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Ontario Reign v Tucson Roadrunners

Kickoff: 2026-03-05 03:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ontario Reign (Local)

Prediction 51.19%1.95fair odd
EV -3.76%
Edge -2.00%
Kelly -4.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.16%51.69%51.19%53.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.801.821.8859.88%55.52%54.95%53.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tucson Roadrunners (Visit)

Prediction 27.50%3.64fair odd
EV -4.83%
Edge -1.40%
Kelly -1.97%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.53%27.45%27.50%29.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.213.153.4632.79%31.20%31.75%28.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.30%4.69fair odd
EV -2.00%
Edge -0.434%
Kelly -0.555%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.42%20.87%21.30%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.934.274.304.6025.45%23.40%23.26%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ontario Reign (Local): 51.19%; Tucson Roadrunners (Visit): 27.50%; Draw: 21.30%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.69. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.60, with an expected value of -2.00%; they did not produce positive expected value.

11 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.16%EV -3.76%E -2.00%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -13.36%E -4.24%K -6.21%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.49%EV -8.39%E -1.95%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-03 04:50
Grosvenor🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.16%EV -3.76%E -2.00%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -13.36%E -4.24%K -6.21%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.49%EV -8.39%E -1.95%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-03 04:50
Casumo🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.16%EV -3.76%E -2.00%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -13.36%E -4.24%K -6.21%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.49%EV -8.39%E -1.95%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-03 04:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.16%EV -3.76%E -2.00%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -13.36%E -4.24%K -6.21%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.49%EV -8.39%E -1.95%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-03 04:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.16%EV -3.76%E -2.00%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -13.36%E -4.24%K -6.21%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.49%EV -8.39%E -1.95%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-03 05:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.16%EV -3.76%E -2.00%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -13.36%E -4.24%K -6.21%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.49%EV -8.39%E -1.95%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-03 05:00
GTbets🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.61%EV -6.32%E -3.45%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 27.54%EV -5.66%E -1.65%K -2.33%G +0.000%4.53I 22.08%NM 20.85%EV -3.49%E -0.770%K -0.988%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-05 02:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.17%EV -6.32%E -3.45%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -6.48%E -1.91%K -2.70%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28%EV -6.26%E -1.42%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-04 20:45
LeoVegas🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.26%EV -6.83%E -3.75%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.39%EV -16.11%E -5.28%K -7.86%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.35%EV -10.52%E -2.50%K -3.29%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-03 04:50
1xBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.87%EV -9.39%E -5.31%K -12.20%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 26.53%EV -4.83%E -1.40%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.60%EV -9.45%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-05 01:10
Betway🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.21%EV -9.39%E -5.31%K -12.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -9.23%E -2.80%K -4.02%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.33%EV -9.45%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-04 20:45
Codere (IT)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.86%EV -9.39%E -5.31%K -12.20%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.70%EV -10.61%E -3.26%K -4.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.44%EV -10.52%E -2.50%K -3.29%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-04 20:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.28%EV -9.90%E -5.63%K -13.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.21%EV -11.99%E -3.75%K -5.45%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -6.26%E -1.42%K -1.84%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-04 20:45
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 50.38%EV -11.95%E -6.95%K -16.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.95%EV -14.74%E -4.75%K -7.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.66%EV -14.78%E -3.70%K -4.93%G +0.000%15.4%2026-03-05 02:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 50.71%EV -12.98%E -7.63%K -18.54%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.26%EV -16.11%E -5.28%K -7.86%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.03%EV -12.65%E -3.09%K -4.08%G +0.000%16.0%2026-03-04 20:45
Betclic (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 50.25%EV -12.98%E -7.63%K -18.54%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.01%EV -16.11%E -5.28%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 21.74%EV -16.27%E -4.14%K -5.55%G +0.000%17.1%2026-03-05 02:34
Tipico (DE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.50%EV -14.51%E -8.69%K -21.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -9.23%E -2.80%K -4.02%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.42%EV -2.00%E -0.434%K -0.555%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-04 20:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (11)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.52I 65.79%NM 64.65%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.35%1.8%2026-03-04 20:55
Bet Right🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.08%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.92%5.0%2026-03-05 02:50
theScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%5.4%2026-03-04 20:45
Bovada🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%6.2%2026-03-05 02:19
William Hill🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%6.7%2026-03-05 02:50
Betr (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%6.7%2026-03-04 20:45
BetRivers🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%7.9%2026-03-03 04:50
betPARX🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%7.9%2026-03-03 05:00
Bally Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%7.9%2026-03-03 05:00
Smarkets◎1.49I 67.11%NM 61.89%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.11%8.4%2026-03-04 20:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.86%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%9.2%2026-03-04 20:49