The School of Odds
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Providence Bruins v Springfield Thunderbirds

Kickoff: 2026-05-03 23:25 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Providence Bruins (Local)

Prediction 51.15%1.96fair odd
EV -4.36%
Edge -2.33%
Kelly -5.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.81%51.15%51.52%53.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.641.801.831.8760.98%55.61%54.79%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Springfield Thunderbirds (Visit)

Prediction 27.41%3.65fair odd
EV -4.07%
Edge -1.16%
Kelly -1.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.42%27.41%27.02%28.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.293.303.5032.26%30.39%30.30%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.45%4.66fair odd
EV -5.64%
Edge -1.28%
Kelly -1.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.51%21.45%21.46%22.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.954.254.344.4025.32%23.53%23.04%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Providence Bruins (Local): 51.15%; Springfield Thunderbirds (Visit): 27.41%; Draw: 21.45%. For Springfield Thunderbirds (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.65. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.50, with an expected value of -4.07%; they did not produce positive expected value.

8 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.37%EV -4.36%E -2.33%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.87%EV -7.36%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.76%EV -7.14%E -1.65%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-02 07:10
1xBet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.98%EV -4.36%E -2.33%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 28.58%EV -10.37%E -3.17%K -4.57%G +0.000%4.36I 22.94%NM 21.44%EV -6.50%E -1.49%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 23:04
Unibet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.22%EV -4.87%E -2.62%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -9.55%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.47%EV -6.71%E -1.54%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-02 07:10
Casumo🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.36%EV -5.38%E -2.91%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -9.55%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.42%EV -6.71%E -1.54%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-02 07:10
Grosvenor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.36%EV -5.38%E -2.91%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -9.55%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.42%EV -6.71%E -1.54%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-02 07:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.36%EV -5.38%E -2.91%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -9.55%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.42%EV -6.71%E -1.54%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-02 07:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.36%EV -5.38%E -2.91%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -9.55%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.42%EV -6.71%E -1.54%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-02 07:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.23%EV -5.38%E -2.91%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.16%EV -9.55%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.61%EV -7.79%E -1.81%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-03 23:05
LeoVegas🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.22%EV -7.94%E -4.41%K -9.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -12.29%E -3.84%K -5.59%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -9.93%E -2.36%K -3.10%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-02 07:09
Unibet (UK)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.01%EV -9.47%E -5.35%K -12.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.07%EV -6.81%E -2.00%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -5.64%E -1.28%K -1.66%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-03 23:05
Betway🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.62%EV -9.47%E -5.35%K -12.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -6.81%E -2.00%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.50%EV -8.86%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-03 23:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 49.81%EV -9.98%E -5.67%K -13.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.28%EV -15.03%E -4.85%K -7.16%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.92%EV -14.22%E -3.55%K -4.74%G +0.000%14.1%2026-05-03 22:39
PMU (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.22%EV -10.49%E -6.00%K -13.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.35%EV -15.03%E -4.85%K -7.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.43%EV -12.07%E -2.94%K -3.89%G +0.000%13.8%2026-05-03 23:05
Unibet (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 49.81%EV -10.49%E -6.00%K -13.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.12%EV -15.03%E -4.85%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.07%EV -15.29%E -3.87%K -5.18%G +0.000%14.7%2026-05-03 22:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.71%EV -14.07%E -8.38%K -20.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -4.07%E -1.16%K -1.63%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -5.64%E -1.28%K -1.66%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-03 23:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 52.70%EV -16.12%E -9.83%K -25.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.42%EV -6.81%E -2.00%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.88%EV -15.29%E -3.87%K -5.18%G +0.000%15.7%2026-05-03 23:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (8)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.54I 64.94%NM 62.44%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.56%4.0%2026-05-03 23:00
theScore Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%5.1%2026-05-03 23:05
William Hill🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%7.4%2026-05-03 06:15
betPARX🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.18%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.82%7.9%2026-05-02 07:10
Smarkets◎1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%8.3%2026-05-03 11:11
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.43%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.57%9.2%2026-05-03 23:05
Bally Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.82%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.18%9.8%2026-05-03 23:05
BetRivers🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.79%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.21%10.6%2026-05-03 23:05