The School of Odds
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Ontario Reign v Coachella Valley Firebirds

Kickoff: 2026-05-02 02:20 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ontario Reign (Local)

Prediction 43.18%2.32fair odd
EV -7.60%
Edge -3.55%
Kelly -6.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.15%43.18%43.18%45.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.922.052.082.1452.08%48.68%48.08%46.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Coachella Valley Firebirds (Visit)

Prediction 34.22%2.92fair odd
EV -2.47%
Edge -0.868%
Kelly -1.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.99%34.22%34.22%34.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.772.792.8538.46%36.05%35.84%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.60%4.42fair odd
EV -3.04%
Edge -0.707%
Kelly -0.923%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.79%22.60%22.60%23.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.044.104.2927.03%24.76%24.39%23.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ontario Reign (Local): 43.18%; Coachella Valley Firebirds (Visit): 34.22%; Draw: 22.60%. For Coachella Valley Firebirds (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.92. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.85, with an expected value of -2.47%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.88%EV -7.60%E -3.55%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 33.66%EV -4.53%E -1.62%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.18I 23.92%NM 22.46%EV -5.52%E -1.32%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-01 22:24
Unibet (UK)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.21%EV -7.60%E -3.55%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -7.61%E -2.82%K -4.47%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.55%EV -7.33%E -1.79%K -2.36%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-02 02:04
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -9.33%E -4.44%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.19%EV -9.32%E -3.52%K -5.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -9.59%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-02 02:05
1xBet🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 44.72%EV -9.76%E -4.67%K -8.95%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 33.50%EV -4.53%E -1.62%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.29I 23.31%NM 21.79%EV -3.04%E -0.707%K -0.923%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-02 01:55
Unibet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.70%EV -10.19%E -4.90%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -2.47%E -0.868%K -1.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.68%EV -7.33%E -1.79%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-01 20:30
PMU (FR)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.70%EV -10.19%E -4.90%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -2.47%E -0.868%K -1.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.68%EV -7.33%E -1.79%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-01 20:30
Casumo🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.70%EV -10.19%E -4.90%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -2.47%E -0.868%K -1.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.68%EV -7.33%E -1.79%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-01 20:30
Grosvenor🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.70%EV -10.19%E -4.90%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -2.47%E -0.868%K -1.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.68%EV -7.33%E -1.79%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-01 20:29
Unibet (NL)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.70%EV -10.19%E -4.90%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -2.47%E -0.868%K -1.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.68%EV -7.33%E -1.79%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-01 20:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.70%EV -10.19%E -4.90%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -2.47%E -0.868%K -1.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.68%EV -7.33%E -1.79%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-01 20:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.70%EV -10.19%E -4.90%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -2.47%E -0.868%K -1.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.68%EV -7.33%E -1.79%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-01 20:30
LeoVegas🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.65%EV -12.78%E -6.33%K -12.53%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.80%EV -5.90%E -2.14%K -3.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.55%EV -9.59%E -2.40%K -3.20%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-01 20:28
Winamax (DE)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 45.39%EV -14.51%E -7.33%K -14.80%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.68%EV -5.90%E -2.14%K -3.37%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.92%EV -7.33%E -1.79%K -2.36%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-02 02:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 43.93%EV -14.94%E -7.58%K -15.40%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.29%EV -11.03%E -4.24%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.78%EV -14.11%E -3.71%K -5.04%G +0.000%15.5%2026-05-02 01:49
Betclic (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 44.46%EV -15.80%E -8.10%K -16.63%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.11%EV -7.61%E -2.82%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.43%EV -16.37%E -4.42%K -6.06%G +0.000%15.3%2026-05-02 02:03
Winamax (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 44.98%EV -17.10%E -8.91%K -18.59%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.99%EV -7.61%E -2.82%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.03%EV -15.24%E -4.06%K -5.54%G +0.000%15.8%2026-05-02 02:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.67I 59.88%NM 58.25%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.75%2.8%2026-05-02 02:05
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%5.1%2026-05-02 02:04
Bet Right🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%5.4%2026-05-01 23:19
betPARX🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.11%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.89%7.4%2026-05-01 20:29
Bally Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.11%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.89%7.4%2026-05-01 20:30
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%7.5%2026-05-01 21:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.85%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.15%7.9%2026-05-01 19:15
BetRivers🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.14%2.16I 46.30%NM 42.86%8.0%2026-05-01 20:29
Smarkets◎1.66I 60.24%NM 55.61%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.39%8.3%2026-05-01 20:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.30%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.70%9.0%2026-05-01 20:30