 24.61%EV -5.53%E -1.52%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 53.48%EV -11.79%E -7.02%K -17.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.91%EV -11.38%E -2.78%K -3.67%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-11 21:31
1xBet🎯3.64I 27.47%NM 25.25%EV -5.79%E -1.59%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.13%EV -9.17%E -5.30%K -12.56%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.63%EV -8.14%E -1.91%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-11 21:45
Unibet (UK)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -6.83%E -1.90%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.53%EV -6.54%E -3.68%K -8.39%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.50%EV -5.98%E -1.37%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-11 21:10
Betway🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.01%EV -9.42%E -2.69%K -3.77%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 52.32%EV -8.64%E -4.97%K -11.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.67%EV -9.22%E -2.19%K -2.88%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-11 21:10
Codere (IT)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.72%EV -9.42%E -2.69%K -3.77%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 52.33%EV -9.69%E -5.64%K -13.46%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.95%EV -11.38%E -2.78%K -3.67%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-11 21:15
Winamax (DE)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.26%EV -10.71%E -3.10%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 52.67%EV -9.69%E -5.64%K -13.46%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.07%EV -7.06%E -1.64%K -2.14%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-11 21:10
Winamax (FR)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 26.52%EV -15.89%E -4.89%K -7.06%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 51.93%EV -12.84%E -7.74%K -19.46%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.55%EV -13.54%E -3.39%K -4.51%G +0.000%16.0%2026-03-11 21:10
Betclic (FR)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 26.30%EV -15.89%E -4.89%K -7.06%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 51.49%EV -12.84%E -7.74%K -19.46%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.20%EV -16.78%E -4.36%K -5.89%G +0.000%17.0%2026-03-11 21:37
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Bet Right🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%5.1%2026-03-11 21:10
theScore Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%5.8%2026-03-11 21:10
William Hill🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%7.6%2026-03-09 22:19
Betr (AU)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%7.6%2026-03-10 22:19
BetRivers🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.22%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.78%8.0%2026-03-11 21:30
Bally Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.22%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.78%8.0%2026-03-11 21:31
betPARX🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.22%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.78%8.0%2026-03-11 21:30
Smarkets◎2.54I 39.37%NM 36.34%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.66%8.3%2026-03-11 21:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.68%8.9%2026-03-11 21:40
Kalshi◎1.33I 75.19%NM 64.72%2.44I 40.98%NM 35.28%16.2%2026-03-11 22:00