The School of Odds
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Springfield Thunderbirds v Providence Bruins

Kickoff: 2026-02-21 23:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Springfield Thunderbirds (Local)

Prediction 26.76%3.74fair odd
EV -5.00%
Edge -1.41%
Kelly -1.96%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.56%26.75%26.76%28.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.333.303.5532.26%30.03%30.30%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Providence Bruins (Visit)

Prediction 51.48%1.94fair odd
EV -5.78%
Edge -3.16%
Kelly -6.97%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.41%51.49%51.48%52.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.791.811.8358.82%55.98%55.25%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.75%4.60fair odd
EV -2.98%
Edge -0.668%
Kelly -0.861%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.94%21.76%21.75%22.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.184.204.4625.97%23.92%23.81%22.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Springfield Thunderbirds (Local): 26.76%; Providence Bruins (Visit): 51.48%; Draw: 21.75%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.60. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.46, with an expected value of -2.98%; they did not produce positive expected value.

11 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.30%EV -5.00%E -1.41%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.76%EV -8.87%E -5.01%K -11.52%G +0.000%4.46I 22.42%NM 20.94%EV -2.98%E -0.668%K -0.861%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-21 23:04
GTbets🎯3.51I 28.49%NM 26.89%EV -6.07%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.57%EV -5.78%E -3.16%K -6.97%G +0.000%4.38I 22.83%NM 21.55%EV -4.72%E -1.08%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-21 23:05
Unibet (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -6.33%E -1.81%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.74%EV -7.33%E -4.07%K -9.16%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.66%EV -6.46%E -1.50%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-21 23:04
Tipico (DE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -6.33%E -1.81%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.62%EV -12.48%E -7.34%K -17.82%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.82%EV -10.81%E -2.64%K -3.49%G +0.000%11.8%2026-02-21 23:05
Winamax (DE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.54%EV -9.01%E -2.65%K -3.75%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 52.47%EV -11.45%E -6.65%K -15.90%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.99%EV -6.46%E -1.50%K -1.96%G +0.000%10.8%2026-02-21 23:05
Codere (IT)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.88%EV -10.35%E -3.09%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 51.16%EV -9.39%E -5.33%K -12.35%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.96%EV -10.81%E -2.64%K -3.49%G +0.000%11.1%2026-02-21 23:05
Unibet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -11.69%E -3.54%K -5.08%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.24%EV -5.78%E -3.16%K -6.97%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -8.64%E -2.06%K -2.70%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-21 23:05
Grosvenor🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -11.69%E -3.54%K -5.08%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.24%EV -5.78%E -3.16%K -6.97%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -8.64%E -2.06%K -2.70%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-21 23:05
Unibet (NL)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -11.69%E -3.54%K -5.08%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.24%EV -5.78%E -3.16%K -6.97%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -8.64%E -2.06%K -2.70%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-21 23:05
Casumo🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -11.69%E -3.54%K -5.08%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.24%EV -5.78%E -3.16%K -6.97%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -8.64%E -2.06%K -2.70%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-21 23:05
Svenska Spel🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -11.69%E -3.54%K -5.08%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.24%EV -5.78%E -3.16%K -6.97%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -8.64%E -2.06%K -2.70%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-21 23:05
ATG (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -11.69%E -3.54%K -5.08%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.24%EV -5.78%E -3.16%K -6.97%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -8.64%E -2.06%K -2.70%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-21 23:05
Betway🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -13.02%E -4.01%K -5.79%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.44%EV -7.33%E -4.07%K -9.16%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -8.64%E -2.06%K -2.70%G +0.000%10.1%2026-02-21 23:04
LeoVegas🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.10%EV -14.36%E -4.49%K -6.53%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.41%EV -6.30%E -3.46%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -12.99%E -3.25%K -4.33%G +0.000%11.2%2026-02-21 23:05
Betclic (FR)🎯3.12I 32.05%NM 27.43%EV -16.50%E -5.29%K -7.78%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 50.34%EV -12.48%E -7.34%K -17.82%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.23%EV -16.25%E -4.22%K -5.70%G +0.000%16.8%2026-02-21 23:04
Winamax (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 27.79%EV -17.04%E -5.50%K -8.11%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 50.67%EV -12.48%E -7.34%K -17.82%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.54%EV -12.99%E -3.25%K -4.33%G +0.000%16.1%2026-02-21 23:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (11)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Bet Right🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%5.1%2026-02-21 23:04
theScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%5.4%2026-02-21 23:05
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%6.7%2026-02-21 23:04
Bovada🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%6.7%2026-02-21 23:03
Betr (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%6.7%2026-02-21 23:04
betPARX🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%7.5%2026-02-21 23:05
Bally Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%7.5%2026-02-21 23:05
Smarkets◎2.46I 40.65%NM 37.56%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.44%8.2%2026-02-21 23:05
BetRivers🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%8.3%2026-02-21 23:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%9.0%2026-02-21 23:04
Kalshi◎2.08I 48.08%NM 41.74%1.49I 67.11%NM 58.26%15.2%2026-02-21 23:05