The School of Odds
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San Jose Barracuda v Coachella Valley Firebirds

Kickoff: 2026-03-18 17:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

San Jose Barracuda (Local)

Prediction 41.20%2.43fair odd
EV -1.93%
Edge -0.813%
Kelly -1.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.91%41.74%41.20%43.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.252.272.3850.00%44.51%44.05%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Coachella Valley Firebirds (Visit)

Prediction 36.42%2.75fair odd
EV -6.41%
Edge -2.49%
Kelly -4.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.07%36.11%36.42%37.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.462.482.5744.44%40.63%40.32%38.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.38%4.47fair odd
EV -3.77%
Edge -0.877%
Kelly -1.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.30%22.16%22.38%23.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.783.983.904.3026.46%25.12%25.64%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: San Jose Barracuda (Local): 41.20%; Coachella Valley Firebirds (Visit): 36.42%; Draw: 22.38%. For San Jose Barracuda (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.43. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.38, with an expected value of -1.93%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.91%EV -1.93%E -0.813%K -1.40%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.34%EV -9.69%E -3.91%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.75%EV -12.72%E -3.26%K -4.39%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-16 17:34
Grosvenor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.91%EV -1.93%E -0.813%K -1.40%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.34%EV -9.69%E -3.91%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.75%EV -12.72%E -3.26%K -4.39%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-16 17:34
Casumo🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.91%EV -1.93%E -0.813%K -1.40%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.34%EV -9.69%E -3.91%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.75%EV -12.72%E -3.26%K -4.39%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-16 17:35
Unibet (NL)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.91%EV -1.93%E -0.813%K -1.40%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.34%EV -9.69%E -3.91%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.75%EV -12.72%E -3.26%K -4.39%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-16 17:34
ATG (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.91%EV -1.93%E -0.813%K -1.40%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.34%EV -9.69%E -3.91%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.75%EV -12.72%E -3.26%K -4.39%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-16 17:34
Svenska Spel🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.91%EV -1.93%E -0.813%K -1.40%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.34%EV -9.69%E -3.91%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.75%EV -12.72%E -3.26%K -4.39%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-16 17:35
LeoVegas🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.19%EV -5.23%E -2.27%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.09%EV -11.51%E -4.73%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.72%EV -14.96%E -3.94%K -5.34%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-16 17:34
GTbets🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.37%EV -6.05%E -2.66%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 36.70%EV -6.41%E -2.49%K -4.08%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.93%EV -3.77%E -0.877%K -1.14%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-16 17:35
Unibet (UK)🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.14%EV -6.47%E -2.85%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -7.14%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.24%EV -6.01%E -1.43%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-17 17:35
1xBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.09%EV -8.53%E -3.84%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 36.93%EV -10.05%E -4.07%K -6.84%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.98%EV -7.13%E -1.72%K -2.26%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-17 14:39
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.15%EV -9.35%E -4.25%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.21%EV -8.96%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.63%EV -10.49%E -2.62%K -3.50%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-17 21:35
Codere (IT)🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 41.02%EV -9.76%E -4.46%K -8.20%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 36.52%EV -10.41%E -4.23%K -7.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -10.49%E -2.62%K -3.50%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-16 17:40
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.85%EV -11.41%E -5.31%K -9.92%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.73%EV -10.78%E -4.40%K -7.43%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.42%EV -6.01%E -1.43%K -1.88%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-16 17:35
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.75%EV -11.41%E -5.31%K -9.92%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.50%EV -12.60%E -5.25%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.75%EV -13.84%E -3.60%K -4.86%G +0.000%14.2%2026-03-18 17:15
Betclic (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.70%EV -13.47%E -6.42%K -12.25%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 36.68%EV -15.15%E -6.50%K -11.39%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 22.61%EV -15.41%E -4.08%K -5.54%G +0.000%17.0%2026-03-18 17:05
Tipico (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -15.53%E -7.58%K -14.79%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.07%EV -7.14%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.30%EV -6.01%E -1.43%K -1.88%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-18 17:25
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 41.40%EV -17.59%E -8.80%K -17.59%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 36.80%EV -18.06%E -8.03%K -14.45%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 21.79%EV -14.96%E -3.94%K -5.34%G +0.000%20.8%2026-03-16 17:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%1.0%2026-03-18 14:00
Bet Right🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%5.1%2026-03-17 03:24
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-03-16 17:34
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%7.9%2026-03-16 17:34
BetRivers🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.08%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.92%8.2%2026-03-16 17:35
betPARX🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.08%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.92%8.2%2026-03-16 17:35
Bally Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.08%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.92%8.2%2026-03-16 17:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%8.2%2026-03-17 17:40
Smarkets◎1.76I 56.82%NM 52.43%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.57%8.4%2026-03-18 09:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.77%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.23%9.1%2026-03-17 17:35