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Providence Bruins v Bridgeport Islanders

Kickoff: 2026-03-01 20:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Providence Bruins (Local)

Prediction 55.86%1.79fair odd
EV -6.16%
Edge -3.67%
Kelly -9.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.33%55.75%55.86%56.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.651.681.6863.69%60.75%59.52%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bridgeport Islanders (Visit)

Prediction 24.16%4.14fair odd
EV -5.78%
Edge -1.48%
Kelly -1.99%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.67%24.19%24.16%25.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.773.823.9029.41%26.55%26.18%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.98%5.00fair odd
EV -5.07%
Edge -1.07%
Kelly -1.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.54%20.06%19.98%21.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.414.404.7524.39%22.69%22.73%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Providence Bruins (Local): 55.86%; Bridgeport Islanders (Visit): 24.16%; Draw: 19.98%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.00. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.75, with an expected value of -5.07%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (UK)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.04%EV -6.16%E -3.67%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -5.78%E -1.48%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.82%EV -5.07%E -1.07%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-01 06:09
Unibet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.17%EV -6.16%E -3.67%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -5.78%E -1.48%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV -12.07%E -2.74%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-01 12:59
Grosvenor🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.17%EV -6.16%E -3.67%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -5.78%E -1.48%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV -12.07%E -2.74%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-01 12:59
Casumo🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.17%EV -6.16%E -3.67%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -5.78%E -1.48%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV -12.07%E -2.74%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-01 12:59
Unibet (NL)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.17%EV -6.16%E -3.67%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -5.78%E -1.48%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV -12.07%E -2.74%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-01 12:59
Svenska Spel🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.17%EV -6.16%E -3.67%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -5.78%E -1.48%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV -12.07%E -2.74%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-01 12:59
ATG (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.17%EV -6.16%E -3.67%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -5.78%E -1.48%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV -12.07%E -2.74%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-01 12:59
1xBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.63%EV -6.16%E -3.67%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.03%EV -7.71%E -2.02%K -2.74%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.34%EV -14.07%E -3.27%K -4.26%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-01 19:15
Codere (IT)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.22%EV -8.95%E -5.49%K -14.21%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.33%EV -10.61%E -2.87%K -3.93%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.46%EV -12.07%E -2.74%K -3.55%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-01 06:09
LeoVegas🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.17%EV -8.95%E -5.49%K -14.21%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.67%EV -8.20%E -2.16%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.16%EV -15.07%E -3.55%K -4.64%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-01 12:59
Betway🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.80%EV -9.51%E -5.87%K -15.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.11%EV -9.40%E -2.51%K -3.42%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.09%EV -10.07%E -2.24%K -2.88%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-01 06:09
Winamax (DE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.49%EV -9.51%E -5.87%K -15.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -13.03%E -3.62%K -5.01%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.54%EV -8.07%E -1.75%K -2.24%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-01 06:09
Tipico (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.93%EV -10.63%E -6.64%K -17.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.19%EV -10.61%E -2.87%K -3.93%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.89%EV -10.07%E -2.24%K -2.88%G +0.000%11.7%2026-03-01 06:10
Winamax (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 54.58%EV -11.75%E -7.43%K -20.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.36%EV -17.86%E -5.25%K -7.44%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.06%EV -14.07%E -3.27%K -4.26%G +0.000%16.0%2026-03-01 06:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 54.33%EV -12.30%E -7.84%K -21.59%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 24.87%EV -17.14%E -5.00%K -7.05%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 20.80%EV -18.06%E -4.41%K -5.83%G +0.000%17.2%2026-03-01 19:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.43I 69.93%NM 67.94%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.06%2.9%2026-03-01 20:00
Bet Right🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%5.1%2026-03-01 19:24
theScore Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%5.8%2026-03-01 06:09
Bovada🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%6.3%2026-03-01 19:58
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%7.8%2026-03-01 07:59
Betr (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%7.8%2026-03-01 06:09
BetRivers🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.99%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01%8.2%2026-03-01 06:10
betPARX🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.99%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01%8.2%2026-03-01 06:10
Bally Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.99%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01%8.2%2026-03-01 06:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 66.75%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%9.4%2026-03-01 06:25