The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Ontario Reign v San Diego Gulls

Kickoff: 2026-04-18 02:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ontario Reign (Local)

Prediction 46.87%2.13fair odd
EV -2.51%
Edge -1.21%
Kelly -2.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.64%47.12%46.87%48.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.991.982.0855.56%50.28%50.51%48.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

San Diego Gulls (Visit)

Prediction 30.62%3.27fair odd
EV -4.46%
Edge -1.43%
Kelly -2.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.82%30.48%30.62%31.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.942.953.1237.74%34.03%33.90%32.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.51%4.44fair odd
EV -3.65%
Edge -0.853%
Kelly -1.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.57%22.39%22.51%23.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.803.983.904.2826.32%25.16%25.64%23.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ontario Reign (Local): 46.87%; San Diego Gulls (Visit): 30.62%; Draw: 22.51%. For Ontario Reign (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.13. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.08, with an expected value of -2.51%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.67%EV -2.51%E -1.21%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.50%EV -9.67%E -3.28%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -12.21%E -3.13%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-16 02:09
Grosvenor🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.67%EV -2.51%E -1.21%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.50%EV -9.67%E -3.28%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -12.21%E -3.13%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-16 02:09
PMU (FR)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.67%EV -2.51%E -1.21%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.50%EV -9.67%E -3.28%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -12.21%E -3.13%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-16 02:09
Casumo🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.67%EV -2.51%E -1.21%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.50%EV -9.67%E -3.28%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -12.21%E -3.13%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-16 02:09
Unibet (NL)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.67%EV -2.51%E -1.21%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.50%EV -9.67%E -3.28%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -12.21%E -3.13%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-16 02:09
Svenska Spel🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.67%EV -2.51%E -1.21%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.50%EV -9.67%E -3.28%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -12.21%E -3.13%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-16 02:09
ATG (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.67%EV -2.51%E -1.21%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.50%EV -9.67%E -3.28%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -12.21%E -3.13%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-16 02:08
LeoVegas🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.64%EV -5.33%E -2.64%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.64%EV -12.73%E -4.47%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.73%EV -14.46%E -3.80%K -5.16%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-16 02:09
GTbets🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.68%EV -7.20%E -3.64%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.26%EV -4.46%E -1.43%K -2.11%G +0.000%4.28I 23.36%NM 22.06%EV -3.65%E -0.853%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-16 17:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.79%EV -7.67%E -3.89%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.73%EV -8.14%E -2.71%K -4.07%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -7.70%E -1.88%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-16 14:54
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -8.61%E -4.41%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -8.14%E -2.71%K -4.07%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -9.95%E -2.49%K -3.32%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-17 06:04
1xBet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.36%EV -9.08%E -4.68%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 30.23%EV -6.91%E -2.27%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%EV -7.70%E -1.88%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-17 17:09
Codere (IT)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.55%EV -9.54%E -4.95%K -10.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -11.20%E -3.86%K -5.89%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -9.95%E -2.49%K -3.32%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-16 06:34
Winamax (DE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.19%EV -10.01%E -5.22%K -10.88%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.24%EV -11.20%E -3.86%K -5.89%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.57%EV -5.45%E -1.30%K -1.70%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-16 06:34
Unibet (FR)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 46.56%EV -11.42%E -6.04%K -12.83%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.88%EV -12.73%E -4.47%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.56%EV -12.21%E -3.13%K -4.21%G +0.000%13.6%2026-04-17 23:04
Tipico (DE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.36%EV -13.29%E -7.19%K -15.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -8.14%E -2.71%K -4.07%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.82%EV -7.70%E -1.88%K -2.48%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-16 16:59
Winamax (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 46.45%EV -15.64%E -8.69%K -19.55%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 31.55%EV -18.86%E -7.12%K -11.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.00%EV -14.46%E -3.80%K -5.16%G +0.000%19.6%2026-04-16 06:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.64I 60.98%NM 59.20%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.80%3.0%2026-04-17 22:40
Bet Right🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%5.2%2026-04-17 22:35
theScore Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%6.2%2026-04-16 06:09
William Hill🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%6.9%2026-04-16 08:15
Bally Bet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.73%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.27%7.5%2026-04-16 02:09
betPARX🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.73%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.27%7.5%2026-04-16 02:09
BetRivers🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.76%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.24%8.1%2026-04-16 02:09
Betr (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%8.1%2026-04-17 02:09
Smarkets◎1.59I 62.89%NM 58.05%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.95%8.3%2026-04-17 14:04
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.21%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%9.0%2026-04-17 17:44