The School of Odds
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San Jose Barracuda v Coachella Valley Firebirds

Kickoff: 2026-04-15 02:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

San Jose Barracuda (Local)

Prediction 38.91%2.57fair odd
EV -7.01%
Edge -2.93%
Kelly -5.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.39

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.06%38.91%38.74%40.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.302.332.3946.51%43.57%42.92%41.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Coachella Valley Firebirds (Visit)

Prediction 39.43%2.54fair odd
EV +0.558%
Edge +0.219%
Kelly +0.360%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.50%39.43%39.58%40.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.422.452.5545.45%41.33%40.82%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.66%4.62fair odd
EV -6.22%
Edge -1.44%
Kelly -1.87%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.92%21.66%21.68%23.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.033.954.3326.32%24.82%25.32%23.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: San Jose Barracuda (Local): 38.91%; Coachella Valley Firebirds (Visit): 39.43%; Draw: 21.66%. For Coachella Valley Firebirds (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.54. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.558%.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.94%EV -9.35%E -4.01%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.50%EV +0.558%E +0.219%K +0.360%G +0.002%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -14.45%E -3.66%K -4.90%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-13 02:05
PMU (FR)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.94%EV -9.35%E -4.01%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.50%EV +0.558%E +0.219%K +0.360%G +0.002%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -14.45%E -3.66%K -4.90%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-13 02:04
Unibet (NL)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.94%EV -9.35%E -4.01%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.50%EV +0.558%E +0.219%K +0.360%G +0.002%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -14.45%E -3.66%K -4.90%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-13 02:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.94%EV -9.35%E -4.01%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.50%EV +0.558%E +0.219%K +0.360%G +0.002%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -14.45%E -3.66%K -4.90%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-13 02:04
Casumo🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.94%EV -9.35%E -4.01%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.50%EV +0.558%E +0.219%K +0.360%G +0.002%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -14.45%E -3.66%K -4.90%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-13 02:14
Grosvenor🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.94%EV -9.35%E -4.01%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.50%EV +0.558%E +0.219%K +0.360%G +0.002%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -14.45%E -3.66%K -4.90%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-13 02:14
ATG (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.94%EV -9.35%E -4.01%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.50%EV +0.558%E +0.219%K +0.360%G +0.002%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -14.45%E -3.66%K -4.90%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-13 02:14
1xBet🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 40.42%EV -10.13%E -4.38%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 37.96%EV -2.99%E -1.22%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.32I 23.15%NM 21.62%EV -6.43%E -1.49%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-15 01:59
GTbets🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 39.57%EV -7.01%E -2.93%K -5.05%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -3.39%E -1.38%K -2.33%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.84%EV -6.22%E -1.44%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-14 22:10
LeoVegas🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.83%EV -12.46%E -5.54%K -9.97%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.58%EV -3.39%E -1.38%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.59%EV -17.70%E -4.66%K -6.32%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-13 02:14
Codere (IT)🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 39.92%EV -12.07%E -5.34%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 38.07%EV -6.54%E -2.76%K -4.77%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.01%EV -11.20%E -2.73%K -3.61%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-14 21:59
Betway🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.74%EV -8.57%E -3.65%K -6.35%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.58%EV -9.30%E -4.04%K -7.15%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.68%EV -9.03%E -2.15%K -2.82%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-15 02:00
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.98%EV -12.46%E -5.54%K -9.97%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.11%EV -9.30%E -4.04%K -7.15%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.92%EV -6.87%E -1.60%K -2.08%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-15 02:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.67%EV -14.41%E -6.55%K -12.00%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.95%EV -9.30%E -4.04%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.38%EV -15.53%E -3.98%K -5.36%G +0.000%14.6%2026-04-15 01:49
Betclic (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 39.66%EV -16.35%E -7.60%K -14.22%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 37.90%EV -11.27%E -5.01%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.44%EV -17.70%E -4.66%K -6.32%G +0.000%17.3%2026-04-15 01:33
Tipico (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.06%EV -8.57%E -3.65%K -6.35%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.65%EV -13.24%E -6.02%K -11.04%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.29%EV -9.03%E -2.15%K -2.82%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-14 18:30
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.00%EV -14.41%E -6.55%K -12.00%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.00%EV -13.24%E -6.02%K -11.04%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.00%EV -15.53%E -3.98%K -5.36%G +0.000%16.6%2026-04-15 02:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%4.8%2026-04-14 21:55
Bet Right🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%5.3%2026-04-14 23:39
Bally Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 51.88%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.12%7.7%2026-04-13 02:05
betPARX🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 51.88%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.12%7.7%2026-04-13 02:05
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%7.9%2026-04-14 22:09
BetRivers🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 51.75%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.25%7.9%2026-04-13 02:04
Smarkets◎1.82I 54.95%NM 50.81%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.19%8.1%2026-04-14 22:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%8.2%2026-04-14 23:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.95%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.05%9.0%2026-04-14 22:10
Kalshi◎1.89I 52.91%NM 47.21%1.69I 59.17%NM 52.79%12.1%2026-04-15 02:00