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San Diego Gulls v Tucson Roadrunners

Kickoff: 2026-04-16 02:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

San Diego Gulls (Local)

Prediction 42.88%2.33fair odd
EV -4.39%
Edge -1.97%
Kelly -3.57%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.50%42.88%43.25%44.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.142.162.2350.00%46.79%46.30%44.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tucson Roadrunners (Visit)

Prediction 35.13%2.85fair odd
EV -3.39%
Edge -1.23%
Kelly -1.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.93%35.13%34.94%35.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.642.682.7540.82%37.84%37.31%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.99%4.55fair odd
EV -2.13%
Edge -0.479%
Kelly -0.618%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.90%21.99%21.81%23.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.013.954.4526.32%24.94%25.32%22.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: San Diego Gulls (Local): 42.88%; Tucson Roadrunners (Visit): 35.13%; Draw: 21.99%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.55. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.45, with an expected value of -2.13%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.43%EV -4.39%E -1.97%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.04%EV -5.15%E -1.91%K -3.03%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%EV -7.63%E -1.82%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-14 02:20
Unibet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -5.67%E -2.58%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.94%EV -3.39%E -1.23%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.63%EV -13.13%E -3.32%K -4.45%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-15 23:49
PMU (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -5.67%E -2.58%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.94%EV -3.39%E -1.23%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.63%EV -13.13%E -3.32%K -4.45%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-15 23:49
Casumo🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -5.67%E -2.58%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.94%EV -3.39%E -1.23%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.63%EV -13.13%E -3.32%K -4.45%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-15 23:49
Grosvenor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -5.67%E -2.58%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.94%EV -3.39%E -1.23%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.63%EV -13.13%E -3.32%K -4.45%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-15 23:49
Unibet (NL)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -5.67%E -2.58%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.94%EV -3.39%E -1.23%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.63%EV -13.13%E -3.32%K -4.45%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-15 23:49
ATG (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -5.67%E -2.58%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.94%EV -3.39%E -1.23%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.63%EV -13.13%E -3.32%K -4.45%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-15 23:49
Svenska Spel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -5.67%E -2.58%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.94%EV -3.39%E -1.23%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.63%EV -13.13%E -3.32%K -4.45%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-15 23:49
Codere (IT)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 41.60%EV -7.39%E -3.42%K -6.37%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.94%EV -12.17%E -4.87%K -8.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -12.03%E -3.01%K -4.01%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-14 02:19
1xBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.10%EV -9.10%E -4.29%K -8.13%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.89%EV -5.85%E -2.18%K -3.48%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.01%EV -2.13%E -0.479%K -0.618%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-16 01:59
LeoVegas🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.41%EV -9.10%E -4.29%K -8.13%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.93%EV -6.90%E -2.60%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.66%EV -16.43%E -4.32%K -5.87%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-15 23:49
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.33%EV -9.96%E -4.74%K -9.05%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV -8.66%E -3.33%K -5.41%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.67%EV -7.63%E -1.82%K -2.38%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-16 02:04
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.50%EV -9.96%E -4.74%K -9.05%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.57%EV -13.93%E -5.69%K -9.61%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.93%EV -16.43%E -4.32%K -5.87%G +0.000%14.8%2026-04-16 01:49
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.85%EV -12.10%E -5.90%K -11.53%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.25%EV -10.42%E -4.08%K -6.72%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.90%EV -5.43%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-16 02:04
Tipico (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.70%EV -12.10%E -5.90%K -11.53%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.45%EV -8.66%E -3.33%K -5.41%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.85%EV -9.83%E -2.40%K -3.17%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-15 17:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.99%EV -14.25%E -7.12%K -14.25%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.39%EV -12.17%E -4.87%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.62%EV -16.43%E -4.32%K -5.87%G +0.000%16.3%2026-04-16 02:02
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.81%EV -14.25%E -7.12%K -14.25%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 34.95%EV -13.93%E -5.69%K -9.61%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.24%EV -15.33%E -3.98%K -5.38%G +0.000%16.8%2026-04-16 02:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.75I 57.14%NM 54.90%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.10%4.1%2026-04-16 02:04
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%5.1%2026-04-16 02:04
Bet Right🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%5.2%2026-04-15 22:24
William Hill🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%7.6%2026-04-16 02:04
betPARX🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%7.6%2026-04-14 02:25
Bally Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%7.6%2026-04-14 02:24
BetRivers🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.55%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.45%7.8%2026-04-14 02:20
Betr (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%8.1%2026-04-15 02:10
Smarkets◎1.74I 57.47%NM 53.10%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.90%8.2%2026-04-15 14:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%8.8%2026-04-15 02:09