The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Providence Bruins v Springfield Thunderbirds

Kickoff: 2026-04-12 19:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Providence Bruins (Local)

Prediction 50.54%1.98fair odd
EV -7.00%
Edge -3.80%
Kelly -8.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.84

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.93%50.80%50.54%51.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.721.781.791.8458.14%56.07%55.87%54.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Springfield Thunderbirds (Visit)

Prediction 27.60%3.62fair odd
EV +0.737%
Edge +0.202%
Kelly +0.278%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.31%27.35%27.60%29.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.413.403.6533.33%29.31%29.41%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.86%4.58fair odd
EV -0.987%
Edge -0.218%
Kelly -0.280%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.63%21.84%21.86%22.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.114.104.5326.32%24.31%24.39%22.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Providence Bruins (Local): 50.54%; Springfield Thunderbirds (Visit): 27.60%; Draw: 21.86%. For Springfield Thunderbirds (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.62. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.737%.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 51.89%EV -9.53%E -5.32%K -12.06%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV +0.737%E +0.202%K +0.278%G +0.002%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.66%EV -10.39%E -2.53%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-10 19:15
Casumo🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 51.89%EV -9.53%E -5.32%K -12.06%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV +0.737%E +0.202%K +0.278%G +0.002%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.66%EV -10.39%E -2.53%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-10 19:15
Grosvenor🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 51.89%EV -9.53%E -5.32%K -12.06%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV +0.737%E +0.202%K +0.278%G +0.002%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.66%EV -10.39%E -2.53%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-10 19:14
Unibet (NL)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 51.89%EV -9.53%E -5.32%K -12.06%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV +0.737%E +0.202%K +0.278%G +0.002%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.66%EV -10.39%E -2.53%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-10 19:14
PMU (FR)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 51.89%EV -9.53%E -5.32%K -12.06%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV +0.737%E +0.202%K +0.278%G +0.002%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.66%EV -10.39%E -2.53%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-10 19:14
ATG (SE)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 51.89%EV -9.53%E -5.32%K -12.06%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV +0.737%E +0.202%K +0.278%G +0.002%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.66%EV -10.39%E -2.53%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-10 19:14
Svenska Spel🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 51.89%EV -9.53%E -5.32%K -12.06%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV +0.737%E +0.202%K +0.278%G +0.002%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.66%EV -10.39%E -2.53%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-10 19:14
LeoVegas🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.94%EV -12.56%E -7.26%K -17.20%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.31%EV -2.02%E -0.570%K -0.793%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.75%EV -13.66%E -3.46%K -4.63%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-10 19:14
Unibet (UK)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.66%EV -7.00%E -3.80%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.41%EV -6.16%E -1.81%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.93%EV -7.11%E -1.67%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 04:29
Tipico (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 51.94%EV -13.06%E -7.60%K -18.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -6.16%E -1.81%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.79%EV -10.39%E -2.53%K -3.35%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-12 04:30
GTbets🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.27%EV -8.52%E -4.70%K -10.51%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.45%EV -6.71%E -1.99%K -2.82%G +0.000%4.36I 22.94%NM 21.28%EV -4.70%E -1.08%K -1.40%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-12 04:29
1xBet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.64%EV -8.52%E -4.70%K -10.51%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 27.73%EV -6.99%E -2.07%K -2.95%G +0.000%4.53I 22.08%NM 20.63%EV -0.987%E -0.218%K -0.280%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 19:04
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.44%EV -9.02%E -5.01%K -11.28%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -10.30%E -3.17%K -4.58%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -8.20%E -1.95%K -2.56%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-12 19:05
Codere (IT)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.18%EV -9.02%E -5.01%K -11.28%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -10.30%E -3.17%K -4.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.03%EV -10.39%E -2.53%K -3.35%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-12 04:30
Winamax (DE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.74%EV -8.01%E -4.40%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.20%EV -14.44%E -4.66%K -6.88%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.05%EV -6.01%E -1.40%K -1.82%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-12 19:05
Unibet (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 49.67%EV -11.55%E -6.60%K -15.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.04%EV -14.44%E -4.66%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.29%EV -14.76%E -3.78%K -5.09%G +0.000%15.0%2026-04-12 18:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 49.53%EV -12.56%E -7.26%K -17.20%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 27.91%EV -15.27%E -4.97%K -7.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.55%EV -16.94%E -4.46%K -6.05%G +0.000%16.7%2026-04-12 18:43
Winamax (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 48.93%EV -11.04%E -6.27%K -14.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.70%EV -17.20%E -5.73%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.37%EV -15.85%E -4.12%K -5.56%G +0.000%16.1%2026-04-12 19:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.52I 65.79%NM 64.65%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.35%1.8%2026-04-12 19:05
Bet Right🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.08%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.92%5.0%2026-04-12 19:00
theScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%5.4%2026-04-12 19:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%6.7%2026-04-12 04:30
William Hill🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%6.7%2026-04-11 19:55
betPARX🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%7.9%2026-04-10 19:14
Bally Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%7.9%2026-04-10 19:14
Smarkets◎1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%8.3%2026-04-12 07:15
BetRivers🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.91%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.09%8.7%2026-04-10 19:14
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%9.0%2026-04-12 16:00