The School of Odds
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Springfield Thunderbirds v Iowa Wild

Kickoff: 2026-03-07 23:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Springfield Thunderbirds (Local)

Prediction 43.92%2.28fair odd
EV -4.25%
Edge -1.95%
Kelly -3.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.41%44.20%43.92%45.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.972.102.122.1850.76%47.52%47.17%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Iowa Wild (Visit)

Prediction 33.70%2.97fair odd
EV -6.31%
Edge -2.27%
Kelly -3.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.61%33.44%33.70%34.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.702.752.7840.00%36.99%36.36%35.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.38%4.47fair odd
EV -3.56%
Edge -0.826%
Kelly -1.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.86%22.36%22.38%23.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.753.983.924.3126.67%25.11%25.48%23.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Springfield Thunderbirds (Local): 43.92%; Iowa Wild (Visit): 33.70%; Draw: 22.38%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.47. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.31, with an expected value of -3.56%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.52%EV -4.25%E -1.95%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -7.32%E -2.66%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -12.73%E -3.26%K -4.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-05 23:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.52%EV -4.25%E -1.95%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -7.32%E -2.66%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -12.73%E -3.26%K -4.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-05 23:30
Casumo🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.52%EV -4.25%E -1.95%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -7.32%E -2.66%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -12.73%E -3.26%K -4.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-05 23:30
Grosvenor🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.52%EV -4.25%E -1.95%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -7.32%E -2.66%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -12.73%E -3.26%K -4.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-05 23:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.52%EV -4.25%E -1.95%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -7.32%E -2.66%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -12.73%E -3.26%K -4.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-05 23:45
ATG (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.52%EV -4.25%E -1.95%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -7.32%E -2.66%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -12.73%E -3.26%K -4.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-05 23:45
GTbets🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.12%EV -6.01%E -2.81%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.97%EV -6.31%E -2.27%K -3.55%G +0.000%4.31I 23.20%NM 21.91%EV -3.56%E -0.826%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-07 23:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.94%EV -6.88%E -3.25%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.88%EV -7.32%E -2.66%K -4.18%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -6.02%E -1.43%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-07 05:39
LeoVegas🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.41%EV -6.88%E -3.25%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.93%EV -10.69%E -4.03%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.66%EV -14.97%E -3.94%K -5.35%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-05 23:30
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.69%EV -7.76%E -3.70%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.37%EV -7.32%E -2.66%K -4.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.94%EV -10.49%E -2.62%K -3.50%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-07 05:39
1xBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.18%EV -8.64%E -4.15%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV -7.32%E -2.66%K -4.18%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%EV -8.26%E -2.01%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-07 06:29
Codere (IT)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 43.62%EV -9.52%E -4.62%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.91%EV -10.69%E -4.03%K -6.48%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.47%EV -10.49%E -2.62%K -3.50%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-07 05:59
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.98%EV -9.96%E -4.86%K -9.48%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.02%EV -10.69%E -4.03%K -6.48%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.99%EV -8.26%E -2.01%K -2.66%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-07 05:39
Winamax (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 43.61%EV -13.03%E -6.58%K -13.30%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.54%EV -15.75%E -6.30%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.86%EV -11.61%E -2.94%K -3.94%G +0.000%15.8%2026-03-07 05:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.52%EV -13.47%E -6.84%K -13.89%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.61%EV -7.32%E -2.66%K -4.18%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.87%EV -8.26%E -2.01%K -2.66%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-07 11:38
Betclic (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 43.40%EV -13.47%E -6.84%K -13.89%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 33.80%EV -14.74%E -5.82%K -9.63%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.80%EV -16.09%E -4.29%K -5.85%G +0.000%17.0%2026-03-07 22:37
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%5.0%2026-03-07 21:20
Bet Right🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%5.2%2026-03-07 22:54
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%7.5%2026-03-07 22:54
Betr (AU)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.85%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.15%7.9%2026-03-07 05:40
Smarkets◎1.68I 59.52%NM 55.08%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.92%8.1%2026-03-07 11:14
BetRivers🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.30%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.70%8.3%2026-03-05 23:30
Bally Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.30%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.70%8.3%2026-03-05 23:45
betPARX🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.30%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.70%8.3%2026-03-05 23:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%9.4%2026-03-07 18:34
Kalshi◎1.19I 84.03%NM 46.15%1.02I 98.04%NM 53.85%82.1%2026-03-07 22:15