The School of Odds
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San Diego Gulls v Ontario Reign

Kickoff: 2026-10-15 02:06 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

San Diego Gulls (Local)

Prediction 39.93%2.50fair odd
EV -3.76%
Edge -1.56%
Kelly -2.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.49%39.77%39.93%43.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.262.302.4150.00%44.34%43.48%41.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ontario Reign (Visit)

Prediction 37.81%2.64fair odd
EV -1.69%
Edge -0.649%
Kelly -1.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.29%38.12%37.81%40.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.392.402.6045.45%41.85%41.67%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.25%4.49fair odd
EV -3.20%
Edge -0.735%
Kelly -0.955%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.26%22.11%22.25%23.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.144.204.3527.03%24.17%23.81%22.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: San Diego Gulls (Local): 39.93%; Ontario Reign (Visit): 37.81%; Draw: 22.25%. For Ontario Reign (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.64. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.60, with an expected value of -1.69%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 38.79%EV -3.76%E -1.56%K -2.67%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 38.79%EV -8.87%E -3.68%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.17I 23.98%NM 22.42%EV -7.20%E -1.73%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-15 01:59
Tipico (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.06%EV -6.16%E -2.62%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.65%EV -16.81%E -7.64%K -14.01%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.29%EV -6.54%E -1.56%K -2.04%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-14 21:35
Unibet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.21%EV -8.15%E -3.54%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.53%EV -9.25%E -3.85%K -6.61%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.26%EV -3.20%E -0.735%K -0.955%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-14 19:59
Casumo🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.21%EV -8.15%E -3.54%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.53%EV -9.25%E -3.85%K -6.61%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.26%EV -3.20%E -0.735%K -0.955%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-14 20:00
Grosvenor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.21%EV -8.15%E -3.54%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.53%EV -9.25%E -3.85%K -6.61%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.26%EV -3.20%E -0.735%K -0.955%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-14 20:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.21%EV -8.15%E -3.54%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.53%EV -9.25%E -3.85%K -6.61%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.26%EV -3.20%E -0.735%K -0.955%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-14 20:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.21%EV -8.15%E -3.54%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.53%EV -9.25%E -3.85%K -6.61%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.26%EV -3.20%E -0.735%K -0.955%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-14 20:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.21%EV -8.15%E -3.54%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.53%EV -9.25%E -3.85%K -6.61%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.26%EV -3.20%E -0.735%K -0.955%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-14 20:00
Codere (IT)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.24%EV -8.15%E -3.54%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 38.74%EV -11.90%E -5.11%K -8.94%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.02%EV -8.76%E -2.14%K -2.83%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-14 20:05
Betclic (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.49%EV -8.15%E -3.54%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.20%EV -16.81%E -7.64%K -14.01%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.31%EV -17.66%E -4.77%K -6.54%G +0.000%16.0%2026-10-15 02:03
Unibet (UK)🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 40.62%EV -9.35%E -4.12%K -7.36%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -5.47%E -2.19%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -8.76%E -2.14%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-15 02:04
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.15%EV -12.15%E -5.52%K -10.12%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.21%EV -5.47%E -2.19%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.63%EV -10.99%E -2.75%K -3.66%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-15 02:04
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 39.21%EV -14.14%E -6.58%K -12.30%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 38.32%EV -16.81%E -7.64%K -14.01%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.48%EV -16.55%E -4.41%K -6.02%G +0.000%18.6%2026-10-15 01:34
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.93%EV -18.14%E -8.85%K -17.27%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.63%EV -1.69%E -0.649%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.44%EV -6.54%E -1.56%K -2.04%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-15 02:04
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.86%EV -20.13%E -10.07%K -20.13%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.29%EV -5.47%E -2.19%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.86%EV -16.55%E -4.41%K -6.02%G +0.000%16.7%2026-10-15 02:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Bet Right🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%5.3%2026-10-15 01:34
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-10-15 02:05
GTbets🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.99%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.01%6.3%2026-10-15 02:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%7.0%2026-10-15 00:00
Bally Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.21%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.79%7.3%2026-10-14 20:00
betPARX🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.21%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.79%7.3%2026-10-14 20:00
Smarkets◎1.84I 54.35%NM 50.27%1.86I 53.76%NM 49.73%8.1%2026-10-14 20:00
BetRivers🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.08%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.92%8.2%2026-10-14 20:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%9.3%2026-10-14 20:00
Kalshi◎1.41I 70.92%NM 56.75%1.85I 54.05%NM 43.25%25.0%2026-10-15 02:05