The School of Odds
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Ontario Reign v Henderson Silver Knights

Kickoff: 2026-10-18 01:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ontario Reign (Local)

Prediction 38.70%2.58fair odd
EV -4.03%
Edge -1.62%
Kelly -2.72%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.09%38.80%38.70%40.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.372.432.4845.45%42.15%41.15%40.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Henderson Silver Knights (Visit)

Prediction 38.71%2.58fair odd
EV -7.11%
Edge -2.96%
Kelly -5.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.37%38.39%38.71%40.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.322.352.4045.45%43.04%42.55%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.60%4.43fair odd
EV -4.19%
Edge -0.988%
Kelly -1.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.87%22.82%22.60%24.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.703.954.004.2427.03%25.34%25.00%23.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ontario Reign (Local): 38.70%; Henderson Silver Knights (Visit): 38.71%; Draw: 22.60%. For Ontario Reign (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.58. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.48, with an expected value of -4.03%; they did not produce positive expected value.

9 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.75%EV -4.03%E -1.62%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.18%EV -9.82%E -4.21%K -7.38%G +0.000%4.24I 23.58%NM 22.08%EV -4.19%E -0.988%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-18 00:59
Betway🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.09%EV -5.19%E -2.12%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.67%EV -9.04%E -3.85%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.23%EV -15.26%E -4.07%K -5.55%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-18 01:00
Unibet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.86%EV -5.96%E -2.45%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.15%EV -9.04%E -3.85%K -6.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -9.61%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-16 21:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.86%EV -5.96%E -2.45%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.15%EV -9.04%E -3.85%K -6.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -9.61%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-16 21:54
Grosvenor🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.86%EV -5.96%E -2.45%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.15%EV -9.04%E -3.85%K -6.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -9.61%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-16 21:55
Casumo🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.86%EV -5.96%E -2.45%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.15%EV -9.04%E -3.85%K -6.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -9.61%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-16 21:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.86%EV -5.96%E -2.45%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.15%EV -9.04%E -3.85%K -6.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -9.61%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-16 21:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.86%EV -5.96%E -2.45%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.15%EV -9.04%E -3.85%K -6.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -9.61%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-16 21:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.68%EV -7.13%E -2.97%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.68%EV -7.11%E -2.96%K -5.08%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -7.35%E -1.79%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-17 19:15
Winamax (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.61%EV -7.13%E -2.97%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.25%EV -10.98%E -4.77%K -8.44%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.14%EV -11.87%E -3.04%K -4.09%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-18 01:00
Codere (IT)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.66%EV -9.83%E -4.22%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.82%EV -10.20%E -4.40%K -7.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.52%EV -9.61%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-17 19:15
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.49%EV -10.99%E -4.78%K -8.46%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.20%EV -14.85%E -6.75%K -12.37%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.31%EV -16.39%E -4.43%K -6.07%G +0.000%16.0%2026-10-18 01:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.34%EV -12.93%E -5.75%K -10.34%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.34%EV -12.91%E -5.74%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.32%EV -16.39%E -4.43%K -6.07%G +0.000%15.9%2026-10-18 01:03
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.76%EV -14.86%E -6.76%K -12.39%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.37%EV -7.11%E -2.96%K -5.08%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.87%EV -7.35%E -1.79%K -2.37%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-17 21:35
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 38.54%EV -14.86%E -6.76%K -12.39%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 38.54%EV -14.85%E -6.75%K -12.37%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 22.92%EV -16.39%E -4.43%K -6.07%G +0.000%17.9%2026-10-18 00:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (9)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%4.8%2026-10-18 01:00
Kalshi◎1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%5.1%2026-10-18 01:00
Bet Right🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%5.3%2026-10-17 21:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.66%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.34%7.0%2026-10-17 21:35
betPARX🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.60%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.40%7.2%2026-10-16 21:54
Bally Bet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.60%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.40%7.2%2026-10-16 21:55
Smarkets◎1.85I 54.05%NM 49.86%1.84I 54.35%NM 50.14%8.4%2026-10-18 00:55
BetRivers🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.73%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%8.7%2026-10-16 21:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.23%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.77%9.1%2026-10-17 23:15