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Manitoba Moose v Texas Stars

Kickoff: 2026-04-12 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Manitoba Moose (Local)

Prediction 35.37%2.83fair odd
EV -4.49%
Edge -1.66%
Kelly -2.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.84%35.02%35.37%36.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.572.632.7043.48%38.84%38.10%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Texas Stars (Visit)

Prediction 41.28%2.42fair odd
EV -5.89%
Edge -2.58%
Kelly -4.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.54%41.74%41.28%43.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.212.232.2850.00%45.33%44.84%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.35%4.28fair odd
EV -3.34%
Edge -0.806%
Kelly -1.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.42%23.24%23.35%23.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.873.904.1427.78%25.86%25.64%24.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Manitoba Moose (Local): 35.37%; Texas Stars (Visit): 41.28%; Draw: 23.35%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.28. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.14, with an expected value of -3.34%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.93%EV -4.49%E -1.66%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.29%EV -7.95%E -3.57%K -6.47%G +0.000%4.14I 24.15%NM 22.78%EV -3.34%E -0.806%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-11 09:34
Unibet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.19%EV -6.26%E -2.36%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.90%EV -5.89%E -2.58%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -8.94%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 18:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.19%EV -6.26%E -2.36%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.90%EV -5.89%E -2.58%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -8.94%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 18:50
PMU (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.19%EV -6.26%E -2.36%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.90%EV -5.89%E -2.58%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -8.94%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 18:50
Grosvenor🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.19%EV -6.26%E -2.36%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.90%EV -5.89%E -2.58%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -8.94%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 18:50
Casumo🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.19%EV -6.26%E -2.36%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.90%EV -5.89%E -2.58%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -8.94%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 18:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.19%EV -6.26%E -2.36%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.90%EV -5.89%E -2.58%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -8.94%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 18:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.19%EV -6.26%E -2.36%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.90%EV -5.89%E -2.58%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -8.94%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 18:50
Tipico (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.84%EV -6.26%E -2.36%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -15.38%E -7.50%K -14.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.42%EV -6.60%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-12 18:30
Unibet (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -8.03%E -3.09%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.19%EV -7.13%E -3.17%K -5.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -6.60%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-11 19:03
Codere (IT)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.38%EV -9.80%E -3.84%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 41.19%EV -9.60%E -4.39%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.43%EV -10.11%E -2.63%K -3.55%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-11 07:59
LeoVegas🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.22%EV -9.80%E -3.84%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.83%EV -9.19%E -4.18%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.95%EV -12.44%E -3.32%K -4.52%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-12 18:50
Betway🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.22%EV -9.80%E -3.84%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.83%EV -9.19%E -4.18%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.95%EV -12.44%E -3.32%K -4.52%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-11 23:04
1xBet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.15%EV -10.86%E -4.31%K -7.14%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.85%EV -7.95%E -3.57%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 23.00%EV -7.54%E -1.90%K -2.55%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-12 18:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -11.56%E -4.63%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.71%EV -11.25%E -5.23%K -9.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.42%EV -6.60%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-11 08:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.58%EV -13.33%E -5.44%K -9.20%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.54%EV -11.25%E -5.23%K -9.79%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.88%EV -14.78%E -4.05%K -5.58%G +0.000%14.7%2026-04-12 18:50
Betclic (FR)🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 35.40%EV -14.39%E -5.95%K -10.14%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.80%EV -13.32%E -6.34%K -12.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.80%EV -15.94%E -4.43%K -6.13%G +0.000%16.7%2026-04-12 18:43
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 35.86%EV -18.64%E -8.10%K -14.34%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 41.24%EV -17.45%E -8.72%K -17.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 22.91%EV -15.94%E -4.43%K -6.13%G +0.000%21.3%2026-04-11 08:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61%1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39%1.0%2026-04-12 18:45
Bet Right🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%5.1%2026-04-12 00:20
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%5.6%2026-04-12 13:19
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%7.8%2026-04-11 03:00
Bally Bet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.04%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.96%7.9%2026-04-12 18:50
betPARX🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.04%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.96%7.9%2026-04-12 18:50
Betr (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%8.1%2026-04-11 21:50
BetRivers🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.17%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.83%8.2%2026-04-12 18:50
Smarkets◎1.96I 51.02%NM 47.17%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.83%8.2%2026-04-12 07:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.01%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.99%9.1%2026-04-11 19:05