The School of Odds
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San Jose Barracuda v San Diego Gulls

Kickoff: 2026-10-04 22:06 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

San Jose Barracuda (Local)

Prediction 33.17%3.01fair odd
EV -0.497%
Edge -0.166%
Kelly -0.248%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.89%32.99%33.17%33.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.832.853.0040.00%35.28%35.09%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

San Diego Gulls (Visit)

Prediction 45.65%2.19fair odd
EV -5.50%
Edge -2.66%
Kelly -5.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.16%45.97%45.65%47.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.871.961.972.0753.48%51.02%50.76%48.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.18%4.72fair odd
EV -3.21%
Edge -0.702%
Kelly -0.899%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.31%21.04%21.18%22.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.214.204.5725.97%23.77%23.81%21.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: San Jose Barracuda (Local): 33.17%; San Diego Gulls (Visit): 45.65%; Draw: 21.18%. For San Jose Barracuda (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.01. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.00, with an expected value of -0.497%; they did not produce positive expected value.

9 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -0.497%E -0.166%K -0.248%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.92%EV -9.61%E -4.85%K -9.80%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.12%EV -11.04%E -2.63%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-04 19:45
PMU (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.89%EV -0.497%E -0.166%K -0.248%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.04%EV -10.06%E -5.11%K -10.38%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV -11.04%E -2.63%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-04 19:45
Unibet (NL)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.89%EV -0.497%E -0.166%K -0.248%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.04%EV -10.06%E -5.11%K -10.38%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV -11.04%E -2.63%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-04 19:45
Casumo🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.89%EV -0.497%E -0.166%K -0.248%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.04%EV -10.06%E -5.11%K -10.38%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV -11.04%E -2.63%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-04 19:45
Grosvenor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.89%EV -0.497%E -0.166%K -0.248%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.04%EV -10.06%E -5.11%K -10.38%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV -11.04%E -2.63%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-04 19:45
ATG (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.89%EV -0.497%E -0.166%K -0.248%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.04%EV -10.06%E -5.11%K -10.38%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV -11.04%E -2.63%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-04 19:45
Svenska Spel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.89%EV -0.497%E -0.166%K -0.248%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.04%EV -10.06%E -5.11%K -10.38%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV -11.04%E -2.63%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-04 19:45
1xBet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.27%EV -3.81%E -1.32%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.26%EV -9.61%E -4.85%K -9.80%G +0.000%4.57I 21.88%NM 20.48%EV -3.21%E -0.702%K -0.899%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-04 21:59
Tipico (DE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -7.13%E -2.55%K -3.96%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 47.78%EV -14.63%E -7.82%K -16.82%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.31%EV -6.81%E -1.55%K -2.00%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-04 20:30
Unibet (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.78%EV -8.79%E -3.20%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.87%EV -5.50%E -2.66%K -5.14%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.35%EV -7.87%E -1.81%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-04 02:30
Winamax (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.87%EV -8.79%E -3.20%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.59%EV -11.43%E -5.89%K -12.16%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.54%EV -6.81%E -1.55%K -2.00%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-04 22:05
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.79%EV -8.79%E -3.20%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.24%EV -10.98%E -5.63%K -11.56%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.97%EV -8.93%E -2.08%K -2.71%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-04 22:05
Codere (IT)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.49%EV -10.45%E -3.87%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 44.98%EV -8.24%E -4.10%K -8.16%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.53%EV -11.04%E -2.63%K -3.45%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-04 02:30
Winamax (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 32.46%EV -12.11%E -4.57%K -7.34%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 45.76%EV -14.17%E -7.54%K -16.11%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.78%EV -16.34%E -4.14%K -5.54%G +0.000%16.2%2026-10-04 22:05
Betclic (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 33.77%EV -15.42%E -6.05%K -9.95%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 44.16%EV -10.98%E -5.63%K -11.56%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.08%EV -17.40%E -4.46%K -6.00%G +0.000%16.1%2026-10-04 22:04
Unibet (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 33.80%EV -17.08%E -6.83%K -11.39%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 44.25%EV -12.80%E -6.70%K -14.07%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 21.95%EV -18.46%E -4.79%K -6.48%G +0.000%18.3%2026-10-04 21:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (9)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%5.1%2026-10-04 21:59
Bet Right🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%5.3%2026-10-04 21:55
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.27%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.73%7.5%2026-10-04 21:55
BetRivers🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%8.0%2026-10-04 02:30
betPARX🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%8.0%2026-10-04 02:30
Bally Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%8.0%2026-10-04 02:28
Smarkets◎2.10I 47.62%NM 43.85%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.15%8.6%2026-10-04 10:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.70%1.63I 61.35%NM 56.30%9.0%2026-10-04 02:35
Kalshi◎1.54I 64.94%NM 45.20%1.27I 78.74%NM 54.80%43.7%2026-10-04 22:05