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Manitoba Moose v Iowa Wild

Kickoff: 2026-02-22 20:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Manitoba Moose (Local)

Prediction 53.05%1.89fair odd
EV -4.52%
Edge -2.51%
Kelly -5.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.51%53.26%53.05%54.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.741.751.8061.73%57.55%56.98%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Iowa Wild (Visit)

Prediction 25.27%3.96fair odd
EV -3.98%
Edge -1.05%
Kelly -1.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.51%24.99%25.27%26.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.573.553.8030.30%28.00%28.17%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.69%4.61fair odd
EV -1.33%
Edge -0.293%
Kelly -0.375%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.52%21.76%21.69%23.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.154.104.5525.97%24.09%24.39%21.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Manitoba Moose (Local): 53.05%; Iowa Wild (Visit): 25.27%; Draw: 21.69%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.61. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.55, with an expected value of -1.33%; they did not produce positive expected value.

11 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.39%EV -4.52%E -2.51%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.05%EV -10.30%E -2.90%K -4.04%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.56%EV -11.09%E -2.70%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-22 20:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.39%EV -4.52%E -2.51%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.05%EV -10.30%E -2.90%K -4.04%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.56%EV -11.09%E -2.70%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-22 20:00
Grosvenor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.39%EV -4.52%E -2.51%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.05%EV -10.30%E -2.90%K -4.04%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.56%EV -11.09%E -2.70%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-22 20:00
Casumo🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.39%EV -4.52%E -2.51%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.05%EV -10.30%E -2.90%K -4.04%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.56%EV -11.09%E -2.70%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-22 20:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.39%EV -4.52%E -2.51%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.05%EV -10.30%E -2.90%K -4.04%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.56%EV -11.09%E -2.70%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-22 20:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.39%EV -4.52%E -2.51%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.05%EV -10.30%E -2.90%K -4.04%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.56%EV -11.09%E -2.70%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-22 20:00
LeoVegas🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.51%EV -5.58%E -3.13%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.44%EV -14.09%E -4.14%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.05%EV -15.43%E -3.96%K -5.32%G +0.000%11.2%2026-02-22 20:00
GTbets🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.56%EV -6.64%E -3.77%K -8.73%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.07%EV -4.99%E -1.33%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.41I 22.68%NM 21.37%EV -4.37%E -0.990%K -1.28%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-22 20:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -7.17%E -4.10%K -9.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -6.51%E -1.76%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.45%EV -5.67%E -1.30%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-22 19:59
1xBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.41%EV -8.76%E -5.09%K -12.17%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.02%EV -5.50%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.57%EV -1.33%E -0.293%K -0.375%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-22 19:59
Betway🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 52.88%EV -9.29%E -5.43%K -13.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.84%EV -11.56%E -3.30%K -4.63%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.28%EV -7.84%E -1.84%K -2.41%G +0.000%10.6%2026-02-22 20:00
Codere (IT)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 52.67%EV -9.29%E -5.43%K -13.08%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.37%EV -10.30%E -2.90%K -4.04%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.97%EV -11.09%E -2.70%K -3.58%G +0.000%11.0%2026-02-22 20:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.40%EV -11.94%E -7.19%K -18.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.08%EV -9.04%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.52%EV -4.58%E -1.04%K -1.35%G +0.000%10.7%2026-02-22 20:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.15%EV -12.47%E -7.56%K -19.19%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.51%EV -3.98%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -13.26%E -3.31%K -4.42%G +0.000%11.9%2026-02-22 20:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 52.00%EV -13.00%E -7.93%K -20.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.84%EV -16.62%E -5.04%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.15%EV -16.51%E -4.29%K -5.79%G +0.000%17.3%2026-02-22 19:59
Winamax (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 53.54%EV -14.06%E -8.68%K -22.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.78%EV -11.56%E -3.30%K -4.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.68%EV -13.26%E -3.31%K -4.42%G +0.000%15.3%2026-02-22 20:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (11)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.49I 67.11%NM 65.75%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.25%2.1%2026-02-22 20:00
Bet Right🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%5.3%2026-02-22 19:59
theScore Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%5.8%2026-02-22 20:00
Bovada🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%6.5%2026-02-22 19:59
betPARX🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.43%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.57%7.2%2026-02-22 20:00
Bally Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.43%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.57%7.2%2026-02-22 20:00
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%7.6%2026-02-22 19:59
Betr (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%7.6%2026-02-22 19:59
BetRivers🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.97%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.03%8.0%2026-02-22 20:00
Smarkets◎1.44I 69.44%NM 64.00%2.56I 39.06%NM 36.00%8.5%2026-02-22 19:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.68%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%8.9%2026-02-22 19:59