The School of Odds
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Springfield Thunderbirds v Charlotte Checkers

Kickoff: 2026-02-28 23:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Springfield Thunderbirds (Local)

Prediction 28.43%3.52fair odd
EV -3.32%
Edge -0.978%
Kelly -1.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.03%28.36%28.43%29.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.143.103.4033.90%31.85%32.26%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Charlotte Checkers (Visit)

Prediction 49.95%2.00fair odd
EV -3.10%
Edge -1.60%
Kelly -3.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.94

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.64%50.14%49.95%51.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.741.851.871.9457.47%53.93%53.62%51.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.62%4.63fair odd
EV -4.88%
Edge -1.11%
Kelly -1.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.83%21.51%21.62%22.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.154.104.4025.97%24.11%24.39%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Springfield Thunderbirds (Local): 28.43%; Charlotte Checkers (Visit): 49.95%; Draw: 21.62%. For Charlotte Checkers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.00. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.94, with an expected value of -3.10%; they did not produce positive expected value.

11 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -3.32%E -0.978%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 51.34%EV -10.59%E -5.92%K -13.41%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.62%EV -8.13%E -1.91%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-28 16:20
GTbets🎯3.37I 29.67%NM 27.95%EV -4.18%E -1.24%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 50.64%EV -7.10%E -3.81%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.41%EV -4.88%E -1.11%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-28 23:00
Unibet (UK)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.38%EV -6.17%E -1.87%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.09%EV -6.60%E -3.53%K -7.58%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.53%EV -5.96%E -1.37%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-28 07:59
Betway🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.49%EV -9.01%E -2.82%K -4.10%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.81%EV -8.59%E -4.70%K -10.35%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.70%EV -9.21%E -2.19%K -2.88%G +0.000%9.7%2026-02-28 07:59
Tipico (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.99%EV -9.01%E -2.82%K -4.10%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.18%EV -12.59%E -7.19%K -16.79%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.83%EV -7.05%E -1.64%K -2.13%G +0.000%11.6%2026-02-28 22:49
Codere (IT)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.58%EV -10.43%E -3.31%K -4.85%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.46%EV -9.09%E -5.00%K -11.09%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.96%EV -11.37%E -2.77%K -3.67%G +0.000%11.1%2026-02-28 08:04
Unibet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.81%EV -11.85%E -3.82%K -5.65%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.64%EV -3.10%E -1.60%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.54%EV -11.37%E -2.77%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-26 23:14
Grosvenor🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -11.85%E -3.82%K -5.65%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.77%EV -3.60%E -1.86%K -3.87%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -11.37%E -2.77%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-26 23:14
Unibet (NL)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -11.85%E -3.82%K -5.65%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.77%EV -3.60%E -1.86%K -3.87%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -11.37%E -2.77%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-26 23:14
Casumo🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -11.85%E -3.82%K -5.65%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.77%EV -3.60%E -1.86%K -3.87%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -11.37%E -2.77%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-26 23:14
ATG (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -11.85%E -3.82%K -5.65%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.77%EV -3.60%E -1.86%K -3.87%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -11.37%E -2.77%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-26 23:14
Svenska Spel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -11.85%E -3.82%K -5.65%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.77%EV -3.60%E -1.86%K -3.87%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -11.37%E -2.77%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-26 23:14
Winamax (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.04%EV -11.85%E -3.82%K -5.65%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.02%EV -10.09%E -5.61%K -12.62%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.94%EV -7.05%E -1.64%K -2.13%G +0.000%11.1%2026-02-28 07:59
LeoVegas🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -14.70%E -4.90%K -7.35%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 47.69%EV -6.10%E -3.24%K -6.93%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.42%EV -13.53%E -3.38%K -4.51%G +0.000%11.5%2026-02-26 23:14
Betclic (FR)🎯2.97I 33.67%NM 28.75%EV -15.55%E -5.24%K -7.89%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 49.07%EV -13.09%E -7.52%K -17.69%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.18%EV -16.77%E -4.36%K -5.89%G +0.000%17.1%2026-02-28 22:39
Winamax (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 29.13%EV -16.12%E -5.46%K -8.27%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 49.39%EV -13.09%E -7.52%K -17.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.48%EV -13.53%E -3.38%K -4.51%G +0.000%16.4%2026-02-28 07:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (11)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%4.9%2026-02-28 09:14
Bet Right🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%5.4%2026-02-28 17:40
Bovada🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%6.6%2026-02-28 21:00
Betr (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%6.7%2026-02-28 17:40
William Hill🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%7.4%2026-02-28 06:43
BetRivers🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.63%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.38%8.0%2026-02-26 23:14
Bally Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.63%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.38%8.0%2026-02-26 23:14
betPARX🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.63%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.38%8.0%2026-02-26 23:14
Smarkets◎2.36I 42.37%NM 39.18%1.52I 65.79%NM 60.82%8.2%2026-02-28 11:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%1.48I 67.57%NM 61.86%9.2%2026-02-28 17:39
Kalshi◎1.54I 64.94%NM 50.00%1.54I 64.94%NM 50.00%29.9%2026-02-28 22:39