The School of Odds
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Springfield Thunderbirds v Providence Bruins

Kickoff: 2026-05-07 23:25 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Springfield Thunderbirds (Local)

Prediction 27.79%3.60fair odd
EV -1.34%
Edge -0.378%
Kelly -0.526%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.44%27.79%28.07%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.403.403.5532.79%29.44%29.41%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Providence Bruins (Visit)

Prediction 50.22%1.99fair odd
EV -5.59%
Edge -2.98%
Kelly -6.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.30%50.22%50.06%52.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.681.781.771.8859.52%56.16%56.50%53.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.99%4.55fair odd
EV -3.89%
Edge -0.890%
Kelly -1.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.37

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.32%21.99%21.87%23.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.224.324.3726.67%23.69%23.12%22.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Springfield Thunderbirds (Local): 27.79%; Providence Bruins (Visit): 50.22%; Draw: 21.99%. For Springfield Thunderbirds (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.60. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.55, with an expected value of -1.34%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.17%EV -1.34%E -0.378%K -0.526%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.48%EV -11.12%E -6.28%K -14.44%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.35%EV -4.33%E -0.995%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-07 12:40
PMU (FR)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.17%EV -1.34%E -0.378%K -0.526%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.48%EV -11.12%E -6.28%K -14.44%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.35%EV -4.33%E -0.995%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-07 12:40
Unibet (NL)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.17%EV -1.34%E -0.378%K -0.526%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.48%EV -11.12%E -6.28%K -14.44%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.35%EV -4.33%E -0.995%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-07 12:40
Casumo🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.17%EV -1.34%E -0.378%K -0.526%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.48%EV -11.12%E -6.28%K -14.44%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.35%EV -4.33%E -0.995%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-07 12:40
Grosvenor🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.17%EV -1.34%E -0.378%K -0.526%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.48%EV -11.12%E -6.28%K -14.44%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.35%EV -4.33%E -0.995%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-07 12:40
Svenska Spel🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.17%EV -1.34%E -0.378%K -0.526%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.48%EV -11.12%E -6.28%K -14.44%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.35%EV -4.33%E -0.995%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-07 12:40
ATG (SE)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.17%EV -1.34%E -0.378%K -0.526%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.48%EV -11.12%E -6.28%K -14.44%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.35%EV -4.33%E -0.995%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-07 12:40
Betway🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -5.51%E -1.62%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -9.61%E -5.34%K -12.01%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -7.63%E -1.82%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-07 23:05
LeoVegas🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.33%EV -5.51%E -1.62%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 52.35%EV -14.13%E -8.26%K -19.90%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.32%EV -7.63%E -1.82%K -2.38%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-07 12:40
Winamax (FR)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 25.44%EV -5.51%E -1.62%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 51.49%EV -15.64%E -9.31%K -23.00%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.07%EV -17.53%E -4.67%K -6.37%G +0.000%15.6%2026-05-07 23:05
GTbets🎯3.36I 29.76%NM 28.02%EV -6.62%E -1.97%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.08%EV -5.59%E -2.98%K -6.36%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.90%EV -5.43%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-06 11:15
1xBet🎯3.33I 30.03%NM 28.07%EV -7.46%E -2.24%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.53%EV -7.10%E -3.84%K -8.35%G +0.000%4.37I 22.88%NM 21.39%EV -3.89%E -0.890%K -1.15%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-07 23:04
Unibet (UK)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.09%EV -8.29%E -2.51%K -3.60%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.10%EV -7.10%E -3.84%K -8.35%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.81%EV -6.53%E -1.54%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-06 23:09
Winamax (DE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.57%EV -12.46%E -3.95%K -5.79%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.00%EV -9.61%E -5.34%K -12.01%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.43%EV -7.63%E -1.82%K -2.38%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-06 12:19
Betclic (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.25%EV -13.85%E -4.47%K -6.59%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 49.47%EV -11.12%E -6.28%K -14.44%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 22.28%EV -13.57%E -3.45%K -4.63%G +0.000%14.2%2026-05-07 22:38
Unibet (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 28.45%EV -15.24%E -5.00%K -7.43%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 49.30%EV -11.62%E -6.60%K -15.29%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.25%EV -14.23%E -3.65%K -4.91%G +0.000%15.2%2026-05-07 22:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%4.9%2026-05-07 23:05
Bet Right🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%5.0%2026-05-07 12:40
theScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%5.1%2026-05-07 23:05
Betr (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%6.7%2026-05-06 23:10
William Hill🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%7.4%2026-05-06 13:20
betPARX🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%7.9%2026-05-07 12:40
Bally Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%7.9%2026-05-07 12:39
Smarkets◎2.38I 42.02%NM 38.82%1.51I 66.23%NM 61.18%8.2%2026-05-07 11:10
BetRivers🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.48%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.52%8.4%2026-05-07 12:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%1.48I 67.57%NM 61.86%9.2%2026-05-06 23:10