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Lehigh Valley Phantoms v Hartford Wolf Pack

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 23:16 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lehigh Valley Phantoms (Local)

Prediction 30.24%3.31fair odd
EV -4.74%
Edge -1.51%
Kelly -2.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.70%29.97%30.24%30.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.083.103.1533.90%32.49%32.26%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hartford Wolf Pack (Visit)

Prediction 47.66%2.10fair odd
EV -5.15%
Edge -2.59%
Kelly -5.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.99

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.30%47.91%47.66%49.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.761.901.941.9956.82%52.63%51.55%50.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.10%4.53fair odd
EV -1.66%
Edge -0.374%
Kelly -0.482%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.95%22.12%22.10%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.114.104.4526.32%24.32%24.39%22.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lehigh Valley Phantoms (Local): 30.24%; Hartford Wolf Pack (Visit): 47.66%; Draw: 22.10%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.53. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.45, with an expected value of -1.66%; they did not produce positive expected value.

9 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.55%EV -4.74%E -1.51%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.74%EV -7.06%E -3.62%K -7.43%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.71%EV -9.40%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-03 21:20
PMU (FR)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.48%EV -4.74%E -1.51%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.87%EV -7.54%E -3.89%K -8.02%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.65%EV -9.40%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-03 21:20
Grosvenor🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.48%EV -4.74%E -1.51%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.87%EV -7.54%E -3.89%K -8.02%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.65%EV -9.40%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-03 21:20
Casumo🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.48%EV -4.74%E -1.51%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.87%EV -7.54%E -3.89%K -8.02%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.65%EV -9.40%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-03 21:20
Unibet (NL)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.48%EV -4.74%E -1.51%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.87%EV -7.54%E -3.89%K -8.02%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.65%EV -9.40%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-03 21:20
ATG (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.48%EV -4.74%E -1.51%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.87%EV -7.54%E -3.89%K -8.02%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.65%EV -9.40%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-03 21:20
Svenska Spel🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.48%EV -4.74%E -1.51%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.87%EV -7.54%E -3.89%K -8.02%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.65%EV -9.40%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-03 21:20
1xBet🎯3.14I 31.85%NM 29.78%EV -5.04%E -1.61%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.21%EV -9.44%E -4.97%K -10.49%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.01%EV -1.66%E -0.374%K -0.482%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-03 23:04
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.83%EV -6.25%E -2.02%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.83%EV -12.78%E -6.98%K -15.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -11.61%E -2.90%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-03 17:05
GTbets🎯3.08I 32.47%NM 30.62%EV -6.86%E -2.23%K -3.30%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 47.39%EV -5.15%E -2.59%K -5.21%G +0.000%4.29I 23.31%NM 21.98%EV -5.20%E -1.21%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-03 09:49
Unibet (UK)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -7.77%E -2.55%K -3.79%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.91%EV -7.54%E -3.89%K -8.02%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.62%EV -4.98%E -1.16%K -1.51%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-03 09:50
Winamax (DE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.54%EV -7.77%E -2.55%K -3.79%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.51%EV -13.26%E -7.28%K -16.17%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.95%EV -4.98%E -1.16%K -1.51%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-03 23:05
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -9.28%E -3.09%K -4.64%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.30%EV -8.97%E -4.69%K -9.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.59%EV -11.61%E -2.90%K -3.87%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-03 23:09
Winamax (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 28.70%EV -9.28%E -3.09%K -4.64%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 48.93%EV -16.12%E -9.16%K -21.21%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.37%EV -14.92%E -3.88%K -5.24%G +0.000%16.1%2026-10-03 23:10
Codere (IT)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.48%EV -10.79%E -3.66%K -5.53%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 47.58%EV -9.92%E -5.25%K -11.15%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.93%EV -9.40%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-03 09:50
Unibet (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.33%EV -10.79%E -3.66%K -5.53%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 47.85%EV -10.87%E -5.81%K -12.50%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.82%EV -9.40%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-03 22:50
Betclic (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 29.28%EV -10.79%E -3.66%K -5.53%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 47.99%EV -14.21%E -7.89%K -17.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.73%EV -16.03%E -4.22%K -5.72%G +0.000%15.8%2026-10-03 23:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (9)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Bet Right🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%5.4%2026-10-03 17:51
theScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%5.4%2026-10-03 23:10
Betr (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%6.7%2026-10-03 17:50
Bally Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.63%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.38%8.0%2026-10-03 09:50
betPARX🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.63%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.38%8.0%2026-10-03 09:50
Smarkets◎2.26I 44.25%NM 40.84%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.16%8.4%2026-10-03 11:15
BetRivers🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.06%8.5%2026-10-03 09:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.21%9.0%2026-10-03 22:50
Kalshi◎1.61I 62.11%NM 43.31%1.23I 81.30%NM 56.69%43.4%2026-10-03 23:10