The School of Odds
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Providence Bruins v Springfield Thunderbirds

Kickoff: 2026-10-04 19:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Providence Bruins (Local)

Prediction 31.71%3.15fair odd
EV -0.759%
Edge -0.243%
Kelly -0.356%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.91%31.84%31.71%32.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.932.953.1337.04%34.10%33.90%31.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Springfield Thunderbirds (Visit)

Prediction 45.45%2.20fair odd
EV -6.37%
Edge -3.09%
Kelly -6.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.21%45.57%45.51%48.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.901.992.022.0652.63%50.13%49.50%48.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.84%4.38fair odd
EV -2.00%
Edge -0.467%
Kelly -0.609%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.26%22.59%22.78%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.834.003.954.2926.11%24.98%25.32%23.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Providence Bruins (Local): 31.71%; Springfield Thunderbirds (Visit): 45.45%; Draw: 22.84%. For Providence Bruins (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.15. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.13, with an expected value of -0.759%; they did not produce positive expected value.

9 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯3.13I 31.95%NM 29.91%EV -0.759%E -0.243%K -0.356%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.26%EV -11.83%E -6.10%K -12.58%G +0.000%4.29I 23.31%NM 21.82%EV -2.00%E -0.467%K -0.609%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-04 17:30
Unibet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -3.30%E -1.08%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.00%EV -8.19%E -4.05%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.53%EV -9.77%E -2.47%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-04 15:00
Grosvenor🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -3.30%E -1.08%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.00%EV -8.19%E -4.05%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.53%EV -9.77%E -2.47%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-04 15:00
Casumo🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -3.30%E -1.08%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.00%EV -8.19%E -4.05%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.53%EV -9.77%E -2.47%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-04 15:00
PMU (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -3.30%E -1.08%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.00%EV -8.19%E -4.05%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.53%EV -9.77%E -2.47%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-04 15:00
Unibet (NL)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -3.30%E -1.08%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.00%EV -8.19%E -4.05%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.53%EV -9.77%E -2.47%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-04 15:00
Svenska Spel🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -3.30%E -1.08%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.00%EV -8.19%E -4.05%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.53%EV -9.77%E -2.47%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-04 15:00
ATG (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -3.30%E -1.08%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.00%EV -8.19%E -4.05%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.53%EV -9.77%E -2.47%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-04 15:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -6.47%E -2.19%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.68%EV -7.28%E -3.57%K -7.00%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -6.34%E -1.55%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-04 17:45
1xBet🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 32.56%EV -9.00%E -3.14%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.36%EV -6.37%E -3.09%K -6.01%G +0.000%4.23I 23.64%NM 22.09%EV -3.37%E -0.798%K -1.04%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-04 19:03
Betway🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.87%EV -9.64%E -3.38%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.42%EV -9.10%E -4.55%K -9.10%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.71%EV -8.63%E -2.16%K -2.88%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-04 17:45
Codere (IT)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.62%EV -9.64%E -3.38%K -5.21%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 45.28%EV -9.55%E -4.80%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV -10.91%E -2.80%K -3.76%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-04 17:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.29%EV -11.22%E -4.01%K -6.23%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.66%EV -10.01%E -5.05%K -10.21%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.05%EV -6.34%E -1.55%K -2.05%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-04 17:45
Unibet (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.85%EV -11.22%E -4.01%K -6.23%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 45.28%EV -10.46%E -5.31%K -10.79%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.87%EV -10.91%E -2.80%K -3.76%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-04 18:50
Betclic (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.65%EV -11.22%E -4.01%K -6.23%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 45.21%EV -10.92%E -5.57%K -11.37%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 23.14%EV -12.51%E -3.27%K -4.42%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-04 17:46
Tipico (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.47%EV -12.81%E -4.66%K -7.32%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 46.27%EV -12.28%E -6.36%K -13.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.26%EV -4.06%E -0.967%K -1.27%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-04 19:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.03%EV -14.39%E -5.33%K -8.47%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 45.51%EV -13.64%E -7.18%K -15.16%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.46%EV -12.05%E -3.13%K -4.23%G +0.000%15.6%2026-10-04 17:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (9)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%5.1%2026-10-04 17:45
Bet Right🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.42%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%5.2%2026-10-04 18:55
Kalshi◎2.33I 42.92%NM 40.56%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.44%5.8%2026-10-04 19:00
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%7.2%2026-10-04 18:55
Bally Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.78%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.22%7.3%2026-10-04 14:59
betPARX🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.78%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.22%7.3%2026-10-04 15:00
BetRivers🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%8.0%2026-10-04 15:00
Smarkets◎2.16I 46.30%NM 42.71%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.29%8.4%2026-10-04 17:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.33%9.0%2026-10-04 18:55