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Rochester Americans v Providence Bruins

Kickoff: 2026-04-04 21:19 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rochester Americans (Local)

Prediction 34.08%2.93fair odd
EV -6.28%
Edge -2.28%
Kelly -3.59%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.73%34.15%34.08%34.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.672.732.7540.00%37.38%36.70%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Providence Bruins (Visit)

Prediction 43.60%2.29fair odd
EV -4.07%
Edge -1.85%
Kelly -3.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.91%43.67%43.60%44.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.982.132.132.2050.51%46.96%46.84%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.32%4.48fair odd
EV -4.94%
Edge -1.16%
Kelly -1.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.35%22.19%22.32%24.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.703.953.854.2627.03%25.34%25.97%23.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rochester Americans (Local): 34.08%; Providence Bruins (Visit): 43.60%; Draw: 22.32%. For Providence Bruins (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.29. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.20, with an expected value of -4.07%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -6.28%E -2.28%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.06%EV -7.56%E -3.57%K -6.75%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.98%EV -5.16%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 21:14
Unibet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.28%E -2.28%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.17%EV -4.07%E -1.85%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -14.08%E -3.66%K -4.94%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-04 21:15
Casumo🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.28%E -2.28%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.17%EV -4.07%E -1.85%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -14.08%E -3.66%K -4.94%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-04 21:14
Grosvenor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.28%E -2.28%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.17%EV -4.07%E -1.85%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -14.08%E -3.66%K -4.94%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-04 21:15
Unibet (NL)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.28%E -2.28%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.17%EV -4.07%E -1.85%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -14.08%E -3.66%K -4.94%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-04 21:15
PMU (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.28%E -2.28%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.17%EV -4.07%E -1.85%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -14.08%E -3.66%K -4.94%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-04 21:14
ATG (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.28%E -2.28%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.17%EV -4.07%E -1.85%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -14.08%E -3.66%K -4.94%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-04 21:14
Svenska Spel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.28%E -2.28%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.17%EV -4.07%E -1.85%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -14.08%E -3.66%K -4.94%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-04 21:14
1xBet🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 34.13%EV -6.62%E -2.42%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 43.91%EV -7.12%E -3.34%K -6.30%G +0.000%4.26I 23.47%NM 21.96%EV -4.94%E -1.16%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-04 21:04
GTbets🎯2.71I 36.90%NM 34.81%EV -7.64%E -2.82%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.88%EV -4.07%E -1.85%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.23I 23.64%NM 22.30%EV -5.60%E -1.32%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-04 21:05
Betway🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.19%EV -9.69%E -3.66%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -8.43%E -4.01%K -7.66%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -10.74%E -2.68%K -3.58%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-04 21:15
LeoVegas🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.85%EV -9.69%E -3.66%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 41.91%EV -6.69%E -3.12%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.24%EV -17.43%E -4.71%K -6.46%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-04 21:15
Tipico (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.83%EV -9.69%E -3.66%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.82%EV -12.79%E -6.40%K -12.79%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.35%EV -6.27%E -1.49%K -1.96%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-04 21:13
Winamax (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.63%EV -11.39%E -4.38%K -7.12%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.93%EV -10.61%E -5.18%K -10.11%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.44%EV -6.27%E -1.49%K -1.96%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-04 21:15
Codere (IT)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.60%EV -11.39%E -4.38%K -7.12%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 42.63%EV -7.99%E -3.79%K -7.20%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.77%EV -11.85%E -3.00%K -4.02%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-04 21:15
Unibet (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.20%EV -13.10%E -5.14%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.54%EV -10.61%E -5.18%K -10.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.26%EV -16.32%E -4.35%K -5.93%G +0.000%14.7%2026-04-04 21:04
Betclic (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.65%EV -14.80%E -5.92%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.25%EV -10.61%E -5.18%K -10.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.10%EV -16.32%E -4.35%K -5.93%G +0.000%15.4%2026-04-04 21:13
Winamax (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.24%EV -14.80%E -5.92%K -9.87%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 43.23%EV -13.66%E -6.90%K -13.94%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.53%EV -15.20%E -4.00%K -5.43%G +0.000%16.8%2026-04-04 21:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%5.0%2026-04-04 21:14
Bet Right🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%5.2%2026-04-04 21:04
betPARX🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.60%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.40%7.5%2026-04-04 21:14
Bally Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.60%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.40%7.5%2026-04-04 21:14
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%7.5%2026-04-04 21:15
Betr (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%8.1%2026-04-04 21:03
BetRivers🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.70%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.30%8.3%2026-04-04 21:15
Smarkets◎2.02I 49.50%NM 45.70%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.30%8.3%2026-04-04 21:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%8.8%2026-04-04 21:04
Kalshi◎1.37I 72.99%NM 48.30%1.28I 78.13%NM 51.70%51.1%2026-04-04 21:14