The School of Odds
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Providence Bruins v Hershey Bears

Kickoff: 2026-03-08 19:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Providence Bruins (Local)

Prediction 48.08%2.08fair odd
EV -2.87%
Edge -1.42%
Kelly -2.81%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.80%48.31%48.08%49.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.941.952.0255.56%51.66%51.28%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hershey Bears (Visit)

Prediction 29.00%3.45fair odd
EV -7.20%
Edge -2.25%
Kelly -3.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.95%28.87%29.00%30.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.073.103.2035.09%32.54%32.26%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.92%4.36fair odd
EV -4.44%
Edge -1.07%
Kelly -1.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.36%22.82%22.92%24.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.653.873.804.1727.40%25.81%26.32%23.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Providence Bruins (Local): 48.08%; Hershey Bears (Visit): 29.00%; Draw: 22.92%. For Providence Bruins (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.08. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.02, with an expected value of -2.87%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.80%EV -2.87%E -1.42%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.85%EV -10.10%E -3.26%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -12.92%E -3.40%K -4.62%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-08 07:15
Grosvenor🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.80%EV -2.87%E -1.42%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.85%EV -10.10%E -3.26%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -12.92%E -3.40%K -4.62%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-08 07:14
Casumo🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.80%EV -2.87%E -1.42%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.85%EV -10.10%E -3.26%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -12.92%E -3.40%K -4.62%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-08 07:14
Unibet (NL)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.80%EV -2.87%E -1.42%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.85%EV -10.10%E -3.26%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -12.92%E -3.40%K -4.62%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-08 07:14
Svenska Spel🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.80%EV -2.87%E -1.42%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.85%EV -10.10%E -3.26%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -12.92%E -3.40%K -4.62%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-08 07:24
ATG (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.80%EV -2.87%E -1.42%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.85%EV -10.10%E -3.26%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -12.92%E -3.40%K -4.62%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-08 07:24
GTbets🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.89%EV -5.27%E -2.68%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -7.20%E -2.25%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.17I 23.98%NM 22.63%EV -4.44%E -1.07%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-08 18:59
Unibet (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.96%EV -6.23%E -3.20%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.23%EV -7.20%E -2.25%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -6.05%E -1.48%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-08 17:40
LeoVegas🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.93%EV -6.23%E -3.20%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.86%EV -13.00%E -4.33%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -15.21%E -4.11%K -5.63%G +0.000%11.6%2026-03-08 07:14
1xBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.86%EV -7.68%E -4.00%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.45%EV -9.52%E -3.05%K -4.49%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.69%EV -7.19%E -1.78%K -2.36%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-08 18:45
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -8.16%E -4.27%K -8.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -7.20%E -2.25%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -8.34%E -2.08%K -2.78%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-08 17:39
Winamax (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.43%EV -8.64%E -4.55%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.04%EV -13.00%E -4.33%K -6.50%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.53%EV -8.34%E -2.08%K -2.78%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-08 17:39
Codere (IT)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.39%EV -8.64%E -4.55%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.52%EV -11.55%E -3.79%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.09%EV -10.63%E -2.73%K -3.67%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-08 17:39
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.01%EV -11.04%E -5.97%K -12.99%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.48%EV -14.45%E -4.90%K -7.41%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.51%EV -15.21%E -4.11%K -5.63%G +0.000%15.0%2026-03-08 18:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 47.22%EV -12.49%E -6.86%K -15.23%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.16%EV -17.35%E -6.09%K -9.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.62%EV -12.92%E -3.40%K -4.62%G +0.000%16.3%2026-03-08 17:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 46.94%EV -12.49%E -6.86%K -15.23%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.66%EV -16.48%E -5.72%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.40%EV -16.36%E -4.48%K -6.17%G +0.000%17.1%2026-03-08 18:38
Tipico (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.69%EV -13.45%E -7.47%K -16.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -7.20%E -2.25%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -8.34%E -2.08%K -2.78%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-08 17:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61%1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39%1.2%2026-03-08 18:55
theScore Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%4.7%2026-03-08 17:39
Bet Right🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.80%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.20%5.4%2026-03-08 18:59
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%7.2%2026-03-08 07:54
Betr (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%7.6%2026-03-08 07:24
Smarkets◎1.56I 64.10%NM 59.16%2.26I 44.25%NM 40.84%8.4%2026-03-08 17:39
BetRivers🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.68%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.32%8.5%2026-03-08 07:15
Bally Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.68%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.32%8.5%2026-03-08 07:24
betPARX🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.68%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.32%8.5%2026-03-08 07:24
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%8.8%2026-03-08 17:25