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Ontario Reign v Calgary Wranglers

Kickoff: 2026-10-21 02:07 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ontario Reign (Local)

Prediction 35.31%2.83fair odd
EV -6.44%
Edge -2.43%
Kelly -3.90%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.83%35.02%35.31%35.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.592.632.6541.67%38.63%38.02%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Calgary Wranglers (Visit)

Prediction 43.11%2.32fair odd
EV -6.01%
Edge -2.76%
Kelly -5.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.38%43.37%43.11%44.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.072.072.1850.00%48.32%48.31%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.58%4.63fair odd
EV -2.90%
Edge -0.644%
Kelly -0.828%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.53%21.61%21.58%22.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.274.354.5026.32%23.40%22.99%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ontario Reign (Local): 35.31%; Calgary Wranglers (Visit): 43.11%; Draw: 21.58%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.63. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.50, with an expected value of -2.90%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.85%EV -6.44%E -2.43%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.62%EV -10.75%E -5.19%K -10.05%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -2.90%E -0.644%K -0.828%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-20 04:20
Casumo🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.85%EV -6.44%E -2.43%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.62%EV -10.75%E -5.19%K -10.05%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -2.90%E -0.644%K -0.828%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-20 04:19
Unibet (NL)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.85%EV -6.44%E -2.43%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.62%EV -10.75%E -5.19%K -10.05%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -2.90%E -0.644%K -0.828%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-20 04:19
Grosvenor🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.85%EV -6.44%E -2.43%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.62%EV -10.75%E -5.19%K -10.05%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -2.90%E -0.644%K -0.828%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-20 04:19
ATG (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.85%EV -6.44%E -2.43%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.62%EV -10.75%E -5.19%K -10.05%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -2.90%E -0.644%K -0.828%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-20 04:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.85%EV -6.44%E -2.43%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.62%EV -10.75%E -5.19%K -10.05%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -2.90%E -0.644%K -0.828%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-20 04:20
Tipico (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.83%EV -6.44%E -2.43%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.82%EV -13.77%E -6.89%K -13.77%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.35%EV -9.37%E -2.23%K -2.93%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-21 01:50
1xBet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.50%EV -7.14%E -2.72%K -4.38%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.03%EV -6.44%E -2.97%K -5.50%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.47%EV -6.13%E -1.41%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-21 01:58
Unibet (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.75%EV -8.20%E -3.15%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.64%EV -6.01%E -2.76%K -5.09%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.62%EV -7.21%E -1.68%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-20 16:40
Betway🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.09%EV -8.20%E -3.15%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.44%EV -9.46%E -4.50%K -8.60%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.47%EV -8.29%E -1.95%K -2.55%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-21 02:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.42%EV -9.97%E -3.91%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.06%EV -11.61%E -5.67%K -11.06%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.53%EV -5.05%E -1.15%K -1.49%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-21 02:00
Codere (IT)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.40%EV -9.97%E -3.91%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.58%EV -8.60%E -4.05%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.02%EV -11.53%E -2.81%K -3.72%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-20 16:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.39%EV -11.73%E -4.69%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 42.99%EV -13.77%E -6.89%K -13.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.62%EV -18.00%E -4.74%K -6.43%G +0.000%16.3%2026-10-21 02:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.05%EV -13.50%E -5.51%K -9.31%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 42.93%EV -13.77%E -6.89%K -13.77%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.02%EV -15.84%E -4.06%K -5.46%G +0.000%16.5%2026-10-21 02:05
Unibet (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 35.32%EV -15.26%E -6.36%K -10.90%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 42.38%EV -13.77%E -6.89%K -13.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.30%EV -18.00%E -4.74%K -6.43%G +0.000%18.0%2026-10-21 01:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%5.1%2026-10-21 02:00
Bet Right🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%5.3%2026-10-20 16:45
GTbets🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.98%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.02%6.3%2026-10-21 02:05
betPARX🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.21%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%7.4%2026-10-20 04:20
Bally Bet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.21%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%7.4%2026-10-20 04:20
Betr (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%7.5%2026-10-20 16:40
Smarkets◎2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%8.1%2026-10-20 16:40
Kalshi◎1.96I 51.02%NM 47.17%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.83%8.2%2026-10-21 02:05
BetRivers🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.04%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.96%8.3%2026-10-20 04:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%8.8%2026-10-20 17:45