The School of Odds
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Providence Bruins v Springfield Thunderbirds

Kickoff: 2026-03-29 19:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Providence Bruins (Local)

Prediction 52.79%1.89fair odd
EV -6.04%
Edge -3.39%
Kelly -7.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.78%52.79%52.79%53.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.721.751.7862.50%58.23%57.14%56.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Springfield Thunderbirds (Visit)

Prediction 24.52%4.08fair odd
EV -4.86%
Edge -1.25%
Kelly -1.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.29%24.52%24.52%25.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.683.803.8830.77%27.18%26.32%25.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.69%4.41fair odd
EV -6.06%
Edge -1.46%
Kelly -1.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.97%22.69%22.69%23.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.004.104.1427.03%25.00%24.39%24.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Providence Bruins (Local): 52.79%; Springfield Thunderbirds (Visit): 24.52%; Draw: 22.69%. For Springfield Thunderbirds (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.08. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.88, with an expected value of -4.86%; they did not produce positive expected value.

7 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.95%EV -6.04%E -3.39%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.29%EV -4.86%E -1.25%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.14I 24.15%NM 22.76%EV -6.06%E -1.46%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-27 19:45
Unibet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.98%EV -7.62%E -4.35%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.40%EV -6.82%E -1.80%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.62%EV -6.96%E -1.70%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-27 19:25
Casumo🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.98%EV -7.62%E -4.35%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.40%EV -6.82%E -1.80%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.62%EV -6.96%E -1.70%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-27 19:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.98%EV -7.62%E -4.35%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.40%EV -6.82%E -1.80%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.62%EV -6.96%E -1.70%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-27 19:25
Grosvenor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.98%EV -7.62%E -4.35%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.40%EV -6.82%E -1.80%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.62%EV -6.96%E -1.70%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-27 19:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.98%EV -7.62%E -4.35%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.40%EV -6.82%E -1.80%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.62%EV -6.96%E -1.70%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-27 19:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.98%EV -7.62%E -4.35%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.40%EV -6.82%E -1.80%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.62%EV -6.96%E -1.70%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-27 19:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.98%EV -7.62%E -4.35%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.40%EV -6.82%E -1.80%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.62%EV -6.96%E -1.70%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-27 19:25
1xBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.95%EV -9.20%E -5.35%K -12.78%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.29%EV -8.05%E -2.15%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.77%EV -9.23%E -2.31%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-27 19:35
Codere (IT)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 52.59%EV -9.73%E -5.69%K -13.71%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.64%EV -10.50%E -2.88%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.77%EV -10.37%E -2.62%K -3.51%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-27 19:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.00%EV -10.26%E -6.04%K -14.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.03%EV -11.73%E -3.26%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.97%EV -6.96%E -1.70%K -2.25%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-27 21:10
LeoVegas🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.89%EV -10.26%E -6.04%K -14.66%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.63%EV -10.50%E -2.88%K -3.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -9.23%E -2.31%K -3.08%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-27 19:25
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 51.78%EV -12.90%E -7.82%K -19.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.13%EV -16.63%E -4.89%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.09%EV -16.04%E -4.34%K -5.94%G +0.000%17.0%2026-03-27 19:25
Unibet (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 51.78%EV -12.90%E -7.82%K -19.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.13%EV -16.63%E -4.89%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.09%EV -16.04%E -4.34%K -5.94%G +0.000%17.0%2026-03-27 19:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 51.96%EV -15.54%E -9.71%K -25.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 25.58%EV -20.31%E -6.25%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 22.47%EV -16.04%E -4.34%K -5.94%G +0.000%20.3%2026-03-27 21:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (7)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Bet Right🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%5.3%2026-03-27 20:40
theScore Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%6.0%2026-03-27 19:25
Bally Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%7.5%2026-03-27 19:25
betPARX🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%7.5%2026-03-27 19:25
BetRivers🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%8.2%2026-03-27 19:25
Smarkets◎1.42I 70.42%NM 63.96%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.04%10.1%2026-03-27 19:25
Kalshi◎1.08I 92.59%NM 50.00%1.08I 92.59%NM 50.00%85.2%2026-03-28 02:05