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Manitoba Moose v Tucson Roadrunners

Kickoff: 2026-03-21 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Manitoba Moose (Local)

Prediction 37.08%2.70fair odd
EV -5.44%
Edge -2.13%
Kelly -3.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.95%36.82%37.08%37.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.482.512.5543.48%40.30%39.84%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tucson Roadrunners (Visit)

Prediction 40.57%2.46fair odd
EV -5.87%
Edge -2.53%
Kelly -4.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.08%40.29%40.57%41.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.262.292.3247.62%44.27%43.76%43.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.34%4.48fair odd
EV -4.14%
Edge -0.966%
Kelly -1.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.46%22.88%22.34%24.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.993.954.2927.78%25.08%25.32%23.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Manitoba Moose (Local): 37.08%; Tucson Roadrunners (Visit): 40.57%; Draw: 22.34%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.48. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.29, with an expected value of -4.14%; they did not produce positive expected value.

9 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.43%EV -5.44%E -2.13%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.05%EV -5.87%E -2.53%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.52%EV -11.74%E -2.97%K -3.98%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-19 19:04
Unibet (NL)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.43%EV -5.44%E -2.13%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.05%EV -5.87%E -2.53%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.52%EV -11.74%E -2.97%K -3.98%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-19 19:04
Grosvenor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.43%EV -5.44%E -2.13%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.05%EV -5.87%E -2.53%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.52%EV -11.74%E -2.97%K -3.98%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-19 19:04
Casumo🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.43%EV -5.44%E -2.13%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.05%EV -5.87%E -2.53%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.52%EV -11.74%E -2.97%K -3.98%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-19 19:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.43%EV -5.44%E -2.13%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.05%EV -5.87%E -2.53%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.52%EV -11.74%E -2.97%K -3.98%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-19 19:04
Svenska Spel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.43%EV -5.44%E -2.13%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.05%EV -5.87%E -2.53%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.52%EV -11.74%E -2.97%K -3.98%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-19 19:05
GTbets🎯2.53I 39.53%NM 37.31%EV -6.19%E -2.44%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.69%EV -5.87%E -2.53%K -4.44%G +0.000%4.29I 23.31%NM 22.00%EV -4.14%E -0.966%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-20 20:30
1xBet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.16%EV -6.56%E -2.60%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.05%EV -9.92%E -4.47%K -8.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -10.62%E -2.66%K -3.54%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-21 15:24
Unibet (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.18%EV -7.30%E -2.92%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 40.95%EV -7.89%E -3.48%K -6.22%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -5.04%E -1.19%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-21 09:45
Tipico (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.95%EV -7.30%E -2.92%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.08%EV -6.68%E -2.90%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -19.56%E -5.43%K -7.52%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-21 16:04
Betway🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.02%EV -9.15%E -3.74%K -6.31%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.31%EV -8.71%E -3.87%K -6.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.67%EV -10.62%E -2.66%K -3.54%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-21 07:54
LeoVegas🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.69%EV -9.15%E -3.74%K -6.31%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.96%EV -8.71%E -3.87%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.35%EV -13.98%E -3.63%K -4.90%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-19 19:04
Codere (IT)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.14%EV -9.89%E -4.07%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 40.84%EV -10.33%E -4.67%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.01%EV -8.39%E -2.05%K -2.71%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-21 07:54
Winamax (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.56%EV -11.01%E -4.59%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.98%EV -10.74%E -4.88%K -8.95%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.46%EV -6.16%E -1.47%K -1.92%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-21 07:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 36.83%EV -13.97%E -6.02%K -10.58%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.69%EV -14.79%E -7.04%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.48%EV -15.09%E -3.97%K -5.39%G +0.000%17.0%2026-03-21 18:31
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.45%EV -14.71%E -6.40%K -11.32%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.02%EV -14.79%E -7.04%K -13.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.53%EV -10.62%E -2.66%K -3.54%G +0.000%16.1%2026-03-21 07:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (9)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.89I 52.91%NM 52.99%2.13I 46.95%NM 47.01%-0.1%2026-03-21 16:35
Bet Right🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.42%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.58%5.4%2026-03-21 18:19
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%5.6%2026-03-20 05:14
betPARX🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.26%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.74%7.4%2026-03-19 19:04
Bally Bet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.26%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.74%7.4%2026-03-19 19:04
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%7.9%2026-03-19 19:14
BetRivers🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.25%1.79I 55.87%NM 51.75%7.9%2026-03-19 19:04
Betr (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%8.2%2026-03-20 19:04
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.23%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.77%9.1%2026-03-21 16:55