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Manitoba Moose v Milwaukee Admirals

Kickoff: 2026-04-09 00:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Manitoba Moose (Local)

Prediction 34.86%2.87fair odd
EV -2.38%
Edge -0.851%
Kelly -1.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.33%34.86%34.02%37.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.692.752.8041.67%37.20%36.36%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Milwaukee Admirals (Visit)

Prediction 42.98%2.33fair odd
EV -5.44%
Edge -2.47%
Kelly -4.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.53%42.98%43.70%44.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.982.132.152.2050.51%46.87%46.62%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.16%4.51fair odd
EV -3.39%
Edge -0.778%
Kelly -1.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.26%22.16%22.28%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.703.933.854.3627.03%25.43%25.97%22.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Manitoba Moose (Local): 34.86%; Milwaukee Admirals (Visit): 42.98%; Draw: 22.16%. For Manitoba Moose (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.87. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.80, with an expected value of -2.38%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -2.38%E -0.851%K -1.32%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.42%EV -5.44%E -2.47%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.24%EV -14.69%E -3.82%K -5.16%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-08 21:50
Casumo🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -2.38%E -0.851%K -1.32%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.42%EV -5.44%E -2.47%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.24%EV -14.69%E -3.82%K -5.16%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-08 21:50
Grosvenor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -2.38%E -0.851%K -1.32%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.42%EV -5.44%E -2.47%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.24%EV -14.69%E -3.82%K -5.16%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-08 21:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -2.38%E -0.851%K -1.32%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.42%EV -5.44%E -2.47%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.24%EV -14.69%E -3.82%K -5.16%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-08 21:50
PMU (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -2.38%E -0.851%K -1.32%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.42%EV -5.44%E -2.47%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.24%EV -14.69%E -3.82%K -5.16%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-08 21:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -2.38%E -0.851%K -1.32%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.42%EV -5.44%E -2.47%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.24%EV -14.69%E -3.82%K -5.16%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-08 21:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -2.38%E -0.851%K -1.32%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.42%EV -5.44%E -2.47%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.24%EV -14.69%E -3.82%K -5.16%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-08 21:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.02%EV -4.13%E -1.50%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.71%EV -8.02%E -3.75%K -7.04%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.27%EV -6.94%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-08 23:59
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.37%EV -4.13%E -1.50%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.69%EV -9.74%E -4.64%K -8.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.94%EV -11.37%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-08 23:59
1xBet🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 34.16%EV -4.48%E -1.63%K -2.57%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 44.37%EV -9.31%E -4.41%K -8.39%G +0.000%4.36I 22.94%NM 21.47%EV -3.39%E -0.778%K -1.01%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-08 23:59
LeoVegas🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.43%EV -5.87%E -2.17%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 42.18%EV -8.02%E -3.75%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.39%EV -18.02%E -4.87%K -6.67%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-08 21:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.45%EV -9.36%E -3.60%K -5.85%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.70%EV -11.89%E -5.80%K -11.33%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.85%EV -9.15%E -2.23%K -2.95%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-09 00:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.75%EV -12.84%E -5.14%K -8.56%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.38%EV -11.89%E -5.80%K -11.33%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.86%EV -15.80%E -4.16%K -5.64%G +0.000%15.1%2026-04-08 23:49
Winamax (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.44%EV -12.84%E -5.14%K -8.56%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 43.48%EV -14.90%E -7.53%K -15.20%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.08%EV -13.59%E -3.48%K -4.68%G +0.000%16.1%2026-04-08 23:59
Betclic (FR)🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 34.60%EV -13.89%E -5.62%K -9.45%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 42.31%EV -13.18%E -6.53%K -12.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.10%EV -18.02%E -4.87%K -6.67%G +0.000%17.0%2026-04-08 23:49
Tipico (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.21%EV -16.33%E -6.80%K -11.66%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.53%EV -7.59%E -3.53%K -6.60%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.26%EV -6.94%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-08 23:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%0.9%2026-04-09 00:00
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%5.0%2026-04-09 00:00
Bet Right🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%5.1%2026-04-08 22:40
betPARX🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%7.3%2026-04-08 09:59
Bally Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%7.3%2026-04-08 10:00
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%7.8%2026-04-08 05:00
BetRivers🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.45%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.55%7.8%2026-04-08 10:00
Betr (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%8.1%2026-04-08 05:00
Smarkets◎2.02I 49.50%NM 45.70%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.30%8.3%2026-04-08 22:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%8.8%2026-04-08 23:50