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Rochester Americans v Toronto Marlies

Kickoff: 2026-10-02 23:11 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rochester Americans (Local)

Prediction 45.73%2.19fair odd
EV -3.04%
Edge -1.44%
Kelly -2.72%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.38%45.36%45.74%46.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.882.052.092.1253.19%48.71%47.85%47.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Toronto Marlies (Visit)

Prediction 31.78%3.15fair odd
EV -6.25%
Edge -2.12%
Kelly -3.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.51%32.15%31.84%34.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.752.702.9537.74%36.31%37.04%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.48%4.45fair odd
EV -2.42%
Edge -0.557%
Kelly -0.724%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.54%22.48%22.42%22.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.164.224.3426.67%24.06%23.70%23.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rochester Americans (Local): 45.73%; Toronto Marlies (Visit): 31.78%; Draw: 22.48%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.45. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.34, with an expected value of -2.42%; they did not produce positive expected value.

9 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.89%EV -3.04%E -1.44%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -14.19%E -5.26%K -8.35%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.64%EV -3.32%E -0.771%K -1.00%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-02 09:59
PMU (FR)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.89%EV -3.04%E -1.44%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -14.19%E -5.26%K -8.35%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.64%EV -3.32%E -0.771%K -1.00%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-02 10:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.89%EV -3.04%E -1.44%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -14.19%E -5.26%K -8.35%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.64%EV -3.32%E -0.771%K -1.00%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-02 10:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.89%EV -3.04%E -1.44%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -14.19%E -5.26%K -8.35%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.64%EV -3.32%E -0.771%K -1.00%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-02 10:00
Grosvenor🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.89%EV -3.04%E -1.44%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -14.19%E -5.26%K -8.35%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.64%EV -3.32%E -0.771%K -1.00%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-02 12:20
Casumo🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.89%EV -3.04%E -1.44%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -14.19%E -5.26%K -8.35%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.64%EV -3.32%E -0.771%K -1.00%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-02 12:19
ATG (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.89%EV -3.04%E -1.44%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -14.19%E -5.26%K -8.35%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.64%EV -3.32%E -0.771%K -1.00%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-02 12:25
GTbets🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 45.13%EV -4.42%E -2.11%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.52%EV -7.83%E -2.70%K -4.12%G +0.000%4.22I 23.70%NM 22.35%EV -5.11%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-02 10:00
1xBet🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 44.72%EV -4.42%E -2.11%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 33.74%EV -11.97%E -4.32%K -6.76%G +0.000%4.34I 23.04%NM 21.54%EV -2.42%E -0.557%K -0.724%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-02 23:03
Codere (IT)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.38%EV -5.33%E -2.57%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.89%EV -15.78%E -5.95%K -9.56%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.73%EV -11.19%E -2.83%K -3.79%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-02 09:59
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.49%EV -6.24%E -3.05%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.65%EV -15.78%E -5.95%K -9.56%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.86%EV -12.31%E -3.16%K -4.24%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-02 22:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.17%EV -7.62%E -3.77%K -7.47%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.62%EV -6.25%E -2.12%K -3.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.21%EV -5.56%E -1.32%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-02 23:10
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.42%EV -8.53%E -4.27%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.87%EV -9.42%E -3.31%K -5.09%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.71%EV -10.06%E -2.52%K -3.35%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-02 23:09
Winamax (DE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.15%EV -10.36%E -5.29%K -10.79%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.31%EV -11.01%E -3.93%K -6.12%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.54%EV -5.56%E -1.32%K -1.74%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-02 23:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.05%EV -10.82%E -5.55%K -11.39%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.51%EV -9.42%E -3.31%K -5.09%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.45%EV -10.06%E -2.52%K -3.35%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-02 23:09
Tipico (DE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.79%EV -10.82%E -5.55%K -11.39%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.89%EV -11.01%E -3.93%K -6.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.32%EV -10.06%E -2.52%K -3.35%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-02 21:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 45.50%EV -14.02%E -7.46%K -15.93%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.68%EV -14.19%E -5.26%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.81%EV -15.68%E -4.18%K -5.70%G +0.000%16.9%2026-10-02 23:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (9)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%5.1%2026-10-02 23:10
Bet Right🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.95%2.11I 47.39%NM 45.05%5.2%2026-10-02 23:00
Bally Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.21%7.4%2026-10-02 10:00
betPARX🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.21%7.4%2026-10-02 10:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%7.6%2026-10-02 23:00
BetRivers🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.96%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.04%8.3%2026-10-02 10:00
Kalshi◎1.75I 57.14%NM 52.32%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.68%9.2%2026-10-02 23:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.74%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.26%9.4%2026-10-02 22:45
Smarkets◎1.61I 62.11%NM 56.37%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.63%10.2%2026-10-02 23:05