The School of Odds
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San Diego Gulls v Coachella Valley Firebirds

Kickoff: 2026-10-22 02:08 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

San Diego Gulls (Local)

Prediction 38.40%2.60fair odd
EV -7.46%
Edge -3.09%
Kelly -5.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.93%38.40%38.40%40.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.352.402.4145.45%42.48%41.67%41.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Coachella Valley Firebirds (Visit)

Prediction 39.62%2.52fair odd
EV -2.94%
Edge -1.20%
Kelly -2.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.61%39.62%39.62%41.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.332.402.4547.62%42.93%41.67%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.98%4.55fair odd
EV +1.79%
Edge +0.386%
Kelly +0.492%
Growth +0.009%

assuming max odds 4.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.20%21.98%21.98%23.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.064.004.6326.67%24.65%25.00%21.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: San Diego Gulls (Local): 38.40%; Coachella Valley Firebirds (Visit): 39.62%; Draw: 21.98%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.55. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.63, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.79%.

9 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.32%EV -10.91%E -4.70%K -8.27%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.47%EV -6.11%E -2.58%K -4.46%G +0.000%4.63I 21.60%NM 20.20%EV +1.79%E +0.386%K +0.492%G +0.009%6.9%2026-10-22 01:59
GTbets🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 38.68%EV -7.46%E -3.09%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 40.70%EV -9.28%E -4.05%K -7.19%G +0.000%4.52I 22.12%NM 20.62%EV -0.633%E -0.140%K -0.180%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-21 22:05
Tipico (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.06%EV -9.76%E -4.15%K -7.23%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.61%EV -14.82%E -6.90%K -12.89%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.33%EV -3.27%E -0.743%K -0.962%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-22 01:30
Unibet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -7.84%E -3.27%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -4.92%E -2.05%K -3.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -12.06%E -3.02%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-21 21:30
Grosvenor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -7.84%E -3.27%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -4.92%E -2.05%K -3.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -12.06%E -3.02%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-21 21:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -7.84%E -3.27%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -4.92%E -2.05%K -3.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -12.06%E -3.02%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-21 21:30
Casumo🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -7.84%E -3.27%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -4.92%E -2.05%K -3.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -12.06%E -3.02%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-21 21:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -7.84%E -3.27%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -4.92%E -2.05%K -3.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -12.06%E -3.02%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-21 21:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -7.84%E -3.27%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -4.92%E -2.05%K -3.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -12.06%E -3.02%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-21 21:30
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.36%EV -11.68%E -5.08%K -8.99%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.72%EV -4.92%E -2.05%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.92%EV -13.16%E -3.33%K -4.46%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-22 02:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.73%EV -8.61%E -3.62%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.63%EV -2.94%E -1.20%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -14.26%E -3.66%K -4.92%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-22 02:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 38.65%EV -15.52%E -7.06%K -12.93%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 39.55%EV -14.82%E -6.90%K -12.89%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.80%EV -14.26%E -3.66%K -4.92%G +0.000%17.6%2026-10-22 01:34
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.32%EV -15.52%E -7.06%K -12.93%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.61%EV -8.88%E -3.86%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.07%EV -17.56%E -4.68%K -6.39%G +0.000%15.6%2026-10-22 02:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 35.93%EV -7.84%E -3.27%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.07%EV -16.81%E -8.00%K -15.28%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.00%EV -17.56%E -4.68%K -6.39%G +0.000%16.0%2026-10-22 02:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (9)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%4.8%2026-10-22 02:00
Bet Right🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%5.3%2026-10-22 01:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.33%1.84I 54.35%NM 50.67%7.3%2026-10-22 01:30
Bally Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.27%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.73%7.5%2026-10-21 21:28
betPARX🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.27%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.73%7.5%2026-10-21 21:30
Smarkets◎1.87I 53.48%NM 49.32%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.68%8.4%2026-10-22 01:30
BetRivers🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.73%8.7%2026-10-21 21:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.05%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.95%9.0%2026-10-21 22:10
Kalshi◎1.85I 54.05%NM 47.44%1.67I 59.88%NM 52.56%13.9%2026-10-22 02:05