The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Ontario Reign v Bakersfield Condors

Kickoff: 2026-04-05 01:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ontario Reign (Local)

Prediction 43.96%2.27fair odd
EV -1.53%
Edge -0.683%
Kelly -1.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.40%44.20%43.96%45.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.052.062.2451.28%48.69%48.54%44.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bakersfield Condors (Visit)

Prediction 33.33%3.00fair odd
EV -1.68%
Edge -0.568%
Kelly -0.859%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.55%33.18%33.33%35.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.792.812.9540.82%35.88%35.52%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.71%4.40fair odd
EV -3.26%
Edge -0.765%
Kelly -0.999%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.44%22.62%22.71%23.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.004.004.2627.03%24.97%25.00%23.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ontario Reign (Local): 43.96%; Bakersfield Condors (Visit): 33.33%; Draw: 22.71%. For Ontario Reign (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.27. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.24, with an expected value of -1.53%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.40%EV -1.53%E -0.683%K -1.23%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 35.31%EV -10.34%E -3.84%K -6.12%G +0.000%4.26I 23.47%NM 22.29%EV -3.26%E -0.765%K -0.999%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-04 07:10
Unibet (UK)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.97%EV -6.80%E -3.21%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.29%EV -6.67%E -2.38%K -3.71%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -6.89%E -1.68%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-04 21:19
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -7.68%E -3.66%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.19%EV -11.67%E -4.41%K -7.08%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -9.16%E -2.29%K -3.05%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-05 00:59
1xBet🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 44.79%EV -8.12%E -3.89%K -7.45%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 33.08%EV -5.67%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%4.23I 23.64%NM 22.13%EV -3.94%E -0.931%K -1.22%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-05 00:59
Unibet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.18%EV -9.44%E -4.58%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -1.68%E -0.568%K -0.859%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.27%EV -9.16%E -2.29%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-03 01:05
Casumo🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.18%EV -9.44%E -4.58%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -1.68%E -0.568%K -0.859%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.27%EV -9.16%E -2.29%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-03 01:09
PMU (FR)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.18%EV -9.44%E -4.58%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -1.68%E -0.568%K -0.859%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.27%EV -9.16%E -2.29%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-03 01:10
Unibet (NL)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.18%EV -9.44%E -4.58%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -1.68%E -0.568%K -0.859%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.27%EV -9.16%E -2.29%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-03 01:10
Grosvenor🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.18%EV -9.44%E -4.58%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -1.68%E -0.568%K -0.859%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.27%EV -9.16%E -2.29%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-03 01:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.18%EV -9.44%E -4.58%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -1.68%E -0.568%K -0.859%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.27%EV -9.16%E -2.29%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-03 01:09
ATG (SE)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.18%EV -9.44%E -4.58%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -1.68%E -0.568%K -0.859%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.27%EV -9.16%E -2.29%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-03 01:09
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.93%EV -9.88%E -4.82%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.63%EV -13.34%E -5.13%K -8.34%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.44%EV -4.62%E -1.10%K -1.44%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-05 00:59
Codere (IT)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.89%EV -9.88%E -4.82%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.33%EV -10.01%E -3.71%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.78%EV -10.30%E -2.61%K -3.49%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-04 21:19
LeoVegas🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.16%EV -12.08%E -6.04%K -12.08%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.69%EV -5.01%E -1.76%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.16%EV -11.43%E -2.93%K -3.94%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-03 01:10
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.05%EV -12.08%E -6.04%K -12.08%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.15%EV -18.34%E -7.49%K -12.65%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.80%EV -10.30%E -2.61%K -3.49%G +0.000%16.1%2026-04-05 00:59
Unibet (FR)🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 43.69%EV -12.52%E -6.29%K -12.65%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.44%EV -13.34%E -5.13%K -8.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.88%EV -13.70%E -3.61%K -4.89%G +0.000%15.0%2026-04-05 00:49
Betclic (FR)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 43.51%EV -13.84%E -7.06%K -14.42%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 33.44%EV -15.01%E -5.89%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.05%EV -15.97%E -4.32%K -5.92%G +0.000%17.3%2026-04-05 00:33
Tipico (DE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.79%EV -14.28%E -7.32%K -15.03%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.89%EV -6.67%E -2.38%K -3.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.32%EV -9.16%E -2.29%K -3.05%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-04 21:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.75I 57.14%NM 55.92%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.08%2.2%2026-04-05 01:00
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%5.1%2026-04-05 01:00
Bet Right🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%5.3%2026-04-04 15:55
Bally Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.11%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.89%7.4%2026-04-03 01:10
betPARX🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.11%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.89%7.4%2026-04-03 01:10
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%7.5%2026-04-04 21:19
Betr (AU)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.85%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.15%7.9%2026-04-04 14:14
Smarkets◎1.67I 59.88%NM 55.47%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.53%8.0%2026-04-04 21:19
BetRivers🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%8.2%2026-04-03 01:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%9.4%2026-04-04 21:24