The School of Odds
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Providence Bruins v Springfield Thunderbirds

Kickoff: 2026-03-15 19:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Providence Bruins (Local)

Prediction 56.12%1.78fair odd
EV -6.84%
Edge -4.12%
Kelly -10.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.83%56.44%56.12%58.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.621.631.6664.52%61.61%61.35%60.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Springfield Thunderbirds (Visit)

Prediction 22.66%4.41fair odd
EV -1.89%
Edge -0.437%
Kelly -0.568%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.34%22.37%22.66%23.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.654.034.104.3327.40%24.84%24.39%23.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.22%4.71fair odd
EV +0.791%
Edge +0.166%
Kelly +0.211%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 4.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.70%21.19%21.22%21.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.294.254.7525.64%23.32%23.53%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Providence Bruins (Local): 56.12%; Springfield Thunderbirds (Visit): 22.66%; Draw: 21.22%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.71. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.791%.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.76%EV -9.08%E -5.61%K -14.65%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.55%EV -5.97%E -1.44%K -1.90%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.70%EV +0.791%E +0.166%K +0.211%G +0.002%6.9%2026-03-15 19:00
GTbets🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.68%EV -10.76%E -6.77%K -18.24%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.55%EV -1.89%E -0.437%K -0.568%G +0.000%4.72I 21.19%NM 19.77%EV +0.154%E +0.033%K +0.041%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-15 04:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.26%EV -7.40%E -4.48%K -11.38%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -7.10%E -1.73%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.10%EV -6.64%E -1.51%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-15 07:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.20%EV -10.20%E -6.38%K -17.01%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.36%EV -12.77%E -3.32%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.44%EV -6.64%E -1.51%K -1.95%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-15 06:04
Tipico (DE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.82%EV -13.01%E -8.39%K -23.65%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.34%EV -4.84%E -1.15%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.84%EV -8.76%E -2.04%K -2.65%G +0.000%11.6%2026-03-15 10:10
Unibet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.70%EV -6.84%E -4.12%K -10.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.55%EV -7.10%E -1.73%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.75%EV -9.82%E -2.31%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-15 18:35
Grosvenor🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.70%EV -6.84%E -4.12%K -10.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.55%EV -7.10%E -1.73%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.75%EV -9.82%E -2.31%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-15 18:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.70%EV -6.84%E -4.12%K -10.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.55%EV -7.10%E -1.73%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.75%EV -9.82%E -2.31%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-15 18:35
Casumo🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.70%EV -6.84%E -4.12%K -10.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.55%EV -7.10%E -1.73%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.75%EV -9.82%E -2.31%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-15 18:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.70%EV -6.84%E -4.12%K -10.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.55%EV -7.10%E -1.73%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.75%EV -9.82%E -2.31%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-15 18:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.70%EV -6.84%E -4.12%K -10.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.55%EV -7.10%E -1.73%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.75%EV -9.82%E -2.31%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-15 18:35
Betway🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.99%EV -9.08%E -5.61%K -14.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.67%EV -9.37%E -2.34%K -3.12%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.34%EV -9.82%E -2.31%K -3.02%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-15 07:00
Codere (IT)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.68%EV -9.08%E -5.61%K -14.65%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.84%EV -10.50%E -2.66%K -3.56%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.48%EV -10.88%E -2.59%K -3.40%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-15 07:00
LeoVegas🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 54.93%EV -7.96%E -4.85%K -12.43%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV -11.63%E -2.98%K -4.01%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.97%EV -13.00%E -3.17%K -4.19%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-15 18:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 55.31%EV -12.45%E -7.98%K -22.23%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.64%EV -17.30%E -4.74%K -6.53%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.05%EV -13.00%E -3.17%K -4.19%G +0.000%15.9%2026-03-15 05:30
Betclic (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 54.83%EV -12.45%E -7.98%K -22.23%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 23.24%EV -16.62%E -4.52%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.93%EV -17.25%E -4.42%K -5.95%G +0.000%16.9%2026-03-15 18:38
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%5.0%2026-03-15 05:30
Bet Right🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%5.3%2026-03-15 14:25
Kalshi◎3.12I 32.05%NM 30.20%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.80%6.1%2026-03-15 18:50
Bally Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.39%7.2%2026-03-15 18:35
betPARX🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.39%7.2%2026-03-15 18:35
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%7.8%2026-03-15 05:30
BetRivers🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.99%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01%8.2%2026-03-15 07:00
Smarkets◎1.38I 72.46%NM 66.83%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.17%8.4%2026-03-15 07:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%8.5%2026-03-15 18:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.93%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.07%9.1%2026-03-15 18:55