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Manitoba Moose v Toronto Marlies

Kickoff: 2026-03-07 01:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Manitoba Moose (Local)

Prediction 34.53%2.90fair odd
EV -5.04%
Edge -1.83%
Kelly -2.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.24%34.22%34.53%36.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.582.582.7541.67%38.70%38.83%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Toronto Marlies (Visit)

Prediction 42.66%2.34fair odd
EV -2.73%
Edge -1.20%
Kelly -2.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.73%43.15%42.66%44.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.962.162.192.2851.02%46.27%45.77%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.81%4.38fair odd
EV -6.49%
Edge -1.58%
Kelly -2.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.89%22.64%22.81%23.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.653.994.044.1027.40%25.09%24.72%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Manitoba Moose (Local): 34.53%; Toronto Marlies (Visit): 42.66%; Draw: 22.81%. For Toronto Marlies (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.34. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.28, with an expected value of -2.73%; they did not produce positive expected value.

7 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.35%EV -5.04%E -1.83%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.55%EV -5.29%E -2.38%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.09I 24.45%NM 23.10%EV -6.72%E -1.64%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-07 00:09
Unibet (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.52%EV -6.77%E -2.51%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.75%EV -6.99%E -3.21%K -5.93%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -6.49%E -1.58%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-06 01:10
Tipico (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.24%EV -6.77%E -2.51%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.87%EV -14.67%E -7.34%K -14.67%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.89%EV -6.49%E -1.58%K -2.09%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-06 21:35
1xBet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.65%EV -8.50%E -3.21%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 41.93%EV -6.57%E -3.00%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 23.42%EV -10.59%E -2.70%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-06 22:44
Betway🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.54%EV -8.50%E -3.21%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -8.27%E -3.85%K -7.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.88%EV -8.77%E -2.19%K -2.92%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-06 05:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.62%EV -10.22%E -3.93%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.87%EV -10.41%E -4.96%K -9.46%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.51%EV -8.77%E -2.19%K -2.92%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-05 17:30
Codere (IT)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.57%EV -10.22%E -3.93%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.39%EV -9.55%E -4.51%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.04%EV -11.05%E -2.83%K -3.81%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-05 17:35
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.49%EV -11.95%E -4.69%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.81%EV -2.73%E -1.20%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%EV -6.49%E -1.58%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-05 01:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.49%EV -11.95%E -4.69%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.81%EV -2.73%E -1.20%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%EV -6.49%E -1.58%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-05 01:04
Casumo🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.49%EV -11.95%E -4.69%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.81%EV -2.73%E -1.20%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%EV -6.49%E -1.58%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-05 01:05
Grosvenor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.49%EV -11.95%E -4.69%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.81%EV -2.73%E -1.20%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%EV -6.49%E -1.58%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-05 01:05
Betclic (FR)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 34.40%EV -14.37%E -5.79%K -9.71%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 42.23%EV -13.82%E -6.84%K -13.55%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.37%EV -16.75%E -4.59%K -6.32%G +0.000%17.2%2026-03-07 00:37
LeoVegas🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.58%EV -15.40%E -6.29%K -10.62%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.73%EV -6.14%E -2.79%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.69%EV -9.91%E -2.51%K -3.36%G +0.000%11.6%2026-03-05 01:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 34.81%EV -17.13%E -7.14%K -12.23%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 42.62%EV -16.38%E -8.36%K -17.06%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 22.58%EV -15.61%E -4.22%K -5.78%G +0.000%19.7%2026-03-05 17:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (7)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Bet Right🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%5.3%2026-03-06 22:44
Bovada🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%6.3%2026-03-05 19:14
William Hill🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%7.6%2026-03-05 10:35
BetRivers🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.98%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.02%8.0%2026-03-05 01:04
Betr (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%8.1%2026-03-06 01:10
Smarkets◎2.02I 49.50%NM 45.70%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.30%8.3%2026-03-06 14:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%8.8%2026-03-06 01:10