The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Springfield Thunderbirds v Lehigh Valley Phantoms

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 22:08 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Springfield Thunderbirds (Local)

Prediction 36.74%2.72fair odd
EV -4.48%
Edge -1.72%
Kelly -2.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.43%36.35%36.66%37.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.502.552.6043.48%40.01%39.22%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lehigh Valley Phantoms (Visit)

Prediction 41.00%2.44fair odd
EV -5.70%
Edge -2.48%
Kelly -4.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.31%40.95%41.17%42.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.182.172.3048.78%45.90%46.08%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.26%4.49fair odd
EV -2.06%
Edge -0.468%
Kelly -0.606%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.04%22.70%22.16%24.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.164.214.4027.78%24.05%23.75%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Springfield Thunderbirds (Local): 36.74%; Lehigh Valley Phantoms (Visit): 41.00%; Draw: 22.26%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.49. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.40, with an expected value of -2.06%; they did not produce positive expected value.

9 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.29%EV -4.48%E -1.72%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.70%E -2.48%K -4.38%G +0.000%4.16I 24.04%NM 22.68%EV -7.40%E -1.78%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-17 05:34
Tipico (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.43%EV -4.48%E -1.72%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.70%EV -9.80%E -4.45%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.87%EV -19.87%E -5.52%K -7.64%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-17 22:00
1xBet🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 36.50%EV -5.94%E -2.32%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 41.35%EV -7.34%E -3.25%K -5.82%G +0.000%4.22I 23.70%NM 22.14%EV -6.07%E -1.44%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 22:03
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.30%EV -6.31%E -2.48%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.66%EV -11.03%E -5.08%K -9.43%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.04%EV -2.06%E -0.468%K -0.606%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-17 21:50
Grosvenor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.30%EV -6.31%E -2.48%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.66%EV -11.03%E -5.08%K -9.43%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.04%EV -2.06%E -0.468%K -0.606%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-17 21:45
Casumo🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.30%EV -6.31%E -2.48%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.66%EV -11.03%E -5.08%K -9.43%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.04%EV -2.06%E -0.468%K -0.606%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-17 21:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.30%EV -6.31%E -2.48%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.66%EV -11.03%E -5.08%K -9.43%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.04%EV -2.06%E -0.468%K -0.606%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-17 21:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.30%EV -6.31%E -2.48%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.66%EV -11.03%E -5.08%K -9.43%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.04%EV -2.06%E -0.468%K -0.606%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-17 21:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.30%EV -6.31%E -2.48%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.66%EV -11.03%E -5.08%K -9.43%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.04%EV -2.06%E -0.468%K -0.606%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-17 21:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.05%EV -8.15%E -3.26%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.16%EV -7.75%E -3.44%K -6.20%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.79%EV -5.40%E -1.27%K -1.66%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-16 06:59
Codere (IT)🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 36.65%EV -9.62%E -3.91%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.36%EV -10.62%E -4.87%K -9.00%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.99%EV -8.74%E -2.13%K -2.82%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-17 05:35
Betway🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.02%EV -9.99%E -4.08%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.31%EV -7.75%E -3.44%K -6.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.67%EV -10.96%E -2.74%K -3.65%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-17 22:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.73%EV -9.99%E -4.08%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.85%EV -11.85%E -5.51%K -10.30%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.42%EV -6.51%E -1.55%K -2.03%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-17 05:35
Betclic (FR)🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 36.62%EV -11.09%E -4.58%K -7.81%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.22%EV -11.85%E -5.51%K -10.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.16%EV -10.96%E -2.74%K -3.65%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-17 05:35
Winamax (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 36.17%EV -13.66%E -5.81%K -10.12%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 41.46%EV -15.95%E -7.78%K -15.19%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.37%EV -15.41%E -4.06%K -5.51%G +0.000%17.6%2026-10-17 22:05
Unibet (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 36.67%EV -15.50%E -6.74%K -11.92%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 41.14%EV -15.95%E -7.78%K -15.19%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.19%EV -15.41%E -4.06%K -5.51%G +0.000%18.6%2026-10-17 21:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (9)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.07%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.93%2.1%2026-10-17 14:10
Bet Right🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%5.1%2026-10-17 05:40
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%5.6%2026-10-17 21:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.20%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.80%7.0%2026-10-17 21:35
betPARX🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.18%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.82%7.6%2026-10-17 05:35
Bally Bet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.18%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.82%7.6%2026-10-17 05:35
BetRivers🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.17%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.83%8.2%2026-10-17 05:34
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.45%9.0%2026-10-17 21:35
Smarkets◎1.71I 58.48%NM 47.22%1.53I 65.36%NM 52.78%23.8%2026-10-17 22:05