The School of Odds
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Manitoba Moose v Texas Stars

Kickoff: 2026-10-18 19:06 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Manitoba Moose (Local)

Prediction 45.22%2.21fair odd
EV +3.10%
Edge +1.36%
Kelly +2.42%
Growth +0.075%

assuming max odds 2.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.61%44.59%45.22%46.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.902.132.132.2852.63%46.84%46.84%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Texas Stars (Visit)

Prediction 33.50%2.98fair odd
EV -6.20%
Edge -2.21%
Kelly -3.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.04%34.02%33.50%37.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.562.502.8042.55%39.10%40.00%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.28%4.70fair odd
EV -6.37%
Edge -1.45%
Kelly -1.87%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.51%21.39%21.28%22.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.164.204.4026.67%24.01%23.81%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Manitoba Moose (Local): 45.22%; Texas Stars (Visit): 33.50%; Draw: 21.28%. For Manitoba Moose (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.21. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.28, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.10%.

9 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.67%EV +3.10%E +1.36%K +2.42%G +0.075%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.09%EV -16.25%E -6.50%K -10.83%G +0.000%4.17I 23.98%NM 22.24%EV -11.26%E -2.70%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-18 18:34
Unibet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.61%EV +3.10%E +1.36%K +2.42%G +0.075%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.34%EV -16.92%E -6.82%K -11.43%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.05%EV -10.62%E -2.53%K -3.32%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-18 18:34
Grosvenor🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.61%EV +3.10%E +1.36%K +2.42%G +0.075%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.34%EV -16.92%E -6.82%K -11.43%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.05%EV -10.62%E -2.53%K -3.32%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-18 18:34
Casumo🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.61%EV +3.10%E +1.36%K +2.42%G +0.075%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.34%EV -16.92%E -6.82%K -11.43%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.05%EV -10.62%E -2.53%K -3.32%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-18 18:34
Unibet (NL)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.61%EV +3.10%E +1.36%K +2.42%G +0.075%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.34%EV -16.92%E -6.82%K -11.43%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.05%EV -10.62%E -2.53%K -3.32%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-18 18:34
Svenska Spel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.61%EV +3.10%E +1.36%K +2.42%G +0.075%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.34%EV -16.92%E -6.82%K -11.43%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.05%EV -10.62%E -2.53%K -3.32%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-18 18:34
ATG (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.61%EV +3.10%E +1.36%K +2.42%G +0.075%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.34%EV -16.92%E -6.82%K -11.43%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.05%EV -10.62%E -2.53%K -3.32%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-18 18:34
Codere (IT)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.05%EV -3.23%E -1.51%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.00%EV -16.25%E -6.50%K -10.83%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.95%EV -12.75%E -3.11%K -4.11%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-18 16:15
1xBet🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 43.87%EV -3.68%E -1.73%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 34.74%EV -9.88%E -3.67%K -5.85%G +0.000%4.37I 22.88%NM 21.38%EV -7.01%E -1.60%K -2.08%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-18 18:59
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 41.34%EV -7.30%E -3.56%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.06%EV -21.27%E -9.05%K -15.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.60%EV -20.20%E -5.39%K -7.35%G +0.000%18.0%2026-10-18 18:34
Unibet (UK)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.86%EV -8.66%E -4.29%K -8.49%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.09%EV -6.20%E -2.21%K -3.44%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.05%EV -6.37%E -1.45%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-18 19:04
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.61%EV -9.56%E -4.78%K -9.56%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.17%EV -7.87%E -2.86%K -4.50%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.22%EV -8.50%E -1.98%K -2.57%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-18 19:04
Tipico (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.82%EV -9.56%E -4.78%K -9.56%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.83%EV -11.22%E -4.23%K -6.80%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.35%EV -10.62%E -2.53%K -3.32%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-18 18:59
Betclic (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.99%EV -9.56%E -4.78%K -9.56%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.39%EV -16.25%E -6.50%K -10.83%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.62%EV -19.14%E -5.04%K -6.83%G +0.000%16.3%2026-10-18 19:04
Winamax (DE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.05%EV -11.37%E -5.80%K -11.85%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.43%EV -9.55%E -3.54%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -6.37%E -1.45%K -1.87%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-18 19:04
Winamax (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 45.21%EV -14.08%E -7.41%K -15.65%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.04%EV -12.90%E -4.96%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.75%EV -15.94%E -4.04%K -5.40%G +0.000%16.4%2026-10-18 19:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (9)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Bet Right🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%5.1%2026-10-18 18:34
theScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%5.3%2026-10-18 19:04
Betr (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%7.1%2026-10-18 18:59
Smarkets◎1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%7.8%2026-10-18 18:30
betPARX🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.29%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.71%8.0%2026-10-18 18:34
Bally Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.29%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.71%8.0%2026-10-18 18:30
BetRivers🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.30%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.70%8.6%2026-10-18 18:34
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.99%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.01%9.1%2026-10-18 18:39
Kalshi◎1.27I 78.74%NM 51.53%1.35I 74.07%NM 48.47%52.8%2026-10-18 19:04