The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Manitoba Moose v Grand Rapids Griffins

Kickoff: 2026-04-04 19:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Manitoba Moose (Local)

Prediction 26.93%3.71fair odd
EV -5.74%
Edge -1.64%
Kelly -2.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.47%27.18%26.93%28.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.373.423.5032.26%29.67%29.20%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Grand Rapids Griffins (Visit)

Prediction 50.81%1.97fair odd
EV -3.97%
Edge -2.10%
Kelly -4.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.89

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.24%50.56%50.81%51.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.741.821.841.8957.47%54.93%54.35%52.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.26%4.49fair odd
EV -3.60%
Edge -0.832%
Kelly -1.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.59%22.27%22.26%23.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.003.954.3327.03%25.03%25.32%23.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Manitoba Moose (Local): 26.93%; Grand Rapids Griffins (Visit): 50.81%; Draw: 22.26%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.49. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.33, with an expected value of -3.60%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -5.74%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.19%EV -7.02%E -3.84%K -8.46%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.04%EV -5.38%E -1.27%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-04 19:04
Unibet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -5.74%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 49.94%EV -5.50%E -2.96%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.52%EV -12.06%E -3.05%K -4.09%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-04 08:39
Unibet (NL)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -5.74%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.08%EV -6.01%E -3.25%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.45%EV -12.06%E -3.05%K -4.09%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-04 08:39
Casumo🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -5.74%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.08%EV -6.01%E -3.25%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.45%EV -12.06%E -3.05%K -4.09%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-04 08:39
Grosvenor🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -5.74%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.08%EV -6.01%E -3.25%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.45%EV -12.06%E -3.05%K -4.09%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-04 08:39
ATG (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -5.74%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.08%EV -6.01%E -3.25%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.45%EV -12.06%E -3.05%K -4.09%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-04 08:39
Svenska Spel🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -5.74%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.08%EV -6.01%E -3.25%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.45%EV -12.06%E -3.05%K -4.09%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-04 08:39
PMU (FR)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -5.74%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.08%EV -6.01%E -3.25%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.45%EV -12.06%E -3.05%K -4.09%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-04 08:39
GTbets🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.61%EV -7.09%E -2.05%K -2.89%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.40%EV -3.97%E -2.10%K -4.47%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.00%EV -3.60%E -0.832%K -1.08%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-04 11:04
Betway🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -8.44%E -2.48%K -3.52%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.52%EV -8.55%E -4.75%K -10.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -10.95%E -2.74%K -3.65%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-04 19:00
LeoVegas🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.80%EV -9.78%E -2.92%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.88%EV -8.55%E -4.75%K -10.68%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.32%EV -14.29%E -3.71%K -5.01%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-04 08:39
1xBet🎯3.32I 30.12%NM 28.16%EV -10.59%E -3.19%K -4.56%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 50.26%EV -5.50%E -2.96%K -6.39%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.59%EV -3.60%E -0.832%K -1.08%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 19:00
Tipico (DE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.10%EV -11.13%E -3.37%K -4.84%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.10%EV -11.09%E -6.34%K -14.78%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.81%EV -8.72%E -2.13%K -2.81%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-04 16:28
Winamax (DE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -12.48%E -3.84%K -5.54%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.18%EV -8.55%E -4.75%K -10.68%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.03%EV -8.72%E -2.13%K -2.81%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-04 19:05
Codere (IT)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.10%EV -13.82%E -4.32%K -6.28%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.41%EV -7.53%E -4.14%K -9.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -10.95%E -2.74%K -3.65%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-04 08:39
Winamax (FR)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 27.39%EV -15.17%E -4.82%K -7.06%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 49.59%EV -11.60%E -6.66%K -15.67%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.01%EV -16.52%E -4.40%K -6.01%G +0.000%15.9%2026-04-04 19:04
Betclic (FR)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 27.39%EV -15.17%E -4.82%K -7.06%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 49.30%EV -11.09%E -6.34%K -14.78%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.32%EV -17.63%E -4.76%K -6.53%G +0.000%15.9%2026-04-04 19:00
Unibet (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.12%EV -16.52%E -5.33%K -7.86%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 49.24%EV -10.07%E -5.69%K -13.08%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.64%EV -14.29%E -3.71%K -5.01%G +0.000%14.7%2026-04-04 18:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Bet Right🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%5.0%2026-04-04 15:55
theScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%5.1%2026-04-04 18:59
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%6.7%2026-04-04 19:05
Betr (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%6.7%2026-04-04 08:39
Bally Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%7.5%2026-04-04 08:39
betPARX🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%7.5%2026-04-04 08:39
BetRivers🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.01%1.49I 67.11%NM 61.99%8.3%2026-04-04 08:39
Smarkets◎2.36I 42.37%NM 39.02%1.51I 66.23%NM 60.98%8.6%2026-04-04 08:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%1.48I 67.57%NM 61.86%9.2%2026-04-04 08:39
Kalshi◎2.38I 42.02%NM 38.18%1.47I 68.03%NM 61.82%10.0%2026-04-04 19:05