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Springfield Thunderbirds v Lehigh Valley Phantoms

Kickoff: 2026-04-15 23:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Springfield Thunderbirds (Local)

Prediction 38.67%2.59fair odd
EV -3.32%
Edge -1.33%
Kelly -2.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.50%38.15%38.67%42.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.402.432.5045.45%41.75%41.15%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lehigh Valley Phantoms (Visit)

Prediction 38.67%2.59fair odd
EV -2.56%
Edge -1.02%
Kelly -1.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.09%39.50%38.67%43.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.352.382.5248.78%42.54%42.02%39.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.66%4.41fair odd
EV +2.65%
Edge +0.585%
Kelly +0.751%
Growth +0.020%

assuming max odds 4.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.87%22.35%22.66%24.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.753.993.954.5326.67%25.05%25.32%22.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Springfield Thunderbirds (Local): 38.67%; Lehigh Valley Phantoms (Visit): 38.67%; Draw: 22.66%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.41. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.53, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.65%.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.18%EV -14.15%E -6.37%K -11.59%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.16%EV -2.56%E -1.02%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.53I 22.08%NM 20.67%EV +2.65%E +0.585%K +0.751%G +0.020%6.8%2026-04-15 23:04
Tipico (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.50%EV -5.25%E -2.14%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.62%EV -20.73%E -10.11%K -19.75%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.87%EV +1.97%E +0.438%K +0.563%G +0.011%11.8%2026-04-15 22:34
GTbets🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.76%EV -6.02%E -2.48%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.76%EV -6.04%E -2.49%K -4.22%G +0.000%4.19I 23.87%NM 22.48%EV -5.05%E -1.21%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-15 09:34
Codere (IT)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.82%EV -10.28%E -4.43%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 38.66%EV -9.91%E -4.25%K -7.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.52%EV -9.36%E -2.34%K -3.12%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-15 18:04
Unibet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.27%EV -3.32%E -1.33%K -2.21%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.15%EV -7.97%E -3.35%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.59%EV -10.49%E -2.66%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-14 13:09
Casumo🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.27%EV -3.32%E -1.33%K -2.21%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.15%EV -7.97%E -3.35%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.59%EV -10.49%E -2.66%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-14 13:09
Unibet (NL)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.27%EV -3.32%E -1.33%K -2.21%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.15%EV -7.97%E -3.35%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.59%EV -10.49%E -2.66%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-14 13:10
PMU (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.27%EV -3.32%E -1.33%K -2.21%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.15%EV -7.97%E -3.35%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.59%EV -10.49%E -2.66%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-14 13:09
Grosvenor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.27%EV -3.32%E -1.33%K -2.21%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.15%EV -7.97%E -3.35%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.59%EV -10.49%E -2.66%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-14 13:09
Svenska Spel🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.27%EV -3.32%E -1.33%K -2.21%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.15%EV -7.97%E -3.35%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.59%EV -10.49%E -2.66%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-14 13:15
ATG (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.27%EV -3.32%E -1.33%K -2.21%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.15%EV -7.97%E -3.35%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.59%EV -10.49%E -2.66%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-14 13:15
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.36%EV -11.05%E -4.80%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.72%EV -7.20%E -3.00%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.92%EV -10.49%E -2.66%K -3.56%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-15 23:04
LeoVegas🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.21%EV -6.02%E -2.48%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.31%EV -11.07%E -4.81%K -8.51%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.48%EV -12.76%E -3.31%K -4.48%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-14 13:09
Betclic (FR)🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 38.62%EV -12.21%E -5.38%K -9.62%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 38.62%EV -12.23%E -5.39%K -9.63%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.77%EV -12.76%E -3.31%K -4.48%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-15 22:38
Unibet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.69%EV -12.98%E -5.77%K -10.39%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.69%EV -13.00%E -5.78%K -10.40%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.61%EV -12.76%E -3.31%K -4.48%G +0.000%14.9%2026-04-15 22:54
Betway🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.67%EV -9.12%E -3.88%K -6.75%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.09%EV -5.27%E -2.15%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.23%EV -15.02%E -4.01%K -5.46%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-15 23:04
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.32%EV -14.92%E -6.78%K -12.43%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.61%EV -11.07%E -4.81%K -8.51%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.07%EV -15.02%E -4.01%K -5.46%G +0.000%15.6%2026-04-15 23:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%4.8%2026-04-15 23:05
Bet Right🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.74%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%5.3%2026-04-15 23:00
Kalshi◎1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%5.8%2026-04-15 23:04
betPARX🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.33%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.67%7.8%2026-04-14 00:40
Bally Bet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.33%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.67%7.8%2026-04-14 00:40
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%7.9%2026-04-15 13:15
BetRivers🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.46%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.54%8.1%2026-04-14 00:39
Smarkets◎1.84I 54.35%NM 50.14%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.86%8.4%2026-04-15 18:01
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%9.3%2026-04-15 18:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%9.3%2026-04-14 23:14