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San Jose Barracuda v Tucson Roadrunners

Kickoff: 2026-10-11 01:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

San Jose Barracuda (Local)

Prediction 45.82%2.18fair odd
EV -6.07%
Edge -2.96%
Kelly -5.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.06%46.22%45.82%47.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.871.951.942.0553.48%51.28%51.55%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tucson Roadrunners (Visit)

Prediction 32.94%3.04fair odd
EV -3.81%
Edge -1.31%
Kelly -1.99%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.91%32.72%32.94%33.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.782.832.9239.22%35.95%35.40%34.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.24%4.71fair odd
EV -2.30%
Edge -0.501%
Kelly -0.640%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.06%21.06%21.24%22.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.364.404.6025.64%22.93%22.73%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: San Jose Barracuda (Local): 45.82%; Tucson Roadrunners (Visit): 32.94%; Draw: 21.24%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.71. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.60, with an expected value of -2.30%; they did not produce positive expected value.

9 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.06%EV -6.07%E -2.96%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.34%EV -3.81%E -1.31%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.37I 22.88%NM 21.61%EV -7.19%E -1.65%K -2.13%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-10 14:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.86%EV -7.44%E -3.68%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.09%EV -7.77%E -2.77%K -4.31%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.05%EV -6.55%E -1.49%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-10 14:00
1xBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.72%EV -8.36%E -4.18%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 32.33%EV -4.80%E -1.66%K -2.54%G +0.000%4.46I 22.42%NM 20.95%EV -5.28%E -1.18%K -1.53%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-11 00:57
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.50%EV -8.36%E -4.18%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.09%EV -9.41%E -3.42%K -5.38%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.41%EV -9.74%E -2.29%K -3.00%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-10 14:00
Codere (IT)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.76%EV -9.73%E -4.94%K -10.03%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.78%EV -9.41%E -3.42%K -5.38%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.46%EV -10.80%E -2.57%K -3.37%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-10 14:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.05%EV -10.19%E -5.20%K -10.62%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.43%EV -11.06%E -4.10%K -6.51%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -6.55%E -1.49%K -1.93%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-10 14:00
Unibet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.44%EV -10.65%E -5.46%K -11.21%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.46%EV -6.12%E -2.15%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.11%EV -2.30%E -0.501%K -0.640%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-10 14:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.56%EV -11.11%E -5.73%K -11.82%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.38%EV -6.12%E -2.15%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.06%EV -2.30%E -0.501%K -0.640%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-10 14:01
Grosvenor🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.56%EV -11.11%E -5.73%K -11.82%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.38%EV -6.12%E -2.15%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.06%EV -2.30%E -0.501%K -0.640%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-10 14:00
Casumo🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.56%EV -11.11%E -5.73%K -11.82%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.38%EV -6.12%E -2.15%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.06%EV -2.30%E -0.501%K -0.640%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-10 14:01
Svenska Spel🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.56%EV -11.11%E -5.73%K -11.82%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.38%EV -6.12%E -2.15%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.06%EV -2.30%E -0.501%K -0.640%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-10 14:01
ATG (SE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.56%EV -11.11%E -5.73%K -11.82%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.38%EV -6.12%E -2.15%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.06%EV -2.30%E -0.501%K -0.640%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-10 14:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 45.37%EV -12.94%E -6.81%K -14.38%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.53%EV -12.71%E -4.80%K -7.70%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.10%EV -17.17%E -4.40%K -5.92%G +0.000%16.0%2026-10-11 01:01
Winamax (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 45.09%EV -12.94%E -6.81%K -14.38%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 32.95%EV -14.35%E -5.52%K -8.97%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.97%EV -17.17%E -4.40%K -5.92%G +0.000%16.7%2026-10-11 01:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 45.06%EV -13.86%E -7.37%K -15.75%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 33.22%EV -16.00%E -6.27%K -10.32%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.72%EV -17.17%E -4.40%K -5.92%G +0.000%18.0%2026-10-11 00:35
Tipico (DE)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 47.78%EV -14.31%E -7.65%K -16.45%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -7.77%E -2.77%K -4.31%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.31%EV -6.55%E -1.49%K -1.93%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-10 20:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (9)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Bet Right🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.42%5.2%2026-10-10 14:00
theScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%5.3%2026-10-10 14:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.44%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%6.8%2026-10-10 14:00
betPARX🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%7.6%2026-10-10 14:01
Bally Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%7.6%2026-10-10 14:00
BetRivers🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%8.0%2026-10-10 14:00
Smarkets◎1.63I 61.35%NM 56.76%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.24%8.1%2026-10-10 14:01
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.33%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%9.0%2026-10-10 14:00
Kalshi◎1.28I 78.13%NM 63.94%2.27I 44.05%NM 36.06%22.2%2026-10-11 01:00