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Providence Bruins v Rochester Americans

Kickoff: 2026-04-11 23:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Providence Bruins (Local)

Prediction 45.37%2.20fair odd
EV -3.83%
Edge -1.80%
Kelly -3.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.87%45.93%45.37%47.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.872.032.042.1253.48%49.19%48.90%47.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rochester Americans (Visit)

Prediction 31.95%3.13fair odd
EV -2.87%
Edge -0.943%
Kelly -1.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.78%31.71%31.95%32.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.842.883.0437.74%35.22%34.72%32.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.68%4.41fair odd
EV -3.37%
Edge -0.791%
Kelly -1.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.30%22.35%22.68%23.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.703.963.904.2627.03%25.23%25.64%23.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Providence Bruins (Local): 45.37%; Rochester Americans (Visit): 31.95%; Draw: 22.68%. For Rochester Americans (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.13. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.04, with an expected value of -2.87%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.87%EV -3.83%E -1.80%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.29%EV -7.98%E -2.77%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -11.54%E -2.96%K -3.98%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-11 09:00
Grosvenor🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.87%EV -3.83%E -1.80%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.29%EV -7.98%E -2.77%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -11.54%E -2.96%K -3.98%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-11 09:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.87%EV -3.83%E -1.80%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.29%EV -7.98%E -2.77%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -11.54%E -2.96%K -3.98%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-11 09:00
PMU (FR)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.87%EV -3.83%E -1.80%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.29%EV -7.98%E -2.77%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -11.54%E -2.96%K -3.98%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-11 09:00
Casumo🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.87%EV -3.83%E -1.80%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.29%EV -7.98%E -2.77%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -11.54%E -2.96%K -3.98%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-11 08:59
Svenska Spel🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.87%EV -3.83%E -1.80%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.29%EV -7.98%E -2.77%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -11.54%E -2.96%K -3.98%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-11 08:59
ATG (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.87%EV -3.83%E -1.80%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.29%EV -7.98%E -2.77%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -11.54%E -2.96%K -3.98%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-11 08:59
GTbets🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 45.08%EV -5.19%E -2.48%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 32.38%EV -7.02%E -2.41%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.18I 23.92%NM 22.54%EV -5.19%E -1.24%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-11 04:15
Unibet (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -7.00%E -3.42%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.03%EV -7.34%E -2.53%K -3.86%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.66%EV -7.00%E -1.71%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-11 20:59
LeoVegas🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 44.14%EV -7.45%E -3.65%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.16%EV -10.53%E -3.76%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.70%EV -13.81%E -3.63%K -4.93%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-11 09:00
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.42%EV -9.27%E -4.63%K -9.27%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.87%EV -8.94%E -3.14%K -4.83%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.71%EV -9.27%E -2.32%K -3.09%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-11 21:00
Codere (IT)🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 45.16%EV -9.72%E -4.89%K -9.82%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.09%EV -10.53%E -3.76%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.75%EV -10.40%E -2.63%K -3.53%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-11 21:04
1xBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.26%EV -10.18%E -5.14%K -10.38%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 30.78%EV -2.87%E -0.943%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.26I 23.47%NM 21.96%EV -3.37%E -0.791%K -1.03%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-11 23:04
Winamax (DE)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 45.39%EV -10.18%E -5.14%K -10.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.68%EV -12.13%E -4.41%K -6.93%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.92%EV -7.00%E -1.71%K -2.26%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-11 21:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 44.86%EV -11.99%E -6.18%K -12.76%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.23%EV -13.73%E -5.09%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.90%EV -13.81%E -3.63%K -4.93%G +0.000%14.9%2026-04-11 22:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 44.70%EV -13.35%E -6.99%K -14.67%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.22%EV -15.33%E -5.78%K -9.29%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.08%EV -16.07%E -4.34%K -5.95%G +0.000%17.1%2026-04-11 22:39
Winamax (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 45.50%EV -13.81%E -7.27%K -15.34%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.62%EV -15.33%E -5.78%K -9.29%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.88%EV -10.40%E -2.63%K -3.53%G +0.000%15.7%2026-04-11 23:04
Tipico (DE)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 47.85%EV -15.17%E -8.11%K -17.43%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.85%EV -7.34%E -2.53%K -3.86%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.30%EV -4.73%E -1.13%K -1.48%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-11 22:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%4.1%2026-04-11 23:05
Bet Right🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.22%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.78%5.3%2026-04-11 21:10
theScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%5.3%2026-04-11 11:44
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%7.2%2026-04-11 21:04
Betr (AU)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%7.6%2026-04-11 20:59
betPARX🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.23%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.77%7.8%2026-04-11 09:00
Bally Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.23%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.77%7.8%2026-04-11 08:59
Smarkets◎1.63I 61.35%NM 56.76%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.24%8.1%2026-04-11 21:00
BetRivers🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.38%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.62%8.1%2026-04-11 09:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.33%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%9.0%2026-04-11 21:10