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Rochester Americans v Belleville Senators

Kickoff: 2026-04-03 23:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rochester Americans (Local)

Prediction 46.27%2.16fair odd
EV -2.37%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -2.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.64%46.32%46.27%47.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.872.022.042.1153.48%49.53%49.02%47.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Belleville Senators (Visit)

Prediction 32.08%3.12fair odd
EV -5.36%
Edge -1.82%
Kelly -2.75%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.85%31.94%32.08%33.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.842.882.9538.46%35.17%34.78%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.65%4.62fair odd
EV -5.83%
Edge -1.34%
Kelly -1.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.99%21.74%21.65%23.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.784.023.904.3526.46%24.86%25.64%22.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rochester Americans (Local): 46.27%; Belleville Senators (Visit): 32.08%; Draw: 21.65%. For Rochester Americans (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.16. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.11, with an expected value of -2.37%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 44.69%EV -2.37%E -1.12%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 33.32%EV -9.21%E -3.25%K -5.03%G +0.000%4.29I 23.31%NM 21.98%EV -7.13%E -1.66%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-02 05:54
Unibet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.67%EV -3.76%E -1.81%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.50%EV -5.36%E -1.82%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -15.57%E -3.99%K -5.37%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-03 22:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.67%EV -3.76%E -1.81%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.50%EV -5.36%E -1.82%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -15.57%E -3.99%K -5.37%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-03 22:20
Casumo🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.67%EV -3.76%E -1.81%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.50%EV -5.36%E -1.82%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -15.57%E -3.99%K -5.37%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-03 22:20
Grosvenor🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.67%EV -3.76%E -1.81%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.50%EV -5.36%E -1.82%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -15.57%E -3.99%K -5.37%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-03 22:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.67%EV -3.76%E -1.81%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.50%EV -5.36%E -1.82%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -15.57%E -3.99%K -5.37%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-03 22:19
ATG (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.67%EV -3.76%E -1.81%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.50%EV -5.36%E -1.82%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -15.57%E -3.99%K -5.37%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-03 22:20
PMU (FR)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.67%EV -3.76%E -1.81%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.50%EV -5.36%E -1.82%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -15.57%E -3.99%K -5.37%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-03 22:20
1xBet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.33%EV -4.68%E -2.27%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.11%EV -9.53%E -3.38%K -5.24%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.56%EV -6.26%E -1.45%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-03 23:00
LeoVegas🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.64%EV -6.53%E -3.23%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.64%EV -8.57%E -3.01%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.73%EV -17.74%E -4.67%K -6.33%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-03 22:19
Unibet (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.78%EV -7.46%E -3.73%K -7.46%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -5.36%E -1.82%K -2.75%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.51%EV -5.83%E -1.34%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-03 23:05
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -7.46%E -3.73%K -7.46%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -11.78%E -4.28%K -6.73%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.61%EV -9.08%E -2.16%K -2.84%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-03 23:05
Codere (IT)🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 45.29%EV -7.92%E -3.98%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.19%EV -10.17%E -3.63%K -5.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.53%EV -13.41%E -3.35%K -4.47%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-02 16:49
Winamax (DE)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 45.58%EV -8.38%E -4.23%K -8.56%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.43%EV -13.38%E -4.96%K -7.87%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.99%EV -6.91%E -1.61%K -2.10%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-03 23:04
Unibet (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 45.00%EV -10.23%E -5.28%K -10.89%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.33%EV -13.38%E -4.96%K -7.87%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.67%EV -16.66%E -4.33%K -5.84%G +0.000%14.6%2026-04-03 22:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 44.81%EV -11.62%E -6.09%K -12.77%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 32.54%EV -15.63%E -5.94%K -9.59%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 22.64%EV -18.17%E -4.81%K -6.54%G +0.000%16.8%2026-04-03 22:38
Winamax (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 45.34%EV -12.09%E -6.36%K -13.43%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.13%EV -16.59%E -6.38%K -10.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.53%EV -13.41%E -3.35%K -4.47%G +0.000%16.1%2026-04-03 23:04
Tipico (DE)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 47.85%EV -13.47%E -7.21%K -15.49%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.85%EV -6.96%E -2.40%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.30%EV -9.08%E -2.16%K -2.84%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-03 22:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Bet Right🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%5.3%2026-04-03 21:39
theScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%5.3%2026-04-02 16:50
Bally Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.11%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.89%7.4%2026-04-03 22:20
betPARX🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.11%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.89%7.4%2026-04-03 22:19
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%7.5%2026-04-02 17:15
Betr (AU)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.85%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.15%7.9%2026-04-03 11:40
BetRivers🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.14%2.16I 46.30%NM 42.86%8.0%2026-04-03 22:19
Smarkets◎1.63I 61.35%NM 56.53%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.47%8.5%2026-04-03 11:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.30%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.70%9.0%2026-04-03 11:40
Kalshi◎1.28I 78.13%NM 52.42%1.41I 70.92%NM 47.58%49.0%2026-04-03 23:05